The race chart reported that Runnymeade (named for the site of the Magna Carta sealing by King John) took command and looked the winner, until "Apollo started a cyclonic rush an eighth of a mile from home." In victory Apollo became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a race in his two year old year - and the last.

Controversy over two year old racing continues to this day. Opponents feel that it places undue stress on the physique of the young animal. Racing economics dictates two year old racing; big purses are offered in juvenile events, and every trainer with a dream of a run for the roses knows his horse better get some experience early on.

Apollo's owner had his patience rewarded: his horse started twenty one times at three and thirty at four, winning twenty four! This must have been one tough customer.

The chart of the race that year also illustrates the important demarcation present in the Kentucky Derby: that last eighth of a mile, two hundred twenty yards of graveyard for pretenders. The roll of Derby also rans is replete with horses who were untouchable up to a mile and an eighth, but hit the wall when asked for that seemingly modest extension.

In Europe the classic distance is a mile and a half, the course followed by the English, Irish, and French Derbies. The icon of thoroughbred selection, Italian breeder Federico Tesio, averred that the value of pedigree could be found "at the winning post at Epsom," i.e. the winner of the English Derby. Tesio was born in the nineteenth century, but his theory is biblical to horsemen to this day.

The Wizard of Dormello, as he was known, saw his life's work immortalized through Nearco (undefeated in 14 starts) and Ribot (undefeated in 16 starts), two proponent sires whose genetic influence is seen every time a major race is run. He produced these two from modest means, and a foal crop of only about ten a year. From the brilliant Nearco flows the blood of Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and Roberto to name a few. Fewer in number and less refined, Ribot's stout horses are found through the offspring of Hoist the Flag, His Majesty, Graustark, and Pleasant Colony. Notwithstanding the hogwash written by the Dosage Merlin's, pedigree (genetics) does compose the classic horse.

On the subject of two year old racing, we are agnostic. Some animals are ready to run at two, and can do so with no damage to their physical and emotional health. Too many though are rushed into action prematurely, and see their careers ended or compromised.

As far as its relevance to winning the Derby, it's not easy to shrug off one hundred eleven years of precedent. Nonetheless it seems to us that it is experience, rather than two year old racing per se that is key; and it's tough to get all the needed experience in the sixteen weeks of the three year old year before the race.

Professionalism in the Derby hopeful is an absolute requisite; only the rigors of racing can produce it. And there, dear reader, lies the rub. The horse of the moment must arrive experienced but exuberant, tested by fire but without blemish, fit but fresh: an epitome of contradiction.

It is the challenge of selecting that horse that quickens the pulse every year at this time, sending a rush of excitement through the system. After almost forty years of Derby memories and fourteen years of writing this letter, we still agree: the most exciting two minutes in sports is the Kentucky Derby.

To our new readers, we repeat our mandate: to provide you with a wager of value. If all you want is the likely winner, read no further and buy a U.S.A. Today. Half of the hacks will pick Holy Bull (at even money), and the rest will pick Brocco (probably at 7-5). They were virtually unanimous on Arazi. We don't pick favorites: period.

The two favorites this year are genuine, and rekindle thoughts of the great East-West Derby shootout in 1955 between Nashua and Swaps (Swaps upset the favored Nashua). Once again the eastern horse will probably be the betting choice.

Holy Bull first got our attention when he whipped the then undefeated Dehere in the Futurity at Belmont last September. His veteran trainer, Jimmy Croll, guided our 1987 pick (Bet Twice, second) to the Derby. Holy Bull's owner was called to glory the day of the horse's first start (a portentous event for a son of Great Above); she bequeathed all her horses to the trainer. The colt's sire line: Great Above, Minnesota Mac, Rough 'N Tumble suggests an inability to get a mile and a quarter, but he picks up an interesting stamina influence through his dam. His running style is catch me if you can, his race record is sterling. The colt coasted in the Blue Grass, leading at every call. By all accounts, his tactic win be that of Spend A Buck ('85) and Winning Colors ('88) - go to the front and try to steal an easy lead. Those two were able to dictate the pace, unlikely in this year's field. Mike Smith, his rider, has moved to the top echelon of jockeys; don't count on him to do anything dumb.

Brocco is owned by octogenarian Albert "Cubby" Broccoli, producer of the James Bond films. The hope of the west is blessed with speed but need not have the lead. He also owns an upset win over the overraced and now injured Dehere (in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November; opponents of two year old racing, note). His Santa Anita Derby win, he was never touched by the whip, was as impressive as Holy Bull's Blue Grass. Sired by the hot Kris S. (two winners on Breeders' Cup Day: Brocco and Hollywood Wildcat), we wonder a bit about his damside pedigree. His rider, Gary Stevens, partnered Winning Colors to Derby glory, and is tops.

Unlike recent issues, we are not here to disparage the favorites; they are a deserving pair. If this were just any old race, we'd probably take a pass, and grab a cold one. But this is the Derby and duty calls: we'll try to beat them. A profile of the other leading contenders follows.

TABASCO CAT - Another speedball, trained by Derby perennial D. Wayne Lukas, which almost killed Lukas' son in a bizarre training accident. He came third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and hung tough to be second to Brocco in the Santa Anita Derby. His sire, Storm Cat, is a commercial dynamo due to the precocity of his get. Our view is a mile and a quarter is a bit of a reach for them (e.g.Summer Squall's second to our pick, Unbridled,in '90). Only one of Storm Cat's eighteen stakes winners has won at a mile and a quarter. Rider Pat Day is a very patient rider, but the speedy field and pedigree questions will make us look elsewhere. If he dies in the stretch, this cat will not bounce.

KANDALY - Louisiana Derby winner, by Alydar, reunites Risen Star connections Louis Roussel and Ronnie Lamarque. He is a closer but looked seriously overmatched in the Blue Grass. This horse was in training last winter at Fair Grounds under Nial O'Callahan. After the colt dusted Louis' then Derby hopeful, Roussel and Lamarque approached the owner, bought a half interest, and moved the horse to their digs. The colt not only Kandaly, he will daily; doubt he can rally against these. Which brings us to:

SMILIN SINGIN SAM - Our Cinderella horse. When Nial O'Callahan had Kandaly sold out from under him, he seemed to accept it with great equanimity; we think we know why. Kandaly was the second best three year old in his barn. We spotted Sam last winter in New Orleans, and were preparing to unload on him in the Louisiana Derby until a foot problem forced a scratch. He didn't start until the Renaington Derby where he clobbered the field, wire to wire at 23-l! He's not taken seriously since his sire, Smile, was primarily a sprinter (good enough to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint). His dam (a $235,000 yearling by The Minstrel is from a family loaded with stayers). He doesn't have to be on the lead. He'll need a lot of improvement to be a factor, but his odds will be huge; don't leave him out of your exactas. Uncle Sam wants you.

GO FOR GIN - We watched this horse very carefully through his winter in Florida. A three quarter brother to one of our all time favorites, Pleasant Tap, he is very consistent but has had a hard campaign. He chased Dehere and Holy Bull in Florida and gave a game effort against Irgun in the Wood. Trainer Nick Zito, of Strike The Gold fame, has talked himself into running here but we doubt the Derby will be the tonic for Gin.

BLUMIN AFFAIR - Finished second to Brocco in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and has steadily developed as a three year old under master horseman Jack van Berg. From the first crop of Dynaformer, an initially lightly regarded son of Roberto, both father and son have grown in stature this year. His second place finishes in the Remington and Arkansas Derbies showed considerable late kick, indicating he might like the Derby distance. Rider Eddie D. abandoned him for Strode's Creek, but Irgun's injury freed Jerry Bailey to ride, which is no loss.

STRODE'S CREEK - Trying to be the next Apollo, this horse was unraced at two, and will be making only his fifth lifetime start in the Derby. He looked like a horse that wanted to go on, running third to Brocco in the Santa Anita Derby. We would probably dismiss him were it not for his connections: Charlie Whittingham (two Derby wins), trainer; Eddie Delahoussaye (two Derby wins), jockey; Arthur Hancock (two Derby wins), owner. Fits the mold of an improving horse, and his sire, Halo, has fathered two Derby winners (Sunny's Halo, ('83) and Sunday Silence, ('89)). If Charlie's there, he must have a shot.

SOUTHERN RHYTHM - Son of the highly successful Dixieland Band, has snuck into the Derby picture with an impressive win in the Lexington over Soul of the Matter. Another who possesses a good late kick and cannot be dismissed. The owner is President of Service Corp., the undertakers. Connections are solid if unspectacular; no Derby winner has ever come out of the Lexington Stakes. Rhythm bettors may get the blues at a jazz funeral.

SOUL OF THE MATTER - A month ago we thought this might be our pick. Owned by song writer Burt Bacharach, he was our California sleeper until he swept by Brocco and Valiant Nature in the slop at Santa Anita to win the San Felipe. Trainer Dick Mandella is a hot property (trained Phone Chatter and Kotashaan to Breeders' Cup wins last fall), and jockey Kent Desormeaux rules the roost in California. The problem is the sole of the matter: bad feet. Foot problems forced a scratch in the Santa Anita Derby, and reports are that the problem resurfaced in his second place finish to Southern Rhythm in the Lexington. He could be dangerous if rain drops are falling on our heads.

THE OTHERS - ULISSES is usiless; MAHOGANY HALL wood if he could; MEADOW FLIGHT belongs in the field; POWIS CASTLE bettors will be rooked.

THE RACE - Any account of this year's renewal must begin (and maybe end) with Holy Bull. The Popes in Rome have issued edicts (not all holy) called bulls for centuries, so called because of the bura (seal) with which they become official. No leap of faith is required to believe in this year's favorite: he is a genuine racehorse. But denizens of the stock market can tell you that 1994 has not been a good one for the bulls, and we hope that this year's Derby bears out that trend.

When the gates spring, we expect Holy Bull to bounce out sharply, accompanied by Ulisses and possibly Smilin Singin Sam. Go for Gin and Brocco will be next with our choice nearby, along with Tabasco Cat. The next flight will include Southern Rhythm, Blumin Affair, and Strodes Creek. Kandaly and Soul of the Matter will trail. By the half mile pole, Ulisses will be gone, Go for Gin and Brocco will make their move on the leaders; our pick is moving into striking distance as they come into the turn. Now its Brocco, Holy Bull, and a stubborn Sam in front as we look for racing room. Blumin Affair and Southern Rhythm are moving rapidly from off the pace, as is Strode's Creek. Holy Bull leaves a cranny on the rail as our pick slips through. We take the lead away from H.B. who by now finds his pedigree too much to carry. The closers are in attack but Brocco and Sam hang tough. Finally we shake Smilin Singin Sam, who holds on for the place over Brocco. Soul of the Matter is fourth. With this many outstanding colts in the race, the winner must be possessed of a VALIANT NATURE!

OUR PICK- Valiant Nature broke his maiden at Hollywood Park on November 17 in his second start. His next start was an upset wire to wire win in the Hollywood Futurity over heavily favored Brocco. He was a head behind that one in his '94 debut in the San Felipe, as Soul of the Matter splashed home the winner in the mud at Santa Anita. In their two meetings, Brocco and Valiant Nature have been less than a total of a length apart. In both of those races, V.N. went straight to the lead. The rubber match with Brocco was expected to be the Santa Anita Derby, but V.N. was shipped to Kentucky to take a shot at Holy Bull in the Blue Grass. It was decided to change his running style, take him off the pace, relax him. Holy Bull was conceded the lead, took it, and neverlooked back. Our pick, meanwhile, ran second the whole trip, never threatening the winner, but well ahead of the rest (n.b., V.N. galloped out an additional one eighth of a mile after the finish of the mile and one eighth Blue Grass; Holy Bull hit the brakes at the wire). Neither horse was under anything but a hand ride. This was an experiment and it worked. Physically and genetically, Valiant Nature wants a mile and a quarter; now he has a running style to match. The transformation from speed horse to stalker is complete.

THE PEDIGREE - Valiant Nature is a full brother to turf champion Tight Spot, who took the sting out of more than one August trip to Del Mar for us. The sire is His Majesty, full brother to Graustark, and son of the great Ribot. His Majesty has sired one Derby winner, Pleasant Colony. V.N.'s dam, Premium Win (by Lyphard), a stakes winner in France, is inbred 4x4 to Nearco. Signore Tesio would be proud. And yes Dosage freaks, he qualifies: DI=1.1; CD=24.

THE TRAINER - Ron McAnally is at the top of his profession. Probably best remembered as the handler of the great John Henry, he has won numerous Breeders' Cup events. A multiple Eclipse Award winner and Hall of Fame inductee, he has saddled eight starters in the Kentucky Derby, but his best finish so far has been fourth. His moment is at hand: the product of a Kentucky orphanage winning the biggest event in horse racing will be a poignant Derby moment.

THE OWNER - Verne Winchell is a donut king, and once raced a horse by that name. In fact Donut King had a genuine chance to win the '62 Derby, but a last minute injury forced a scratch. The winner, Decidedly, had twice lost to Donut King. It was the best chance the Winchell-McAnally team has had in thirty two years - until now., This is the owner's third Derby trip; the most recent was Sea Cadet eighth ('91). He knows this race is no cream puff, the donut king's eyes won't glaze over this year. It will be a different twist; this horse doesn't have a hole in him. Know what I mean Verne?

THE JOCKEY - This will be the nineteenth time that Hall of Famer, Laffit Pincay, will get a leg up in the Derby. His only win was aboard Swale, ('84). He has ridden two of our picks in the past: Rumbo, second ('80); Stephan's Odyssey, second ('85). He also finished second to Secretariat ('73) and to Spectacular Bid ('79) on Sham and General Assembly respectively. At forty eight, the Pan aman native holds a long time reputation as a strong rider. He has an ability to exact the last full measure from his mounts; horses under Pincay always seem to have something left in the final strides. He is the only rider Valiant Nature has had - - or needed. Boot him home, Laffit!