Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 1995 - 16th Edition

The murderous hunchback´s desperate cry resonates with any handicapper trying to select this year´s Kentucky Derby winner. All horseplayers set their life upon a cast and only the best stand the hazard of the die for long. Our purpose here is to increase your chances of cashing a ticket; beyond that of a roll of the dice. At first glance, making a hard four would be easier than sorting out; this years field; but if we do, a hard four payoff will look like chump change.

As more and more of our life functions sink into cyberspace, your editor takes great comfort in knowing that handicapping the Kentucky Derby remains an art form immune from megabytes and gigaflops. The information highway for the Derby runs through Gulfstream, Santa Anita, and Keeneland: not through Windows, Dos, or Bob. For sure, computers are present in the handicapping process today; and Beyer Speed Figures and Thorograph Ratings have their adherents. Nonetheless it is our contention that subjective analysis of past performance through racing charts and video tape mill cash more tickets than the moderns will with their "figs." Pedigree analysis is also key, but the winner cannot, be found in an index number; the nuances of pedigree defy those mho would like it so.

This will be the sixteenth selection in our series; it is interesting to note that in that time warp, not one two year old champion has won. Yet that individual won the three years previous to our letter (Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid). In fact the 70´s produced three other two year old champion Derby winners: Riva Ridge, Secretariat, and Foolish Pleasure. We think it should have produced a fourth in Honest, Pleasure (second to Bold Forbes in ´76) but that´s another story. This year Timber Country inherits the jinx of the 80´s and the 90´s thus far.

One possible explanation for the trend could be the importance of the Breeders´ Cup, inaugurated in 19B4. Winning the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Colt Race is tantamount to the two year old championship (seven of the ten winners of the race have been named two year old champion). Could it bc that horses are pushed too hard to be ready for this race? Don´t know, Spend a Buck and AIysheba finished third in their Juvenile efforts before getting the roses in Louisville.

Before we tackle this years assignment;, an epilogue of the previous year´s selection is appropriate. This time last year we were still a little smug over Sea Hero´s ´93 upset. We thought we had another in Valiant Nature, which we did not . He was laying a comfortable fourth when the announcer acclaimed, "Something has happened to Valiant Nature!" Something indeed had happened. A roller derby like collision spun the horse 180 degrees and could have been fatal to horse and rider. It was certainly fatal to us; long hours of work down the drain in a nano second. We are not filled with thoughts of what if, however. Unlike some of our other Derby non-winning selections who went on to greatness (e.g. Vanlandingham, Bet Twice, Best Pal, and Devil His Due), Valiant Nature peaked at two. No regrets for not picking Go 1"or Gin. He caught a muddy track and a group of riders willing to concede him an easy lead. His previous and subsequent form is more indicative of his quality than his Derby.. Eventual three year old champion Holy Bull was buried in the back of the pack. Goodbye ´94.

California has the highest, quality of racing competition and consequently the Santa Anita Derby winner is normally thrust into favoritism; or close to it. In fact the last horse to parlay the two races was Sunday Silence (´89), a distant second choice to two year old champion Easy Goer (never underestimate the power of the Eastern press). Well here is the opening salvo of this year´s analysis: the 1995 Kentucky Derby winner will not be found in the field of the Santa Anita Derby. No where, at all, nada, get it? Three of the first four finishers will start, and they will be wheezing like Rush Limbaugh climbing a broken escalator by the finish line (or sooner). The best news for us cognescenti is that they will be some of the shortest prices on the board.

Watching the finish of the Santa Anita Derby, the untrained eye saw Afternoon Deelites grudgingly giving way to a determined Larry The Legend with Jumron flying on the outside of a gaining Timber Country. What in fact happened was four horses crawling through the stretch (the last three eighth in 37 4/5) with some crawling slower than others. To put this in perspective, this is approximately the speed at which O.J. Simpson traveled between Bundy and Rockingham. And they have to go another 220 yards in Louisville!

There should be four Derby starters coming out of the Santa Anita Derby, but the winner (Larry the Legend) has a bone chip which proves that Hollywood scripts seldom take life on the race track. The trainer was among the creditors of a bankrupted client; the judge allowed him to use the uncollected balance to bid on the thoroughbreds ordered auctioned by the court. He purchased a yearling for $2500 and named it after his brother Larry, who had earned his sobriquet by twice coaching the winner of the Little World Series. Larry (the horse) is genuine and would have brought a lot of color to this year´s event. We hope he returns to the races later this year; but the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance has passed for Larry.

Despite all the previous bombast, this year´s Derby has more potential winners than any in our memory. Every year we begin the selection process by enumerating the throwouts, those horses totally outclassed or genetically incapable of running a mile and a quarter in racehorse time. Believe us, the bell curve works in thoroughbred selection. Unfortunately, this year´s list of throwouts totals zero. There are several highly unlikelies but we are not prepared to put impossible next to any names. So with a silent prayer for divine inspiration in this most sacred of undertakings, herewith a review of the field followed by our trepidity laden selection.

TIMBER COUNTRY - The two year old champ from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, a place chock full of number one draft picks. All auctioned horses are free agents and D. Wayne comes to the sales like George Steinbrenner. T.C. leaped into Derby favoritism with his Breeders´ Cup Juvenile win but is 0 for 3 at three, but never fear D. Wayne can explain. "He´ll get a lot out of this, and this is the first Saturday in March, not the first Saturday in May" (after a third to Larry the Legend in the San Rafael). "We´re moving him up notch by notch and he´s really on his game. Now is the time to get serious." (after a second to Afternoon Deelites in the San Felipe). "Trust me. He´s the horse to beat. This is a whole new ball game" (after a fourth to Larry the Legend in the Santa Anita Derby). Wayne is great copy but this horse has not come close to duplicating his Breeders´ Cup form. We kept hearing reports that the horse couldn´t get a hold of the speed favoring Santa Anita surface; well, we were present when he got his maiden win at Del Mar last August and he handled that track just fine. Notwithstanding Hansel, offspring of Woodman have had a tendency to not go on at three: ominous.

SERENA´S SONG - The only filly in the race will run as an entry with T.C. We bet her in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies where she just missed (at 7-1) against champion Flanders (retired). She blew away the colts in the Jim Beam but we wonder whether she wants a mile and a quarter. Almost without question the pacesetter, Lukas´ decision to skip the Oaks for the Derby may say more about T.C. than about Serena´s Song. Also a filly named Urbane almost caught her in the Santa Anita Oaks; and she is headed for Kentucky. Sounds crazy but the Derby could be a softer spot.

TALKIN´ MAN - The Canadian two year old champion was not, as far as we know, named for D. Wayne Lukas. Looked like the winner turning for home in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile when he stopped abruptly. Diagnosed with an infection, he wintered in South Florida during recovery. Shipped to Aqueduct and demolished the fields in the Gotham and the Wood Memorial off of nothing but works. Admittedly these were weak horses but he did it effortlessly. By Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval, his pedigree says a mile and a quarter should suit; remember though he likes the front end and he´ll have plenty of company there. Will be at worst second betting choice behind the entry and likewise offers little betting value. Trainer Attfield and jock Smith are tops.

AFTERNOON DEELITES - This colt burst onto the scene with a win in the Hollywood Futurity that had the fig crowd in a state of ecstasy rivaling a medieval saint. Tasted defeat for the first time to Larry by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby. Owned by balladist Burt Bachrach, who has had more trainers than wives, running style and pedigree raise stamina questions. When Bachrach had horses with Charlie Whittingham, he once questioned the appearance of one of his charges suggesting to the Hall of Famer that the horse might need to be wormed. The great man suggested to Burt that, in view of his recent dearth of hit songs, maybe he should have his piano wormed. Again, we can certainly create a scenario where this horse wins; and trainer Dick Mandella and jockey Kent Desormeaux (just became the youngest rider, at twenty five, to win three thousand races) are as hot as any combo in the country. Still this is not the value horse.

SUAVE PROSPECT - Nick Zito trained (Strike the Gold, Go for Gin) colt is a game, consistent sort. Lost two close ones to Thunder Gulch in Florida before beating that one in the Blue Grass while finishing second. Julie Krone is going to win a Derby someday, but a non-classic pedigree and three very tough races suggest we´ve seen his best. Wait´ll next year Julie.

TE JANO RUN - A true closer, he was a game third in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile last year. He wintered in New Orleans but suffered a lung infection that caused him to skip the Louisiana Derby. Closed well in Serena´s Beam but hung in the Blue Grass due to the slow pace and traffic problems. Jockey Bailey is an ace though trainer is untested in the big ones. Pedigree is not fashionable but certainly suggests the distance will not be a problem. If they go fast early, he´ll be passing them in the lane.

DAZZLING FALLS - Obscurely bred Nebraskan parlayed the Remington and Arkansas Derbies into a ticket to Louisville. Have to respect the wins, but cannot imagine this horse looking down the Churchill Downs stretch with anything but a gasp.

SKI CAPTAIN - Will parachute into Louisville from Tokyo (with two hundred of his closest human friends) three days before the race. What! First Hollywood, then Pebble Beach, now Godzilla in Kentucky. Word is that Judge Ito has tipped this horse to the O.J. jury. This horse is bred as well as any in the race, being a son of Storm Bird and a half brother to Ski Paradise. Japanese racing is serious stuff (our old pal Sunday Silence is off to a blazing start at stud there) but relative form is hard to gauge. Cap has won three of his four starts and is said to be the goods. We know Yutaka Take can ride and with a fellow Japanese Hideyuki Mori training, riding instructions will be clearly understood. The only English they need to know is "Riders up." Stranger things have happened (see Canonero II, 1971).

THUNDER GULCH - Yet another D. Wayne trainee, runs as a separate betting interest since he has different ownership. Sent to Florida as a second stringer, he promptly won the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, before a dull fourth in the Blue Grass. Gets Gary Stevens for the first time and has to be a contender. His enigmatic sire (Gulch) was sixth in the Derby, third in the Belmont, and subsequently won the Breeders´ Cup Sprint. If you believe in the old handicapping adage, "throw out the last one," he´s your horse.

WILD SYN - Very very tough to figure. Showed early promise with convincing maiden win in Florida. Got knocked around in the Hutcheson, then destroyed an allowance field before an unimpressive third in the Holy Bull. Then in what was supposed to be a match race between Suave Prospect and Thunder Gulch with Tejano Run in pursuit, Wild Syn calmly led the field from gate to wire in dawdling early fractions followed by a strong finishing kick. Forget leading this Derby field in slow fractions, but what we don´t know (and can´t find out) is whether he can lay off of that early speed. Randy Romero has endured twenty four surgical procedures during his riding career. He´s been to the mountain top (rode Personal Ensign during a career without a loss) and to the valley (rode the wonderful filly Go for Wand during her fatal accident in the Breeders´ Cup). Forget Bill Clinton; if he wins this one, Randy Romero will be the comeback kid.

CITADEED - The other English invader. The trainer is staying at Newmarket for the Two Thousand Guineas after making it clear that the Derby is the owner´s idea not his. This is probably a pretty good reason to skip. Although we´ll never forget Leroy Jolley saying, after the Wood, that he was sending Genuine Risk to the Oaks not the Derby. The owners overruled him, we went to Rumbo (second) in our first letter, and the filly got the roses!

KNOCKADOON and IN CHARACTER - We put these two together since they ran fourth and second respectively in the Louisiana Derby which turned out not to be a very formful race. The former was a distant second to Talkin´ Man in the Wood, the latter up the track in the Santa Anita Derby. Both are likely field horses.

JUMRON - English bred found himself in the Great Northwest. Son of champion English sprinter Sharpo, we are reliably told his dam side possesses stamina. He was moving fastest of all in The Santa Anita Derby at the end, but was whipped enough to scramble the animal rights activists. Connections are without classic experience.

LAKE GEORGE - A horse that may develop into a good one but seems a bit unseasoned for this effort. Probably in the betting field.

PYRAMID PEAK, JAMBALAYA JAZZ - A coupled entry. Pyramid probably peaked when he won Flamingo where he finished like Long John Silver. Jazz was one of our early whisper horses, but we´ve made more excuses for him that D. Wayne has for Timber Country. Nice pedigree, good connections, but he don´t run fast.

MECKE - Thought this guy would run a big one in the Beam off his late move in the Florida Derby, but he´s the classic example of the chart term "passed tiring horses." He´ll pass tiring horses in the Derby but not enough of them.

OUR PICK

So there they are, the class of ´95, and we´ve got to pick a winner. We opened with a quote from Shakespeare´s King Richard III; we will now borrow from that Scottish play, Macbeth: BANQUO: If you can look into the seeds of time And say which grain will grow and which will not, Speak then to me, who neither beg nor fear Your favors nor your hate. WITCH #1: Lesser than Macbeth (Timber Country), and greater. WITCH #2: Not so happy, yet much happier. WITCH #3: Thou (Cox´s Ridge) shalt get kings though thou be none. THE FAMILY

It has certainly been Cox´s Ridge´s destiny, though uncrowned, to beget kings and queens. A solid racehorse, (as Banquo was a person) he deserves the highest accolade a stallion can receive: he´s outsired himself. We are going to back a son of his (again) in this year´s Derby. It was eleven years ago that we picked Vanlandingham, a son of the rising young sire at Claiborne Farm. Vanlandingham was seriously injured in the race but returned the following year to be named champion older horse. Life´s Magic, another offspring, was named three year old champion filly and later champion older mare. Cardmania, the tough gelding, won the Breeders´ Cup Sprint. Sultry Song and DeRoche are other significant stakes winners. The Turn-to line, of which he is a product, has produced Derby. winners Proud Clarion, Riva Ridge, Sunny´s Halo, and Sunday Silence. This is the line of Roberto and Mill Reef.

Our selection´s dam is the Danzig mare Nimble Feet, which we hope she has passed on to negotiate the traffic. She is a full sister to graded stakes horses Contredance and Old

Alliance, as well as a half sister to the good stakes horse Skimble (by Lyphard). A younger brother, Forrest Gazelle, broke the track record for six furlongs at Hollywood Park a couple of weeks back. Their dam is the Cyane mare Nimble Folly. This is an old Christiana Stables family: a stable that brought as Go for Wand, Linkage, etc.

THE CONNECTIONS

The owner is the Saudi Prince Khalid Abdullah´s Juddmonte Farm. Juddmonte has won the English Derby, French Derby, and Arc de Triomphe. Surprisingly they have had fourteen Breeders´ Cup entries without a win. This is their first Kentucky Derby.

The pick was a monster overlay in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile at 16-1. We thought we were home when Timber Country ran him down in the final strides. It was an impressive effort, shipping from England, running on dirt for the first time. Should he turn the tables in the Derby, he would fulfill the prophecy: lesser than Timber Country, and greater.

He was under wraps all winter in England so we´ve had to rely on our highly confidential sources for progress reports. His one and only Derby prep race was a third in the Feilden Stakes at a mile and an eighth at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago. Note that this was on the grass and he conceded his rivals eight pounds. The winner is now third choice for the English Derby. This race had immense conditioning value as the last 300 yards at Newmarket runs uphill.

Trainer Henry Cecil (pronounced sessul) has won the English (original) Derby three times. Spring in Louisville holds little appeal to him unless he can beat the Americans at their own game. You can bet, if he´s coming, he thinks he has a shot.

It is said that America and England are two countries separated by a common language; it might also be said separated by a common sport: horse racing. All significant racing there is on winding grass courses with up and downhill grades. Pace tends to be slower early with strong finishes while here the emphasis is more on early speed. It is a rare horse, trainer, or jockey that succeeds in both places.

Is this an Arazi repeat? After all he was stunning in the Juvenile only to tire badly in the Derby after a big middle move. Remember that Arazi had surgery after the Breeders´ Cup and the late, great Francois Boutin faced a difficult task of maintaining soundness while generating fitness. Also, in retrospect, Arazi, brilliant as he was, was best on grass and at a mile, not so with our selection.

Henry may look like a Vanity Fair caricature but we think he will give them the Dickens in Kentucky. The great Pat Eddery has been in the irons for all the starts so far, but Hank is wisely switching riders for this most American of contests. The crafty cajun, Eddie Delahoussaye (Gato de Sol, picked here at 21-1 in ´82 and Sunny´s Halo in ´83) gets the call and shoots for this third Derby win.

RACE

We expect a stalking style for our run. Serena´s Song, Talkin´ Man, Afternoon Deelites, and Wild Syn will all be forwardly placed. We expect our guy to be in a bunch, just off the speed; that will include Thunder Gulch and Suave Prospect. Tejano Run and Timber Country will be a bit farther back We expect Talkin´ Man and Afternoon Deelites to go after the filly about the three eighths pole and as they duel, watch for the flash of pink and green as the Juddmonte silks explode to the fore. We´ll open up daylight out of the turn and withstand the late charge of Timber Country and Tejano Run. It´s ELTISH!

THE BET:

Of course we´ll bet ELTISH to win:, we expect about 10 - 1 or more TALKIN´ MAN has to go in the exacta:, we´ll round out the exacta box with the longshot entry of PYRAMID PEAK and JAMBALAYA JAZZ (one of these days he´s going to run a big one!).