Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 1996 - 17th Edition

HOIST THE FLAG had just electrified a crowd of almost 50,000 at Aqueduct in the Bay Shore Stakes when Jean Cruguet made the comment quoted on the front page. The previous year´s two year old champion had just coasted to an easy victory just four fifths of a second off the world record for seven furlongs. He embodied the Olympic qualities of a champion: speed, stamina, and soundness. Nothing stood between him and the Triple Crown, it seemed. But in his next start, the colt suffered a career ending leg injury. Only a medical miracle saved him for stud duty; the champion did not disappoint. On the Lifetime Broodmare Sire Production Index, he ranks eighth -- alltime-- in front of names like BUCKPASSER, GRAUSTARK, SECRETARIAT, and ROUND TABLE. We pass this vignette on as just another example of every racehorse being one bad step from disability; as Shakespeare put it in Henry IV: "uneasy lies the head that wears the crown."

As we gathered our thoughts for our first Derby letter at this time in 1980, two of the previous three Derbies had been won by favorites (SEATTLE SLEW `77 and SPECTACULAR BID `79). The `78 was won by AFFIRMED, a narrow second choice to ALYDAR. Upon ruling out that `80 favorite (PLUGGED NICKLE), a tradition began which continues to this day: beat the chalk. Little did we suspect at the time that in each of the succeeding sixteen Derbies the favorite would lose! Regression to the mean where are you? This is like rolling sixteen passes at a craps table.

There are a lot of reasons why this has happened. We´ll offer one: the bettors make the wrong horse the favorite most of the time. This is because the day of the widely read, expert race writers has passed. Nowadays the favorite is made not by hardened professionals, but by a public with an inchoate knowledge of the sport. That public reaches its choice through panels of "experts" in USA Today and the like, who handicap one race a year.

So come they assembled again to anoint this year´s victim, UNBRIDLED´S SONG. Before we bury Caesar, we´d like to praise him. UNBRIDLED´S SONG is a colt blessed with uncommon talent. And we have a definite soft spot for the issue of the 1990 Derby winner, UNBRIDLED (selected here at 10-1). The sire had a one run style that worked when it most counted (Derby and Breeders´ Cup). But on occasion that style left his backers bemused when not enough speed developed in front of him, or a clear path failed to unfold.

Son `SONG is another story. Much speedier that UNBRIDLED, he likes it close to the front and teaching him to relax has been a challenge for his connections. His talent will go wasted if it is compromised by a case of Derby jitters brought on by the hubbub on Saturday. His win in the Florida Derby was convincing and professional. His Wood Memorial score was against a lesser bunch. After opening what appeared to be an unreachable gap, his final margin of victory was a little over a length. UNBRIDLED´S SONG bulls say he loafed after opening up the big lead and lost interest. The bears (are there any?) would say he appeared to labor in deep stretch. An additional 220 yards await in Louisville.

Certainly among the community of once a year racing experts lies a view that "he don´t get beat unless he falls down." Maybe so. We are certain of this: his probable even money (or worse) odds hold no appeal for the constituency of this advisory. And remember he is fighting a quadruple Derby hex: no favorite has won since `79, no Wood Memorial winner has won since `81 (PLEASANT COLONY), no winner of the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (2 year olds) has ever won, and jockey Mike Smith, in spite of his record of accomplishment, is 0 for 6 in the Kentucky Derby.

A foot disorder has had the colt trying more shoes than Imelda Marcos this past week. He also has drawn the outside post (20). Most puzzling to us has been the trainer´s decision to drill a half mile in 46 seconds yesterday. This is the kind of work designed to sharpen a horse, to put more speed into him. Does this make sense for a horse already on edge? Are they going to spring him to the lead like they did in the Champagne? He opened up six lengths there before tiring. Derby fever produces irrational behavior. To borrow a phrase from a generation younger, the colt´s connections have wigged out!

In case you felt for the hard luck Jean Cruguet, he ended up on an 18-1 shot, BOLD REASON, in the `71 Derby and finished third to CANONERO II. Six years later he partnered a colt named SEATTLE SLEW through a Triple Crown sweep and an undefeated three year old season. At age fifty-seven, he has yet to hang up his tack.

A Profile of the Race

Handicappers group running styles into three broad categories: speed, stalker, and closer. In its simplest form a speed horse wants to go to the lead or contest it from the start. A stalker likes to lay off the speed but not too far. A closer is in the bottom tier early on and hopes to win with a late run. In the sixteen Derbies covered by this letter, speed horses have won the race three times (SPEND A BUCK `85, WINNING COLORS `88, and GO FOR GIN `94); stalkers have won it five times (GENUINE RISK `80, SUNNY´S HALO `83, SWALE `84, SUNDAY SILENCE´89, and THUNDER GULCH `95); while closers have won it eight times (PLEASANT COLONY `81, GATO DEL SOL `82, FERDINAND `86, ALYSHEBA `87, UNBRIDLED `90, STRIKE THE GOLD `91, LIL E. TEE `92, SEA HERO `93). The apparent bias toward closers is a little misleading, we think (although we do favor closers). Our view is that the majority of Derby starters could not get a mile and a quarter if the starting gate were on Pike´s Peak. So every year we have folks seeking their moment of Warholesque notice, and entering horses that show early, then gasp at the sight of the Churchill Downs finishing lane.

We make this tedious digression because this year´s field almost guarantees that the winner will be a closer, or a stalker that can sit, sit more, then strike. For speed to win, it must go unchallenged for at least half of the race. This was the case in `85, , `88, and `94 when Cordero, Stephens, and McCarron respectively put the field to sleep stealing easy leads. There is an abundance of speed and stalkers whose riders could turn impatient and go to the fore. But the classic distance makes the lead a fickle mistress. The rider that submits to the siren song too early is doomed.. With that in mind, let´s take a look at the field.

The Speed

The two horses most likely to go to the front are HONOUR AND GLORY and MATTY G. Both horses possess quality speed, but if either ends the afternoon with a blanket of roses on his withers, you will have read our last missive. The former is from the Lucas string and seems to be in here to provide an honest pace for the other fifteen horses he entered. The latter is trained by Ron McAnally who, after frustrating efforts to control the colt´s speed, has announced he will no longer try. Ron and D. Wayne will give the same instructions to their riders: "Send him!"

The Stalkers

We´ll take them alphabetically. BUILT FOR PLEASURE shocked the field at 100-1 in the Fountain of Youth, but has disappointed since in the Florida Derby and the Flamingo. A wager here will be bilked for pleasure. We thought CAVONNIER was overraced going into the Santa Anita Derby, which the touch Cal bred gelding promptly won. His apparently modest pedigree hides some interesting stamina influences in His Majesty (grandsire) and Belmont winner Caveat (maternal grandsire). He thrives on action and should have a big say in the outcome. CITY BY NIGHT was the upset winner in the Lexington; he should finish by night. DILIGENCE is lightly raced, but showed promise in Florida before bombing in the Blue Grass. Unfortunately he is owned by George Steinbrenner: he could be fired before the race. LOUIS QUATORZE shares the connections (owner, trainer, and jockey) of `91 winner STRIKE THE GOLD. Always runs a creditable race (fourth in Florida Derby, second in the Blue Grass). In neither of those mile and one eighth efforts did he look like he wanted to go a step farther. PRINCE OF THIEVES (a three quarter brother to last year´s favorite TIMBER COUNTRY) is part of the Lukas division and has a penchant for getting himself in trouble. Had a bad trip in the Santa Anita Derby and should have won the Lexington. No word as to whether he was named for his trainer. (Just kidding, D. Wayne.) He´ll be coupled in the betting with HONOUR AND GLORY since they have common ownership (also same as last year´s victor, THUNDER GULCH). SEMORAN won the Remington Derby and was a distant sixth in the Blue Grass where he semi-ran; he doesn´t belong here. SKIP AWAY is a now horse. Ran a solid third in the Florida Derby in second start after a long vacation. Used that tightener to destroy the field in the Blue Grass. From the solid Damascus sireline which can´t seem to win a Derby, his stamina is a question; his speed is not. VICTORY SPEECH is another member of the D. Wayne cavalry. This son of DEPUTY MINISTER hung very tough with UNBRIDLED´S SONG in the Fountain of Youth before running poorly in the Jim Beam. Least regarded of the Lukas team, but may surprise. Last of the stalkers is ZARB´S MAGIC, a humble Louisiana bred which turned the tables on GRINDSTONE in the Arkansas Derby after finishing second to that one in the Louisiana Derby. His sire (ZARBYEV) is a son of the impeccable NURYEV. His dam is by RUN THE GAUNTLET, a sire of marathoners. A very interesting proposition.

The Closers

ALYROB was flying at the end of the Santa Anita Derby. Unfortunately he plowed into half of the field. Finished second, but was placed last. His sire ALYSHEBA had a similar performance before winning the Derby in `87. Low earner in the field can´t be overlooked. BLOW OUT ran the undefeated IDE (out with an injury) to the wire in the Rebel. Was making a spirited bid in the Arkansas Derby before losing all chance when carried ten wide on the turn. Hard to figure. CORKER is a half brother to `94 second place finisher, STRODE´S CREEK. Was making up good ground in the Santa Anita Derby before being carried wide. Have to respect the Bald Eagle, Charlie Whittingham, but the colt seems a bit inexperienced. One thing for sure, he´ll be closer at the end than he will be in the middle of the race. EDITOR´S NOTE is the D. Wayne bridesmaid: always closing, always tough, never wins. This race sets up great for him. He´ll be coupled with GRINDSTONE, a son of UNBRIDLED whose running style is a mirror image of pop. A lot of horses will be coming back to this pair in the stretch. IN CONTENTION finished gamely to a second place finish in the Wood in this first shot at the big time. A son of DEVIL´S BAG out of a SECRETARIAT mare should be right at home at the distance. HALO SUNSHINE was in a blind switch in the Arkansas Derby, and did well to finish third. Pedigree says yes, but he´s not won in the big leagues. So there is your full field of twenty. Read on to see how we think it will unfold.

Our Pick

With the death of HIS MAJESTY early this year, thoroughbred breeding lost the last meaningful son of RIBOT at the stud. HIS MAJESTY, full brother to the great GRAUSTARK sired Kentucky Derby winner PLEASANT COLONY, and was grandsire of Kentucky Derby winner GO FOR GIN and English Derby winner, ST. JOVITE. He was also maternal grandsire of Preakness and Belmont winner, RISEN STAR (of considerably less importance, he was the sire of a 1996 foal at Innisfree Farm, a filly). Among his less heralded get was a foal of 1975 named BATONNIER. Your editor successfully backed him in the 1978 Le Compte at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans (our affection for HIS MAJESTY goes back a ways) and disconsolately destroyed win tickets on him as he ran third to ESOPS FOIBLES in the 1978 Louisiana Derby. After retirement BATONNIER went to stud in California where he has done a workmanlike job. We always have an eye out for the BATONNIERS in those Cal-bred maiden races at Del Mar in August. We must admit that the athletic gelding spied in the paddock last summer seemed an unlikely candidate for our selection for the first Saturday in May. But after an excruciating process of elimination, he´s our pick. We knew he was game, we knew he was durable. What we saw in the Santa Anita Derby offered a new dimension. Hopelessly trapped behind horses entering the far turn, Chris McCarron sat chilly waiting patiently for an opening. Announcer Trevor Denman exclaimed the horse was, "crying out for room!" When the hole opened, McCarron must have felt like an astronaut, as he was thrust to the lead. This is the kind to acceleration that SUNDAY SILENCE showed in the same race in 1989 before upsetting another "unbeatable" horse from the East, EASY GOER.

A final word on pedigree. Our pick´s damside speaks to stamina as well. DIREWARNING, his dam, is by CAVEAT, winner of the `83 Belmont. He is in turn by CANNONADE, 1974 Derby champ. Interestingly CANNONADE´S dam, QUEEN SUCREE, was by none other than RIBOT. This is what equine geneticists refer to as a 3x4 inbreeding or cross. It may not work with humans in the Ozarks, but having a Grandpa RIBOT on both sides of the family tree at Churchill Downs is a plus.

The Jockey

This will be Chris McCarron´s fourteenth Kentucky Derby. He´s won it twice. From the front with GO FOR GIN `94, from the back with ALYSHEBA `87. This time he´ll win it from the middle; he won´t be impatient. Nobody does it better.

The Trainer

Bob Baffert is an ex quarter horse jockey and trainer making his maiden voyage to the Derby. He does have Breeders´ Cup experience. In 1992 we were watching Breeders´ Cup prospects getting their final works early in the a.m. at Gulfstream. Baffert was prepping THIRTY SLEWS for the Breeders´ Cup Sprint. The horse worked a slow half in 52 seconds to the apparent displeasure of Baffert. When the rider returned, the trainer (for maximum effect before the press and other horsemen) said, "I told you to work him fast!" The rider replied "Worked him as fast as I could, Boss." All gathered dutifully noted the event. The horse then went out a couple days later and won the sprint at 15-1. Beware Baffert.

The Race

HONOUR AND GLORY and MATTY G. will go to the front with UNBRIDLED´S SONG, SKIP AWAY, and ZARB´S MAGIC closely bunched in the next flight. Our pick will be just behind these between PRINCE OF THIEVES and VICTORY SPEECH. At the 7/16 pole UNBRIDLED´S SONG and SKIP AWAY pull away racing as a team. We are moving into third as the other stalkers begin to tire. ALYROB and EDITOR´S NOTE gain ground moving into the turn. SKIP AWAY gets the best of UNBRIDLED´S SONG at the 1/4 pole. At the 1/8 pole we seize the lead but ALYROB and EDITOR´S NOTE are flying on the outside. Down the stretch they come. At the wire it´s CAVONNIER! ALYROB (second) SKIP AWAY (third) EDITOR´S NOTE (fourth)

The Bet

In the spirit of confession (now euphemistically called reconciliation) we did vacillate among our choice, ALYROB and SKIP AWAY for weeks. SKIP AWAY would have been a great story line (husband-wife team, old time New York racetrackers; husband was linebacker at Syracuse when Jim Brown was a running back). Or ALYROB. Another family deal. Trainer is father-in-law of jockey (Corey Nakatani). Daughter is assistant trainer. In the end, we concluded that CAVONNIER may be one of those wonderfully unique geldings that grace the scene now and again. A KELSO?, A FOREGO?, A JOHN HENRY?, A BEST PAL? They appear like comets in our midst. How sad that most of the betting/sporting public is transfixed with slot machines and whining $5 million a year point guards and outfielders. We don´t want to put the hat on CAVONNIER but we sense greatness. Bet him to win and box and exacta with ALYROB. If you are into trifectas, put SKIP AWAY with him.

P.S. Another note on HOIST THE FLAG. He was by a horse called TOM ROLFE, a son of RIBOT.