"Like as the waves make toward the pebbled shore, So do our minutes hasten to their end."
-From the Sonnets, William Shakespeare
The Roman poet, Ovid, reduced it to a two word phrase: tempus fugit. No matter what your touchstone: a war remembrance, a birth, a death, or a memorable Kentucky Derby (is there any other kind?), time does fly. Could a generation have passed since our spirits took flight with that commanding dark bay with the odd name of Seattle Slew? Twenty years? 1977? Can it really be? It not only can be, it is. Yes, tempus does fugit.
Seattle Slew had just completed an undefeated two year old championship season and a folksy, former southern governor was taking the presidential oath of office. Jimmy Carter´s campaign pledge was "I´ll never lie to you,"´ for all we know, he may not have. If he didn´t, he left a valued bequest from a presidency widely regarded as failed. There are worse things to call a president than an honest failure; several come to mind for the present incumbent.
Twenty years since the deaths of Elvis, Groucho, and Der Bingle? Yup. Two decades since Rocky won an Oscar, since Reggie Jackson homered on three consecutive first offerings from three different Dodger pitchers to become Mr. October? You can look it up. Ovid and Will were right; so does time fly; so do the minutes hasten.
He really was another Secretariat, that Seattle Slew. He parlayed his two year old success into a waltz through the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont becoming the only undefeated winner of the Triple Crown. Detractors of his French born, quotidian jockey said that if Jean Cruguet couldn´t get him beat, the colt must be invincible. His colorful trainer, ex- steeplechase jockey Billy Turner, was rumored t6 be only occasionally sober during Seattle Slew´s campaign. And the owners? They eventually replaced trainer and jockey and ended up suing one another. The horse overcame; he belongs to the ages.
Seattle Slew was a bargain yearling, hammered down for $17,500 at the 1975 sales. By the speedy Bold Reasoning and out of the Poker mare, My Charmer, he was so awkward early that his nickname was Baby Huey. That is until his first serious work drew up the curtain on his extraordinary talent.
In seventeen lifetime starts, he won fourteen times and was second twice. His only embarrassment came when his owners, unimpressed with the toll of a Triple Crown campaign, kept him in training and shipped him west to contest the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood park. Sixty eight thousand were on hand to watch the champion finish s dull fourth to J.O. Tobin and Bill Shoemaker. Belatedly his connections concluded that, maybe, the horse needed a break.
We view Slew´s penultimate start, the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, as his most enduring memory., Remember this was in the days before the Breeders´ Cup, and the Jockey Club at a mile and a half was the marquee event of the fall season. It would match a pair of Triple Crown winners as Affirmed, winner of the 1978 classics, was entered, The great European stayer, Exceller, was also there. Slew´s critics doubted his talents at the distance, notwithstanding his Belmont win. That win, like most they said, was against questionable talent. Affirmed had ground the great Alydar into a narrow defeat in his Belmont, a virtual match race of future Hall of Famers, Exceller, a son of the legendary Vaguely Noble, had bested Europe´s finest on grass and proven his versatility on the dirt in California. The handicappers liked Affirmed; the pedigree students liked Exceller; the fans liked Seattle Slew.
Slew went straight to the lead with Angel Cordero aboard, while Exceller trailed the field some twenty lengths back. Affirmed and Steve Cauthen pressed Slew from the get go, producing a 3/4 mile fraction in a winged 1:09 2/5. Heading for home, Slew had bested Affirmed but Exceller was uncorking a powerful move from the rear. Just past the eighth pole, a weary Slew was passed by the onrushing Exceller who opened up a length on him. Exceller´s rider, Bill Shoemaker, later remarked that at that point he thought the race was over; it wasn´t. Without an urge from Cordero´s whip, Slew fought back completely on his own and missed by a nose catching the great finisher, Exceller, at the wire. We´ll never forget it.
The horse sparkled in the breeding shed as he had on the track. From 661 named foals, he has produced 314 winners and 78 stakes winners. Sire of sires? No fewer than 99 of his sons are currently active at stud. Broodmare sire? His 183 producing daughters have thrown 286 winners and 43 stakes winners. Includes in that band is Solar Slew, dam of a horse named Cigar. Kentucky Derbies? His brilliant son, Swale scored in the 1984 edition and looked like the second coming before his unexplained death days after winning the Belmont. Slew should have sired two Derby winners: A.P. Indy looked the goods in 1992 before coming up with a sore foot on the eve of the race. That one went on to win the Belmont and Breeders´ Cup Classic and is a most promising first crop sire. A spry 23, Seattle Slew grows old with grace.
Why is it that with all the advances in veterinary medicine and nutrition, our horses today run no faster and usually have shorter careers than in generations past? We think the answer lies in the commercial breeding market where the buyers want the sleekest, most precocious genetic models which typically are not known for soundness. The most patronized stallions flash brilliance at two and early at three, if they last that long. Stamina and soundness are afterthoughts.
Our thoughts turned to soundness a few weeks back while doing our due diligence for this letter watching the Jim Beam Stakes, a major prep for the Kentucky Derby. We had sweetened the appeal o f this contest with a win bet on a horse called Inexcessivelygood and an exacta box with that horse and Concerto. Well into the stretch drive, it was a two horse race with Concerto a head in front. The exacta was in the bag and our win bet still had a shot. Suddenly Inexcessivelygood collapsed, a victim of a shattered ankle, and jockey Chris McCarron was slammed to the ground. It was a sickening sight, remindful of Go For Wand´s tragic end in the 1990 Breeders´ Cup Distaff. The colt was under the capable care of Bob Baffert, trainer of Cavonnier, our second by a nostril pick in last year´s Derby. Treatment and preparation were not an issue; Inexcessivelygood was at the top of his game for the Jim Beam.
Horses are Darwinian victims. Their remaining genus, Equus, has seen its species dwindle to zebras, donkeys, and equus caballus (horse to us). Today the genetic development of the horse is almost totally under the direction of homo sapiens. That direction is often less than sapient.
When tragedy strikes at the track, invariably the morality of horse racing is questioned. On one fringe are those who take biblical license, from the account of creation in Genesis, to exercise dominion over the entire animal kingdom. On the other fringe are the tree huggers, ready to grant constitutional protection to armadillos. Our view is that animals do not have rights but humans do have responsibilities towards them, especially when the humans impose domestication. Most racehorses lead far better lives than they would elsewhere. Life in the wild is not idyllic; horses there die as prey or from starvation, not old age.
Nonetheless racing does not help itself by a lax medication policy with uneven enforcement and penalties wanting in severity. This raises distrust and confusion in the minds of racing´s fans, while the sport´s bureaucracy operates with the collective I.Q. of Watership Down. Unless our game adopts more humane practices, including alteration of claiming race rules that currently result in dumping of accidents waiting to happen, the sport has no more of a future than goat roping. With change comes hope; after all, martinis and cigars have made a comeback (we never thought they went out of favor), why not horse racing? No more polemics, onto THE RACE.
This year´s renewal goes probably eight deep with bettable horses and two very deserving co-favorites. All of the placed horses in the Santa Anita and Arkansas Derbies, Blue Grass, and Wood Memorial preps can be advocated with some justification. This looks like a pretty decent crop with a great deal of balance. The winners of the aforementioned races present an evenly matched final four unlike we´ve ever seen. From the west comes Santa Anita Derby winner, Free House; from the East comes Florida Derby and Wood Memorial winner, Captain Bodgit; from the Midwest comes Blue Grass winner, Pulpit; and from the South comes Crypto Star, winner of the third world Derbies in Louisiana and Arkansas.
Let´s take a closer look at the field. The number preceding the horse´s name is the number that will appear on the saddlecloth. This is the number you should call out when making your bet. Because of the two horse Zito entry, post positions will not correspond to saddlecloth numbers. The number in parentheses is the probable odds as set by track handicapper, Mike Battaglia. Actual odds will be determined by betting. Odds in excess of this morning line is termed an overlay; a lesser price is termed an underlay. The horses are listed in order of post position from the rail outward.
2. CRYPTO STAR (10-1) - A son of the good Cryptoclearance and from a daughter of Sir Ivor, this colt was a $100,000 yearling whose owners reportedly rejected a $3,000,000 offer between his Louisiana and Arkansas Derby scores. His running style and pedigree cry out for a distance as he comes from caboose like distances for his wins. Traffic could be a problem but Hall of Famer Pat Day will be doing the steering. He vacated the mount on Ordway when that colt appeared a better shot. Cryto´s trainer is a New Orleans original, ex-jockey Wayne Catalano. The trainer was a journeyman in the saddle, but was a favorite of Jack Van Berg, from whom he obviously learned a lot. The colt is following the race schedule of last year´s winner, Grindstone. There´s nothing Crypto about this Star; impossible to throw out.
3. PHANTOM ON TOUR (12-1) - Same owner and trainer as 1992 winner Lil E. Tee, he had a game second in the Arkansas Derby and deserves to be here. Sire Tour D´Or is more Tour than Or. Gets a boost by last minute addition of Jerry Bailey who replaces veteran Cajun Larry Melancon. A big effort could put him on the board, but we´ll definitely see a ghost if the Phantom gets the roses.
4. CONCERTO (8-1)- This handsome son of Chief´s Crown (beaten favorite in all three Triple Crown races) has taken the road less traveled to the Derby. Won the Jockey Club at two over the Churchill strip and headed home to Maryland. First caught our eye winning the Whirlaway at Aqueduct in a blinding snowstorm in February. His only loss in his last seven starts was a close second to the Captain in Maryland. Won the Jim Beam over the ill fated Inexcessivelygood, then used the Tesio Stakes at Laurel as a workout. Possesses tactical speed and looks like he can get the trip. Dosage freaks say Chief´s Crown did not possess mile and a quarter genes although he won the Travers and Marlboro Cup at that distance and has sired a winner of the Epsom Derby (Erhaab) at a mile and one half. Owner George Steinbrenner does not evoke sentimentality (he made illegal campaign contributions before it was cool), although trainer Tammaro and jockey Marquez are capable if unspectacular Grabowskis (for non- Saints fans, this is a term Coach Mike Ditka uses to describe players who possess lunch bucket dedication). This Concerto could be developing into a masterpiece with a stunning final movement.
5. CAPTAIN BODGIT ( 5-2) - What a story! This son of freshman sire, St. Ballado, reeled off five straight two year old wins in Maryland and Delaware. He was purchased for $500,000 (200 times the sire´s stud fee!) after a third place finish in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream this winter. The owners, a syndicate called Team Valor, are savvy players who boldly overlooked his uncertain breeding and an ugly tendon injury. St. Ballado was a decent if unspectacular racehorse but has a pedigree to die for. By Halo (sire of Derby winners Sunday Silence and Sunny´s Halo) out of Ballade, he is thus a full brother to champions Devil´s Bag and Glorious Song. The Captain´s damside pedigree is a little light, but he sports an ideal race record and seems to be peaking in a timely fashion. He certainly figures but will be overbet. His California jockey, Alex Solis, is underestimated and has a Derby win in his future. Solis has never had a better shot. Reaching for a negative, we would point out that the last horse to parlay the Wood and the Derby was Pleasant Colony in 1981. A lot of fans who never heard of Walt Whitman will be screaming "Oh Captain, My Captain!"
6. SILVER CHARM (5-1) We first spotted this guy last August at Del Mar. By the successful Buckpasser son, Silver Buck, he was acquired for $85,000 as a two year old. Trainer Baffert conditioned last year´s pick, Cavonnier; rider is Hall of Famer and two-time Derby winner (Winning Colors and Thunder Gulch), Gary Stevens. The colt has lost two out of three close tilts to Free House, but was very impressive in his narrow Santa Anita Derby second. He shared the lead with Lukas´ hot filly Sharp Cat in a blazing 1:09 three quarters, and still had enough left to take Free House to the wire. Silver Charm came back a la Seattle Slew (they have the same broodmare sire, Poker) in the final strides to just miss. May be overbet as Baffert is no longer an unknown in Louisville. Reportedly training well at Churchill, Silver possesses the tactical speed and staying power that may well get the gold.
7.CELTIC WARRIOR (50-1) - Came within ¾of a length of Concerto in that one´s Jockey Club at two. Plodder, who should get better the longer they go, did close well to be fourth in the Blue Grass. Will reverse the poetic line about the Irish: "All their wars are happy and all their songs are sad." This Celt will have a sad war on Derby Day. The only way to lengthen his odds would be if his first name was Boston.
8. PULPIT (2-1) - This son of A.P. Indy and the Mr. Prospector mare, Preach, is bred in the purple. He is the equine equivalent of Richy Rich. Owned and bred by the storied Claiborne Farm, whose only Derby winner was the above mentioned Swale, this colt was unraced at two and barged onto the scene during the Florida winter season. He won the Fountain of Youth in his third career start, then was second to Captain Bodgit in the Florida Derby in his only loss. The colt bounced back with an easy score in the Blue Grass. Trained by New Orleanian Frankie Brothers, Pulpit´s development has been time compressed which is a worry for us and the highly capable conditioner. The colt has blistered the Louisville strip in the morning, but no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby with no two year old starts. Pulpit will be partnered by the hottest young rider in the country, Louisianian Shane Sellers, who gained prominence last year aboard Skip Away. Pulpit will lay close to the pace and may well take the lead late. Will he hold off the closers? If he does, it will be bully for Pulpit.
9. HELLO (12-1) - The forgotten horse. This Irish-bred ran in Italy and England at two before jetting into Hollywood Park to grab the Generous Stakes. Trainer Ron McAnally has developed the horse with restraint with a pair of graded stakes thirds in the San Rafael and Santa Anita Derbies. In the latter, the colt made up a ton of ground to reach even terms with Free House which carried him wide on the turn. He then hung in the stretch. This colt could send a surprise greeting to his fellows.
1. JACK FLASH (30-1) - Highly touted two year old simply hasn´t demonstrated the punch to win at this level. Owner had Derby second with Summer Squall, trainer Zito has two Derby wins (Strike the Gold and Go for Gin), and New Orleans jockey Craig Perret has one (Unbridled). Good connections, bad vibrations. Coupled with Shammy Davis.
1A. SHAMMY DAVIS (30-1) - Also trained by Nick Zito (he is acquiring a touch of Lukasitis), this horse would belongs somewhere else, maybe Vegas. Possibly a rendition of Candyman would earn him a peppermint schtick, but no roses.
10. DEEDS NOT WORDS (50-1) - D. Wayne could not stand being left out. This colt has not won since breaking his maiden at Del Mar in his first start last August (yes, we had him). He overtook Silver Charm in an impressive career bow. Both we and D. Wayne expected big things; we´ve both been disappointed.. Owner had Thunder Gulch and having Nakatani up helps. With D. Wayne on hand, we´ll have plenty of words, but we doubt he´ll do the deed. Look elsewhere.
11. CRIMSON CLASSIC (50-1) - Used the inaugural Lone Star Derby as his final prep in which he did the Texas Two Step. He took two steps out of the gate and then unseated his rider. He is definitely in a classic, but his backers are destined to see red. We make him 2-5 to bring up the rear.
12. FREE HOUSE (8-1) - His sire, Smokester, has an obscure pedigree to match his undistinguished race record. The combined lifetime winnings of both parents of Free House is about that of a winner on Jeopardy. But from only nine named foals in his first crop, Smokester has produced two stakes winners from equally improbable mares. Go figure. AII this awkward gray does is win, sometimes taking the path of a paper dragon in a Chinese New Year Parade. Connections are the same as Mane Minister ( the only horse to finish third in all three Triple Crown races) and the good grass horse Bien Bien. Trainer Paco Gonzalez is solid as is first time Derby rider, David Flores. Pedigree freaks ,like your editor, will overlook him. An obvious talent, this colt can sometimes be distracted from the business at hand which is not a desirable trait for this race. You´ll get a generous price if you like complimentary accommodation..
OUR PICK- In analyzing a subject as recondite as the Kentucky Derby, one can include limitless factors, but for every student, the one constant is pace. Pace makes the race goes the adage; pace rules. The wise handicapper is always on the prowl for lone speed. That is a situation where there is only one likely pacesetter. A horse allowed to make the lead on his or her terms can often defeat its betters to the benefit of its bettors. One of the ironies of the sport is that a horse making the lead unpressed can actually expend less energy at a faster pace than it might when it goes slower with another horse at its flank. The anxiety created by a competitor drains energy from the leader.
Some have expressed a fear that this race might be paceless, leaving the closers nothing to run at.. We disagree. Pulpit, Concerto, Silver Charm, Phantom On Tour, and even Free House possess quality speed. One or more will certainly use it. Our hunch is it will be Silver Charm. We are on record here: this Derby will not be stolen, it will be a true mile and a quarter test.
This Derby has been a war of attrition. Beginning with the defection of two year old champ Boston Harbor, the contenders have fallen like autumn leaves. Lack of development sunk possibly the last best hope of the Vanderbilt Stable, Traitor and the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile runner-up, Ordway. Distance limitations undid Smoke Glacken and Frisk Me Now. Last minute training injuries scratched the stretch running Pacific Bounty and a looming choice from this corner, Ogden Mills Phipps´ Accelerator. What remains is a field of solid, seasoned colts, most of whom are plenty ready to rumble.
Our story begins uncharacteristically at the Royal Ascot Meeting of 1996, a most improbable beginning for a Kentucky Derby winner. A diminutive Irish-bred colt finishes fifth in a fifteen horse field in the Grade III Coventry Stakes for two year olds at six furlongs. He races evenly considering it´s his first start but 3/4 of a mile barely warms the little guy up. In three more starts over the summer in England, he gets two seconds and a fourth against quality horses. In October, he slips over to Italy and goes two for two at a mile. By this time, he has caught the eye of an agent searching for a U.S. racing prospect. The colt is sold privately to American interests. His California based trainer is so stunned by the colt´s size on arrival, that he wonders whether a switch has occurred.
The trainer´s feelings change when, in his first U.S. start, the colt comes from tenth to nail the field in the Grade III Generous Stakes at a mile on the grass at Hollywood on Thanksgiving weekend, after being bounced around like a billiard ball. He comes from the back again in February to win his first dirt attempt in the Santa Catalina at Santa Anita, a track notably unkind to closers. In March, he tries the serious three year olds and runs a respectable third in the San Rafael at a mile after breaking through the gate. His stablemate, Mud Route, thought to be a prime contender for the roses in May, is sidelined by injury and the little guy is promoted to first team status in the Santa Anita Derby. A good effort, not necessarily a win avers the trainer, will earn the colt a trip to Louisville. The colt´s rider makes the tough choice and abandons his call on Silver Charm for the runt.
One month before the Kentucky Derby, at a mile and one eighth, the Santa Anita Derby is an ideal final prep. D. Wayne Lukas, the recent Triple Crown impresario, has watched his army of high priced colts disintegrate; not to be left out, he decides to try his prize filly, Sharp Cat against the boys. Since finishing ninth in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (obviously burdened by your editor´s bet), she has reeled off four straight, including three Grade I stakes. Santa Anita bettors are sufficiently impressed that they install her the two to one favorite. As expected she goes straight to the top, drafted closely by Silver Charm. Free House gets the ideal trip laying behind those two. Our pick, after sitting down in the gate, is about ten lengths back going into the first turn. Sharp Cat sizzles through the first half in 45 flat, flanked by Silver Charm. Free House coasts along in third; Chris McCarron can wait no more and hurries our pick into contention. By the far turn, The front pair have buried the ¾ in 1:09 flat, Free House has moved closer, and our pick is right outside that one. We are carried wide by Free House, the filly has had enough, and Silver Charm takes the lead. Midway through the stretch Free House passes Silver Charm and our pick, after an awkward lead change, is struggling in third. Silver Charm will come back to be second by a nose to Free House.
Our pick is a respectable two lengths back in third, and is quickly forgotten, as attention is focused on the first two. But remember that huge middle move from the ¾ to ¼ poles, remember that Santa Anita is poison to closers, and remember the trainer´s words: he doesn´t have to win, just run good. Our pick ran good. The prize is not in Arcadia, the prize is in Louisville.
Let us also call to your kind attention the 1986 Santa Anita Derby: a confirmed closer was a well beaten third, also unable to make up any ground in the stretch. He was also a selection here: he was called Ferdinand.
Very importantly, our pick has taken to the Churchill surface and, well, worked spectacularly. The best is yet to come, his big race awaits the first Saturday in May. All you, dear reader, have to remember is this: present yourself at the "Large Transactions Only" window at your local pari-mutuel establishment, remove your wad, and greet your clerk with a polite HELLO!
PEDIGREE- Hello is sired by Mr. Prospector´s son, Lycius. Although he never won over more than seven furlongs, he was a solid miler. The colt is the first foal of his dam, Itquan, a daughter of the pre-eminent European sire, Saddler´s Wells. Our European pedigree maven says that Saddler´s Wells get need a mile and a half to be their best. Not surprisingly one of Itquan´s wins came at a mile and ¾. Plenty of staying blood here. It is a truism that horses with grass ability like a route of ground; Hello has three wins on the greensward. He´ll get the trip; we hope he gets it punctually.
When, you may wonder, was the last time a foreign-bred horse won this most American of contests. Some may guess Canonero II in 1971 Wrong, he was Puerto Rican raised but Kentucky-bred. The answer is Canadian-bred Sunny´s Halo in 1983. Do, you may ask, little horses win this race? Well, yes, Northern Dancer in 1964 for one. He was so small that he was not sold as a yearling. He was also foreign bred (Canada). He is also the great grandsire of Hello on both sides of his family, or in pedigree-speak, inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer.
TRA1NER- In spite of all his success, Ron McAnally has never won a Derby. One of racing´s true gentlemen, the product of a Kentucky orphanage carried our colors with the hard luck Valiant Nature, a victim of a mugging in the 1994 edition. He´s trained some great ones, not the least of which, JohnHenry. He doesn´t come home for the juleps; he´s here to smell the roses. Somewhere there´s a Derby with his name on it. Let´s hope it says 1997.
JOCKEY- We run out of superlatives to describe Chris McCarron. He has two Derby trophies from Alysheba (we were second with Bet Twice) and Go for Gin. If last year´s race had been 1.24999 miles, he would have had a third and we would have had champagne. His decision to forego the mount on Silver Charm in favor of Hello gave us hope.
Then, not two weeks after his bone jarring spill at Turfway, he found himself curled up on the ground at Santa Anita ducking another cavalry charge. It hurts to fall off of any horse; racing spills joust with mortality. McCarron was resolved to recover in time for the Derby. But Tuesday brought the devastating news: the therapy McCarron had been receiving following his most recent accident had fallen short. Lack of mobility in his right arm forced him to resign his mount on Hello. Only the misfortune of Accelerator made the estimable talents of Mike Smith available at this late date.
Mike is no stranger to this corner. He rode our star crossed pick, Devil His Due in ´92. He has followed that disappointment with losing mounts on Prairie Bayou, Holy Bull, Talkin Man, and Unbridled Song. All except the Devil were short priced chances that could have brought him his first Derby win. He deserves one. Smith sits at the top of his profession still shy of his thirtieth birthday. There may be a touch of Kismet in Accelerator and McCarron´s misfortune. As grandmothers are fond of saying: "every time one door closes, another opens." Come into the parlor, Michael!
THE BET- Probably the best bet is a Captain Bodgit-Silver Charm exacta box. But we´re looking for the long ball, right? Hello will probably be the seventh choice. This ensures double digit odds. Let´s go with a win-place straight bet. If you favor exotics, put him with Silver Charm and Captain Bodgit in exactas and trifectas.
OUR RECORD- For seventeen previous letter, our purpose has remained unchanged: to provide you with a bettable selection at a generous price. No favorites, period. We have produced four wins and seven seconds in that span.