Derby Choice Journal 1998 - 19th Edition

THE MASTER- that´s what they called the little man. In the heyday of sports sobriquets, the sports stage of the late nineteen twenties and early nineteen thirties was the domain of George Herman Ruth. Known most commonly as the Babe, he rated multiple appellations including the Sultan of Swat and the Great Bambino. In his prime, Ruth was a titan hovering over other sports giants of his age, such as Jack ( the Manassas Mauler) Dempsey and Red (the Galloping Ghost) Grange.

As the Depression Decade matured, two young Americans of Italian immigrant parentage climbed to his succession. One of them played baseball: Joseph Paul Dimaggio was dubbed Joltin´ Joe and the Yankee Clipper. In 1936, Dimaggio´s rookie year, he hit .323 with 29 home runs and 125 runs batted in for the champion New York Yankees. Over a thirteen year Hall of Fame career, Dimaggio graced the greensward of every American League ballpark with his gentlemanly skills. The other one rode horses: George Edward Arcaro, two year´s Dimaggio´s junior, began work as a jockey in 1931 and won his first Kentucky Derby aboard Lawrin in 1938. In that year Dimaggio´s Yankees swept the Chicago Cubs in the latter´s most recent World Series appearance (some things never change).

Over a thirty year riding career, Arcaro would win that race four more times on Whirlaway (1941), Hoop Jr. (1945), Citation (1948), and Hill Gail (1952). Those five wins and the two Triple Crown sweeps on Whirlaway and Citation stand as records to this day. Thus would he earn the title that defined his craft- The Master.

The growth in celebrity of Dimaggio and Arcaro emanated from Manhattan. In the days of snapped brim fedoras and big cigars, Gotham City celebrated baseball, horse racing, and boxing with a verve unique to the time. While Dimaggio stole hearts as an athletic John Travolta, the pint-sized Arcaro, known in his early years as Banana Nose, rose only through the excellence of his pursuit. The son of a Cincinnati taxi driver, Arcaro talked his way onto the track at early adolescence, and earned his rank from the lowest levels of the game. The urbane Dimaggio and the street-smart Arcaro began a sixty-year friendship stapled apparently only by a common ethnicity and a mutual respect wrought by their professional superiority.

The general sporting audience knows Dimaggio´s accomplishments better, though Arcaro is vaguely remembered as a great jockey. How great was he? In addition to the aforementioned exploits, Eddie Arcaro partnered Horses of the Year Nashua (1955), Bold Ruler (1957), Sword Dancer (1959), and the greatest of all, Kelso (1960,1961). His total win record of 4,779 was bettered only by the marathon career of Bill Shoemaker.

The Master was driven to win. Rough and tumble is a couple notches to the Emily Post side of the race riding protocol in his day. Arcaro was a frequent visitor to the stewards´ box for reprimand and periodic suspension. Called before the racing court after the 1942 Cowdin Stakes at Aqueduct for apparently riding rival rider Vince Nodarse intentionally into the rail, an angry steward asked Arcaro to explain his deviant behavior. Non- racing fans should know that the standard response of jockeys in this situation is either one of utter amazement spoken with the innocence of a choirboy, or a directing of the blame to his uncontrollable and mute mount. Arcaro´s response to the query was concise, "I was trying to kill the SOB." That pithy testimony cost him a year´s suspension from the game.

Arcaro´s tenacity from gate to wire belied his generosity off the track. He was instrumental in founding the Jockeys´ Guild and wrote a personal check for the first insurance premium (before the guild´s creation, jockeys plied their hazardous trade with the security of a nineteenth century coal miner). Down and out track denizens enjoyed credit lines that earned Arcaro more non-performing assets than the Whitewater Savings and Loan.

Arcaro rated Citation the greatest three year old he ever rode. The pair galloped through the Triple Crown of 1948. But the ride on Citation came to him only due to the tragic drowning of Albert Snider, the regular rider. Arcaro secretly shared his winnings from those races with Snider´s widow.

By any authoritative measure, the incomparable Kelso was the best Arcaro, or anyone else, ever rode. Arcaro was still Kelso´s regular partner at the time of the rider´s retirement. He could have kept the mount and reduced his riding load, but no. Arcaro opined that if he could no longer muster the daily grind, he should no longer hang around just to ride Kelso. "You have to want to win every race, not just the big ones." In 1961, he bid goodbye for good.

A personal chance encounter with the Master rates retelling. In March of 1979 your editor was on a research mission at beautiful Hialeah Park. That track was still a racing jewel at the time and the Flamingo Stakes still a major prep for the Kentucky Derby. Two year old champ Spectacular Bid was heavily favored in both that race and the forthcoming Derby. On the Friday before the big race, I was handicapping an ordinary weekday card when a beer run between heats seemed in order. I departed my seat for the down escalator only to collide with a gentleman of small stature clad in Florida formal: bottle green slacks and a richly plaided sportcoat. After exchanging apologies, I addressed the Master with a question: "How good is the Bid? " The answer was brief: "Neither that trainer (Bud Delp) or that jock (Ronnie Franklin) can get that horse beat, son." Arcaro was right; the horse breezed through the Flamingo by twelve lengths at odds of 1-20. But just three weeks earlier in the Florida Derby, the heavily backed Bid had overcome one of the worst rides ever given by a licensed jockey to win that race. Surely that race had prompted the Master´s comment.

To appreciate what happened, listen to what the Daily Racing Form chart from the Florida Derby (March 6, 1979) had to say:

"Spectacular Bid banged into the left side of the gate at the start, was allowed to settle, moved along the inside going into the first turn, was steadied and altered course over Sir Ivor Again´s heels midway the turn, accelerated quickly along the backstretch, was forced to steady again leaving the backstretch while trying to get through along the inside, was steadied again midway the turn, was eased back and to the outside, came four wide into the stretch, was hit six times with the whip right handed at the head of the stretch, bore in slightly, was hit twice left handed, and drew well clear in the final sixteenth.."

Whew! A long sentence and an even longer race. Poor Ronnie Franklin could have felt Hillary Clinton´s pain that day. Talk about a right wing conspiracy- the rider was boxed onto the rail by two Hall of Famers by the names of Velasquez and Cordero, who almost did the kid in. We can only imagine the grins on their faces as poor Franklin sought an escape route from the blind switch in which he found himself. The Florida Derby was a mile and one eighth but the Bid´s trip proved that the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and one quarter would be no problem: he had run at least that far that day.

The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were virtual walkovers and trainer Delp humbly proclaimed his horse was "the best horse to ever look through a bridle." These kinds of comments are almost always regretted and so it was with that one. Delp alleged that a mysterious prick from a safety pin sufficiently compromised his horse before the Belmont allowing Coastal, (yes we had him at a generous $4.40 to 1), to upset and ruin the triple dream. Thus ended the quest of the last two year old champion to win the Kentucky Derby.

The Master signed a warm autograph on my program and offered a friendly hand as we parted. The image of Eddie Arcaro in my mind´s eye persists: a genuinely nice man with a smile as wide as his nose was long. And Vince Nodarse, the SOB he was " trying to kill?" Before the days of stress management, Arcaro sought the other rider´s forgiveness and the two became fast golfing buddies in their dotage.

On November 14, 1997 after going head and head with liver cancer for several years, the Master´s number came down at age 81. His greatness and humanity will rightly be a permanent part of racing lore.

On this, the twenty fifth anniversary of Secretariat´s magnificent three year old season, there was a great temptation to choose his Triple Crown conquest as our story line for this year´s letter. Big Red will not be wanting for memorials from more eloquent wordsmiths than present company. We chose to feature Eddie Arcaro in hopes of widening appreciation of his accomplishment.

We have no reason to believe that Eddie Arcaro and Seamus Heaney, the Nobel Laureate poet, were ever aquainted; but Heaney´s poem, The Master, begins with a quotation that makes us wonder:

"He dwelt in himself

Like a rook in an unroofed tower."

THE FIELD- Before we tackle Kentucky Derby 124, we offer a brief epilogue of number 123. We correctly told you that the best bet on the board was an exacta box of Silver Charm with Captain Bodgit. Unfortunately, we also advised a stab on longshot, Hello. An English import of Irish pedigree, the colt possessed form on the sceptered isle that our expert English sources confided was wanting (we´ll listen next time, Lincoln and James). Yet Hello was a game little colt and we grieved when he broke down while racing last year.

This Derby holds the potential for more future sires than any since 1957 when Gallant Man, Round Table, and Bold Ruler ran two, three, four to the outsider, Iron Liege. This is as talented and deep a bunch of competitors as we´ve ever seen. The race will be a true handicapper´s test. Let´s get on with the task and examine the field.

This year´s field is comprised of fifteen three year old thoroughbreds. All are colts except Hanuman Highway, which is beyond the reach of Viagra. He is a gelding. Following the name is the horse´s post position and morning line odds. Basic Trainee and Robinwould are coupled in the mutuel field. Post positions are not program numbers. Those were not available as we went to press.

FAVORITE TRICK (7, 4/1) - Any discussion has to begin with the two year old champion and 1997 Horse of the Year. His lone defeat came in his last race, the Arkansas Derby where he just failed to last and finished a close third in only his second three year old start. His sire, Phone Trick, is known for siring runners of uncommon ability but distance limitations. Favorite Trick, though speedy, looks like he might go farther than the pundits think. Jockey Pat Day (Li´l E. Tee, first ´92) said the horse was too eager in Arkansas and that his torrid early fractions cost him the race. The colt was well campaigned at two and is mature and robust; he certainly has a right to improve off of his last race. Remember also that he has won three times at Churchill. Don´t know if he will improve enough, but he´s in the best of hands. Trainer Bill Mott (Cigar) seems circumspect about a Derby start while the owner (surprise) holds no such reservations. The colt fails on the bunkum dosage index, which may create parimutuel value. An Arkansas rope-a-dope could be his favorite trick. Don´t overlook; this is a racehorse.

INDIAN CHARLIE (8, 2/1)- Named for the Matt Drudge of the backstretch, the anthropic Charlie authors an irreverent newsletter and tip sheet. We spied the equine version at Del Mar last August and knew he was the goods. Undefeated in all four career starts, we were hoping Chuck would come up a little short in the Santa Anita Derby when he jumped into stakes company for the first time. Our hopes were crushed when he routinely dusted a nice bunch in that Grade I event, thereby killing any chance for value in Louisville. Trained by red hot Bob Baffert (Silver Charm, winner ´97 and our pick, Cavonnier, second by a nose ´96), the Injun is a real looker and likely to be the betting favorite. Lack of seasoning concerns us but his pedigree is solid (sire is the good In Excess) as his partner, Gary Stevens (first on Winning Colors ´88, Thunder Gulch ´95, and Silver Charm ´97). Lots of momentum, no value.

HALORY HUNTER (4, 7/2)- This colt´s performance reads like a derby dream. He closed well to be third in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, then exploded in the Blue Grass to blow by Lil´s Lad and Capetown, after a dream fence-skimming trip. Trainer Zito knows the Derby combination (Strike the Gold ´90 and Go for Gin ´94). He´s owned by roundball legend Rick Pitino and Corey Nakatani rides (0 for 4 in Louisville). His sire, Jade Hunter is an atypical son of Mr. Prospector, whose get tend to develop late. Not out of the question that he could be the betting favorite at postime, an ocurrence that holds little attraction to us. We´ll hunt for better value.

CAPE TOWN (11, 6/1)- The survivor of D. Wayne´s boot camp, this son of Seeking the Gold (seventh `88) won the Florida Derby on a justifiable claim of foul against Lil´s Lad. His wide Blue Grass trip got him a second in the Blue Grass. Jerry Bailey (first on Sea Hero ´93, picked here and Grindstone ´96) picked up the mount after Lil´s Lad went on the shelf. Will be well placed and odds should be square; a definite factor. If Archbishop Tutu gives the invocation and Ladysmith Black Mambazo performs "My Old Kentucky Home" in the infield, look out.

REAL QUIET (3, 8/1)- The other Baffert horse which runs as a separate betting interest from Chuckie. His sire, the oxymoronically named Quiet American, is off to a great start. Though known mostly for speed, the American is a son of Fappiano, sire of Unbridled (first ´90, picked here). Furthermore, Real Quiet´s running style cries out for more ground; he chased Chuckie home in the Santa Anita Derby. Owns no wins in ´98; last derby winner with that onus was Sea Hero. Cajun Kent Desormeaux ( third, Pleasant Tap´90 and Free House ´97) rides. His second dam (grandma) is a full sister to Majestic Prince (first, ´69). The dosage cult will not utter a whisper for this guy; we might.

VICTORY GALLOP (13, 15/1)- Arkansas Derby winner closed with a rush to annex that event over a track that is not friendly to late-runners. The grossly underrated Alex Solis will be up and his young trainer, Elliot Walden, is sizzling. Sire Cryptoclearance (fourth ´87) provides the necessary stamina for the route; if he wins, he´ll have plenty left for a victory gallop. Probably a notch low on proven class, but double-digit odds are tempting.

CHILITO (5, 30/1)- Surprise winner of the Flamingo will keep the pace honest and his sire, Strawberry Road produces stayers. Question is do you believe the Flamingo or the rest of the performance lines? We don´t like to bet (or not bet) horses off of one race. Owner had the favorite in 1991 in Hansel (tenth). Young English trainer is a Derby virgin but making his mark well on the Maryland circuit. A win here would send a chillo grande through the chalkeaters.

HANUMAN HIGHWAY (6, 50-1)- Confronted a couple of roadblocks on the road home in Arkansas and still missed by only a head. Started his career in England in minor competition. Definitely on the improve, but Hot Springs was far and away his best effort. Lady trainer, Kathy Walsh, is competitive in the tough SoCal circuit, but without derby experience; he figures to like the distance. If you like price, he should be flying at the end.

ARTAX (12, 12/1)- Named for a pony in a child´s book, this fella looked a short price after nailing two Santa Anita Derby preps. Sent off at 5/2 in the Santa Anita Derby, connections tried to contain his early speed which resulted in a distant third. Owner Ernie Paragallo offended nearly everyone last year with his mismanagement of Unbridled´s Song. To his credit, he has said he has learned to keep his mouth shut. "Yo Oinie you blew it." Hall of Famer Chris McCarron (Alysheba ´87, Go for Gin ´94) gives almost anyone a chance; derby gods will keep ole Ern in purgatory a while longer. But if he wins, look for the White House to propose an ar-tax in his honor.

PARADE GROUND (10, 20/1)- A month ago, the Farish interests looked like they would have three starters. Injury to Lil´s Lad and a disappointing Flamingo for Comic Strip left this guy as the standard bearer. Made a huge middle move in the Wood Memorial, then hung a bit while finishing third on the speed favoring track. Distance should pose no problem and he´s definitely on the rise. Louisianian Shane Sellers picks up the mount after getting bounced off of Cape Town by D. Wayne. Consider.

ROCK AND ROLL (9, 50/1)- Suffix to the sixties anthem: sex, drugs, and… this colt is the property of Madeline (Mrs. Cigar) Paulson and Jenny Craig. Also a Mott trainee, doesn´t look like he will meet his acid test.

OLD TRIESTE (13, 15/1)- Very impressive two year old that trailed Charlie in his first three year old outing, Then blew away non winners of two on Santa Anita Derby day by ten lengths. Looked like a real sleeper until he worked six furlongs a fifth of a second off the track record at Church. This will reduce his odds and may have taken too much out of him. By champion A.P. Indy and out of the great racemare, Lovelier Linda, his pedigree is classic. Leading Fair Grounds rider, Robby Albarado, rides in his derby debut.

NATIONALORE (1, 50/1)- This guy was actually a slight favorite over the Injun in their debut at Del Mar last year. He was a distant second that day and is still winless though finishing third in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile. Tries to become the first maiden since Broker´s Tip (´33) to do the business. Won´t happen.

BASIC TRAINEE (2, 50/1)- We signed up for this guy in the Wood at 45-1 and he ran a respectable fourth. He sports a derby pedigree (dad is Majestic Light) but is a work in progress. Not ready for any stripes yet.

ROBINWOULD (15, 50/1)- Showed promise at Hot Springs, but got knocked around in the Arkansas Derby. AARP members may want to play a hunch on 51 year old jockey, Earlie Fires. He was second on Francie´s Hat in ´68 and last derby mount was in ´74.

THE RACE- Reaching concilience in the Kentucky Derby is, for us, a deductive process. We eliminate the can´t wins and can´t bets first. Then begins the tedious process of winnowing the possibles. The departure of Lil´s lad and Event of the Year hurt on two scores. Both would have been heavily bet and would have been found wanting for reasons no longer worth belaboring. Indian Charlie will be the likely favorite and may well be good enough. But four lifetime starts and 2-1 holds no appeal to us. We hold Favorite Trick in deep admiration. He was as good a two year old as we´ve seen. Neither of his three year old starts impressed us greatly. He was sent to Arkansas explicitly to duck the triumvirate in the Blue Grass and still came up short. His dosage has nothing to do with it. We think the late developers have caught up with his adolescent precocity. Kentuckians always unload on Pat Day, so the price won´t be too rich. Yeah, we know Li´l E. Tee and Grindstone parlayed Arkansas Derby defeats into roses at Churchill, but out he goes. If we don´t like the Trick, how can we like the other horses in the frame in Hot Springs? The answer is we don´t. Out go Victory Gallup and Hanuman Highway. These are all good horses and are difficult throwouts.

Next come the speed horses. Artax and Chilito don´t figure to carry their talent a mile and a quarter; see ya. Halory Hunter is a real danger, but presents no value. Zito has talked the price down with comparisons to Strike the Gold (first, ´91); the hunter becomes the hunted. Robinwould won´t.

This leaves the closers: Parade Ground, Cape Town, and Real Quiet. Parade Ground will surely be passing horses at the end, but he just doesn´t seem fast enough; we just can´t envision the Tampa Bay Derby as a launching pad to glory in Kentucky. Cape Town is seasoned at the highest level; he´ll be rallying when it counts. But the thought of D. Wayne´s pearly whites and Oakleys in the winner´s enclosure conjures The Donald at another ribbon-cutting. Real Quiet is in a good spot; he wants to go further, has top class experience, and is training well. Should be part of the exacta under any scenario.

OUR PICK- Racetrackers have a perjorative for players that are suckers for heavy favorites: the term is moto (master of the obvious). A moto will plunge at ten times his normal level on a "sure thing." At the other end of the spectrum lies what A.J. Liebling, in his brilliant collection of boxing essays, called the short-end bettor. He describes the poor soul thusly:

"The short end addict is a man who can never resist a long price, even when he knows it isn´t long enough. In the case of the short-endomaniac subjected to daily temptation, the disease takes a galloping, or geometrically progressive form. When he has lost a hundred short-end bets, he needs a 100-1 shot to break him even. He never lands the 100-1 shot.

"On the motivation of the short-ender there have been many theories. One is that he is too fundamentally greedy to contemplate risking five dollars to win one under any circumstances. Another is that he has a craving for distinction that drives him to accept a thousand losing bets in the hope of being able to say in his old age that he made a killing on Jim Dandy or Harry Truman. A third is that he is an anti-social sadist, eager to rejoice in the discomfiture of the majority."

Few of us are pure-bred motos or short-enders although your editor´s pedigree is weighted heavily to the latter. The motos of the orbit are assured of one thing: there is so much speed in this race that it can´t be won from the front. Oh yeah? Coronado´s Quest, Lil´s Lad, and Event of the Year are out. Chilito? He´s been working head and head with the tractor since arriving in Louisville. Artax? After running superbly on the front end, his connections decided to rate him in the Santa Anita Derby to insure his being able to stay the grueling derby distance. Favorite Trick? Rider Day lamented his eagerness at Oaklawn; they want him to take back a bit. Indian Charlie? You can bet Bobby will tell Gary to "lay behind the speed and save some horse for the drive."

If you took Saddam and the points, thought the Cubs look cheap at 80-1, think North Korea is the next Asian Tiger, bet the over on Pol Pot, are sure the Saints are improving, your life is about to change for the better. A zip code payoff awaits you in Louisville. You, my friend, are going for the ride of your life. From gate to wire, start to finish, pillar to post, every pole a winning one. Make the pace, lead the pack, show the way. Short-enders of the world, this Bud´s for you!

Seriously, folks, handicapping this derby has been a maddening experience. We can literally go ten deep with possible winners and at least half that far with probables. So why not take a flyer.

Here´s the good news on our pick: His pedigree is as good as anyone´s. His sire, A.P. Indy, was horse of the year twice and would have almost surely have won the 1992 edition of this race had not a bruised foot forced a last minute scratch from the race. His dam is Lovelier Linda, a grade one stakes winner of over a half million. In the first three generations of his family lie the brilliance of Triple Crown Champions Seattle Slew and Secretariat as well as the stamina of the hearty Grey Dawn II. Also throw in the fine Crozier (second, ´61). This is a blooded colt. Importantly, he was well-raced at two, including a close second to Souvenir Copy in the Grade II Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita. Of all the variables that go into picking winners in this event, we would rank pedigree and two year old experience at the top.

Bone chip surgery forced a five month gap between the Norfolk and his first of two three year old starts.

In his ´98 debut, he forced the pace in a mile allowance race won by Indian Charlie, before tiring to lose by six lengths. He returned on Santa Anita Derby day and romped by ten under the same conditions, encouraged only by the hands of the rider. Our pick traveled that mile a fifth of a second slower than Indian Charlie did in the Santa Anita Derby two races earlier. Of course Chuck went another eighth of a mile in his race. Nonetheless, it gives us a reference point; and our firm belief is that our pick would have been no worse than third in that race. On to Kentucky: a solid three quarter mile work on April 13 in 1:12 3/5; then a stout mile in 1:38 4/5 a week later. Now comes the x factor. On Sunday last, he works another three quarters in 1:09 flat, two fifths over the track record. "I don´t know whether to smile or throw up," said the trainer. Trainers are always fearful that a too fast work will knock a horse out, but all post effort reports indicated the horse did it with ease and returned unscathed. "I´m pumped," spoke the rider after the work. Well, so are we.

But here are the disclaimers. At 15-1, there would be a few. Our pick is lightly raced at three and has never raced beyond a mile. Trainer Mike Puype and rider Robby Albarado are derby first timers. The trainer wins his share on the toughest racing circuit in America and the rider leads the league in the cradle of jockeys, Louisiana. This is a bit of a stab, but what better year for it? After eulogizing Eddie Arcaro, we need an Italian flavor. How about OLD TRIESTE?

We got stuffed in the draw and will break from the far outside. We´ll need that early foot to get the lead into the first turn. We hope that Stevens, McCarron, and Day won´t take us seriously and let us go. And go we will. Let´s hope the pedigree cranks in when we hit the top of the lane.

THE BET- At these odds, we´ll go win and place on O.T. Get a saving win bet on Real Quiet. We´ll box exactas and trifectas with Real Quiet and Capetown. And if you want a superfecta, throw in Indian Charlie.

BUON GIORNO!

SPECIAL BONUS PICK- To help you build your bankroll, herewith is the winner of the Early Times Turf Classic, the final pre-lim on Derby Day. New Orleans was blessed this winter with one of the most talented grass runners we have ever seen. A son of Nureyev, Joyeux Danseur, does his name proud. He is trained by local rising star Al Stall,Jr. The price will be modest, but well above moto levels. Most importantly, it will give our rider, Robby Albarado, a win going into the big one.

BUON FORTUNA!