Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 2001 - 22th Edition

"Mister Gorbachev tear down this wall!" When Ronald Reagan cast this imperative at the leader of the Soviet Union, even those with little or no respect for our then President, recognized the high drama and propriety of the challenge. Few who heard those remarks in 1987 expected that in two short years the Berlin Wall would indeed be dismembered. Fewer still would have predicted that epic occurrence early in November of 1989 was for serious racing fans a below the fold story. For it was then that one of sports´ most brief but intense rivalries came to an end.

Rivalry is a term used without discipline in today´s sports community. The term traces to rivus, the Latin word for stream. The more immediate Latin root is rivalis, one who used the same stream (presumably not in comity) with another. Back when Roman numerals meant something more than affected designations for Super Bowls and Wrestlemania Events, there were some genuine rivalries. Richard I (the Lion-Hearted) versus Saladin in Crusade III comes to mind. Henry VIII versus Clement VII was certainly another.

In the sport that is topical here, the 1938 match race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral launched the East vs. West rivalry that is as keen today as it was then. The memorable confrontations of Nashua (east) and Swaps (west) also culminated in a literal match race in 1955. In 1978 even the most casual racing fan was drawn to the series of bang up one-two finishes of Affirmed (west) and Alydar (east) in the Triple Crown. Great as they all were, another rivalry in 1989 touched your editor more personally: Sunday Silence versus Easy Goer.

Please don´t call me Ishmael, but do read on with patience. Horse tales much like stories about shaggy dogs take some telling. Like the aforementioned matchups, the1989 series carded east versus west. Easy Goer was old money. A result of a mating between Alydar and the worshipful Buckpasser mare, Relaxing, the colt had to become a champion else he would be labeled an underachiever. At the end of 1988, he was voted two-year old champion nearly unanimously. At that point he was not just being compared to his sire; Easy Goer was being mentioned as the second coming of, yes, Secretariat. Consider this: in his 20 lifetime starts, Easy Goer was the betting favorite 19 times and the odds-on choice in 18 of them. The result would be 14 wins, 5 seconds, and a third for an accumulated bankroll of $4.9 million.

In the other corner stood Sunday Silence. While not boasting the pedigree of his future opponent, he was no arriviste. The colt was a son of the important Halo (sire of ´83 Derby winner Sunny´s Halo) and his dam, Wishing Well, had a distinguished race record in California and notable stamina. But Sunday Silence, as they might say today, had issues. As a foal, he contracted a severe intestinal virus, which barely missed taking his life and left him emaciated. Even after recovery, his cow-like hocks caused his stride to resemble that of an ingénue piloting her first pair of heels.

His breeders consigned Sunday Silence to Arthur Hancock to be sold at a yearling auction. When the high bid stalled at $16,000, Hancock bid $17,000 in the assumption that the breeders would not want to let him go for such a low number. He was mistaken; "He´s all yours," is in effect what they told him.

A yearling auction is roughly the equivalent of a teen beauty contest. A horse´s pedigree is its genetic code and is fixed for life, but every other aspect that will make a runner is undetermined. There is no meter to measure desire in an untried baby, and while crooked legs don´t usually go straight, the space from adolescence to maturity can bring abrupt physical change. And so Arthur Hancock thought he might have some luck the following spring selling the colt out west in a two-year old sale. By that age, sale horses have been adapted to the saddle and have enough training to reduce the chance of success from the lottery level to the raffle level. The price, of course, is usually dearer. Hancock placed a reserve of $50,000 on his mistake. He was high bid again; this time at $32,000. A decent looker with the colt´s parentage would have brought five to ten times that price.

Unfortunately the wise guys didn´t think Sunday Silence´s looks had improved much at all. One trainer, who had reviewed the colt for its breeders prior to the yearling offering, made a one-word notation on his catalogue page at the two-year-old sale: "worse." So it was back to his owner´s Kentucky farm for Sunday Silence, but not before a fortnight´s stay in a Texas clinic to recover from wounds incurred when the van carrying him flipped. The colt didn´t know it, but his luck was about to change; and this time it would be for the better.

The wise guys might have missed Sunday Silence but a certified wise man did not. The Bald Eagle himself, Charlie Whittingham, knew the offspring of Halo well as they´d picked up the tab for more than a few of his favorite martini and steak evenings. Charlie coughed up $50,000 for a half interest in a two-horse package that included Sunday Silence. He immediately laid off half of his half to a friend and took into his care, arguably, the greatest horse he would ever train. Sunday Silence was headed west again. The series of indignities that marked Sunday Silence´s youth could not have created more contrast with the manorial early days of Easy Goer. From the day he was foaled, two uncertainties affecting the lives of most thoroughbreds were not present. Easy Goer would run under the black and cherry silks of his breeder, Ogden Phipps, and would debut at either Belmont or Saratoga in the state of New York.

An interesting subplot involved the principal owners of the two protagonists. Arthur Hancock was the oldest son of Bull Hancock, the legend of Claiborne Farm. In his youth Arthur had been somewhat of an easy goer himself with a greater interest in honky tonks than farm management meetings. He was not known for silence on Sundays or any other day of the week. At Bull´s death in 1972, an advisory board, which included Ogden Phipps, passed over Arthur in favor of his younger brother, Seth, for the succession. Elba, for Arthur, took the form of Stone Farm, a few furlongs down the road from the family nursery. It was there that he stood the stallions, Halo and Cougar II, and sought the goal that had eluded his accomplished father: breeding and owning a Kentucky Derby winner. A brief ten years later, he would stand next to a homebred son of Cougar II draped in roses in the Churchill Downs winners´ circle. Gato Del Sol came from last to first at an inviting 21-1 to give Arthur Hancock and this letter a first Derby win.

For Ogden Phipps a Derby win would be nice but was not to be coveted. One wouldn´t want to be seen rushing a young three-year-old to the Derby at the expense of later New York fixtures such as the Belmont and Travers Stakes. In the insular world of upper class New York, where the rule was "win as if you are used to it and lose as if it doesn´t matter," Ogden Phipps sat with, what Mark Twain once called, "the confidence of a Christian holding four aces." At the age of 80 and a lifetime of racing top horses, his only Derby entries had been Dapper Dan (2nd, ´65) and Seeking the Gold (7th, ´88). But in the summer of 1988, Phipps could easily put aside Seeking the Gold´s Derby. Not only did his stable boast the invincible older mare, Personal Ensign, but house trainer Claude "Shug" McGaughey was winding up the talk of the Belmont backside for his first start. Still in his thirties when plucked by Phipps for private duty, Shug was sitting chilly going into that that summer.

McGaughey had bided his time with the promising colt and waited till the last week of Belmont´s summer meet to start him. The favored Easy Goer left the gate tardily, but got rolling late with a rally that fell a nose short of the win. Three weeks later at Saratoga, he was pounded into 3/5 favoritism and rewarded his backers with a facile 2½ length maiden win. His next start against winners brought the same betting odds but this time the winning margin was 5 ½ lengths. When he romped in a pair of Grade I´s (the Cowdin and Champagne) at deep odds-on prices, the anointing ritual by the Eastern scribes was underway. "His name is Easy Goer and ten years from now you may see it carved in marble," gushed the New York Times.

Now only the Breeders Cup Juvenile Colts race at Churchill Downs was between Easy Goer and a pre-Derby, winter freshening in Florida. The weather for the race was Macbethian and the track was muddy. Less than an hour before the Juvenile, Personal Ensign had seemed beaten for the first time in her career, but came charging out of the gloom to nail Kentucky Derby Champion, Winning Colors, by a nose. The grand Phipps mare would retire to motherhood a perfect 12 for 12.

The bettors were undaunted by Easy Goer´s unfamiliarity with the burgoo-like Churchill going and stamped him an unbettable 1/5 chalk. Laffit Pincay, however, stole a soft lead aboard longshot Is It True. By the time Easy Goer got in gear, Laffit was home with an upset and Easy Goer was a rapidly closing second. None doubted who was the superior colt and the press afforded all the alibis necessary to secure that view. Easy Goer was the two-year-old champion, the heavy winter book favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and bound for his coastal redoubt.

At the barn of Charlie Whittingham, progress was dropping slowly. The nearly black colt that Charlie "kinda liked" did not come to hand until early fall. His adolescent antics (in one incident he ducked out from the track and went spread-eagle in the parking lot) earned him the nickname "Sunday stop it." Sunday Silence got beat a neck in his first start and then screamed his arrival with a 10-length maiden victory at Hollywood the week after the Breeders´Cup. There would be no winter holiday in Sunday Silence´s diary, he and Charlie had some catching up to do. After a couple more wins, the colt entered the Santa Anita Derby as the second choice to the Wayne Lukas trained, $2.9 million yearling speedball, Houston. Sunday Silence responded with a devastating 11-length win that under any other circumstances would have launched him into Derby favoritism. But the eastern spring had also brought the three-year-old debut of Easy Goer. After an 8-¾-length romp in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream at 2/5 odds, the show moved north. At Aqueduct, backed into 1/20 (not a misprint readers, but the track had to pay the 1/5 minimum) favoritism, Easy Goer answered with a 13-length runaway in the Gotham Stakes. His final prep was the Wood Memorial where as a 1/10 proposition, the Daily Racing Form chartist wrote that the colt "accelerated under confident handling and was drawing away under mild encouragement." That cinched it: Easy Goer was truly the second coming of Secretariat. So called experts even suggested, sotto voce, that Secretariat´s loss to stable-mate, Angle Light, in the Wood Memorial, might mean that Easy Goer was more accomplished than Big Red at that common career juncture. When the two colts made their initial appearances in training preps at Churchill Downs, Easy Goer´s favoritism went from overwhelming to insurmountable. In his morning gallops, Easy Goer began to resemble the "great machine" that announcer Chick Hearn described in Secretariat´s Belmont. Sunday Silence´s near-black coat glistened and his handy athleticism was apparent; but in physical scope there was no contest. Had they been boxers, Easy Goer would have been a rippling heavyweight (think Lennox Lewis) and Sunday Silence, one of those weedy long-limbed middleweights (e.g. Thomas, "Hitman," Hearns).

Although the arrogance of the eastern press was annoying, there were no villains in the saga. Ogden Phipps was a man of respect and his "aw shucks" trainer was genuine. Shug McGaughey, a native Kentuckian, had not moved closer to Pericles by his two years at the University of Mississippi. His gurgling drawl required interpretation for most listeners, but his likeability was undeniable. Jockey Pat Day´s scriptural references may have drawn rolled eyes from the New York elite, but he was a top rider who looked primed for his first Derby win. "Somewhere, there´s a Derby with my name on it," he had repeated without rancor after his previous 6 unsuccessful tries.

On the other side, Charlie Whittingham´s prime still lingered. Fresh from an ´86 shocker with 17-1 chance Ferdinand (picked here), the master was stoic. "He´ll win," he pronounced emphatically about Sunday Silence. When told that Easy Goer was a super horse, his glib response was: "He better be," delivered with Joe Friday precision. Sunday Silence´s rider, Pat Valenzuela, possessed a singular communicative spirit with his mounts, and had apparently eliminated lapses involving drugs and alcohol that had compromised his career.

On race day the sun did not shine bright on anyone´s Kentucky home. A 20 mph headwind blew up the Churchill stretch, noon looked like dusk, the track was sloppy, and the smart set modeled overcoats. Charlie had a final pre-race pronouncement, delivered with Joyceian complexity: "Now we´ll find out where Molly hid the peaches." If Pat Day were looking for providential clues for his unfulfilled Derby quest, he found them early in the Derby under card as he won an ineffable 5 races in a row leading up to the main event. When they loaded, Easy Goer´s was the 4/5 pick with Sunday Silence the second choice at 3/1. As expected, Houston went straight to the lead. After a few ceremonial bumps, Sunday Silence settled in fourth with Easy Goer a stride behind. They continued so all down the backstretch until Valenzuela pushed go and Sunday Silence went with Easy Goer and entry mate Awe Inspiring pursuing in vain. Sunday Silence was safely home 2-lengths to the good of Easy Goer, who took the place. Before the roses reached the winner´s withers, Easy Goer was being portrayed as the victim of the mud. The chant continued in the press for the entire two weeks leading to the Preakness. The arguments were so convincing that Easy Goer was the 3/5 fave at postime with the Derby winner at 2/1. On a track surface that was pickpocket fast, what followed was simply one of the greatest races…ever. Houston again set the pace, but seconds into the race any schoolboy could read the plot. Easy Goer was again tracking from the fifth spot with his quarry in fourth. A ½ mile into the race they had only Houston before them. This time it was Easy Goer who moved first sweeping by Sunday Silence into the far turn. When Valenzuela tried to go with him, Angel Cordero moved Houston off the rail just enough to force him to check and Pat Day was quickly enjoying a 2-length advantage with a quarter mile left to go. Sunday Silence accelerated again and from that point on, they raced as one, Easy Goer on the rail, head turned outward, his right eye staring straight into Sunday Silence´s left eye no more than inches apart. Dave Johnson on the call: "Easy Goer on the inside with a slight lead, photo finish, noses apart, I can´t tell." Pat Valenzuela raised his right hand and Pat Day cast his eyes directly into his horse´s mane. Sunday Silence was one win away from the Triple Crown.

With track conditions no longer a factor, the Easy Goer apologists found a fresh target: rider Pat Day. "The worst big race rider in America," cackled one idiot. To handicappers like your editor, the probabilities were shifting dramatically in Easy Goer´s favor: the Belmont would be run a stroll from his barrack, on a track he savored, and at a distance he was made for. Sunday Silence, nearly two months on the road already, would be competing on a strange track for the third race in a row. Nevertheless, the appeal of a potential Triple Crown winner sent Sunday Silence a slight choice over his rival. At the conclusion of the race, Sunday Silence had run the third fastest Belmont in history. Sadly for him though, Easy Goer had run the second fastest. The Phipps colt swept by the field into the far turn and won with all the authority he had displayed in his pre-Sunday Silence endeavors. With the mathematical turpitude of a Soviet era economist, the Boston Globe declared: "Triple Crown ends in a draw." For Sunday Silence fans it was just another Travis Bickle moment.

The picture was now clear. If Sunday Silence had any chance to be voted champion, he would have to beat Easy Goer 3 out of 4. Charlie knew his horse needed a break and offered "we´d both rather run against blue cows and donkeys for a while." Shug´s schedule for Easy Goer was clear: an all New York summer and early fall leading to the Breeders´ Cup Classic at Gulfstream in November. That would be the venue to settle the score and give the Easy Goers their "rubber match."

The Easy Goer blitz never broke stride that summer, nor did his fawning followers. He captured 4 consecutive Grade I´s (Whitney, Travers, Woodward, and Jockey Club Gold Cup) "Drew off under a hand ride," read the Daily Racing Form chart for all. "Horse racing may have just entered the era of Easy Goer," offered the Associated Press. Meanwhile Charlie backed off with Sunday Silence after his upset loss in the Swaps. He would have only one more start before the biggie: a virtual walkover in the Louisiana Super Derby.

The 1989 Breeders´ Cup was your editor´s first. The experience brought a vow to never miss another. The Phipps-McGaughey team started the day right with Dancing Spree grabbing the Sprint over a fast track made more so by a late morning shower. The steamy mid-day reminded that Miami in November dead heats Saratoga in August. By Classic time, the breathing was much easier and in the paddock, the sunset produced a bronze patina around the participants. Easy Goer was in his accustomed position at the mutuels as the 2/5 choice with Sunday Silence offered at 2/1. Each of the other 6 entrants was priced in excess of 15/1. As the respective retinues processed into the paddock, a cluster of tasseled loafers, ample girths and vapid smiles moved to the location of the #1 horse, Easy Goer. The expressions held the sincerity of Verdi´s Duke of Mantua or Mozart´s Don Giovanni. The party scene in Evita, it seemed, had been airlifted from the Hamptons. At the #8 location, the notable absence in the scene was Pat Valenzuela. Despite his deep resolve, his inability to maintain his sobriety had resulted in another suspension, and Chris McCarron would partner Sunday Silence for the first time.

That pair would be on the outside of the eight entries with Easy Goer and Pat Day breaking from the rail. When the bugler blew Boots and Saddles, a rousing cheer and sustained applause greeted the field. The readiness to rumble was unanimous. Not being a short-end bettor, your editor was vexed. Loyalty to Sunday Silence forbade playing any of the long shots although Blushing John at 21/1 beckoned. The 2/1 price on a win bet was a square one, but not enough to eliminate earlier mistakes on the day´s card without an atm play. A peak at the exacta will pays held the answer: a cold 8-1 exacta (Sunday Silence over Easy Goer) would pay 5/1. That, to be sure, was the ticket. The roar had subsided to a buzz during the post parade but re-erupted when race caller, Tom Durkin, announced "The race of the decade, the $3 million Breeders´ Cup Classic, Sunday Silence versus Easy Goer. It´s post-time!"

Slew City Slew set a scorching pace. McCarron was comfortable laying fourth with Day another 5- lengths back in sixth position. "A brazen display of early speed," Durkin said of the leader. Midway the backstretch: "Sunday Silence poised on the outside third. Easy Goer has yet to do his best running, he is still 9-lengths behind the leader. He´s 5-lengths behind Sunday Silence, and now he´s beginning to roll!" The latter ejaculatory comment ignited the chalk players´ spirits and they roared loudly. Concurrently Slew City Slew was relinquishing the lead to Blushing John and Angel Cordero. For a brief instant, it seemed possible that Angel might pull off the upset. "Sunday Silence bracing for the oncoming power of Easy Goer who´s right at his neck!" At this point Sunday Silence accelerated into the turn and put daylight between himself and his rival. "At the top of the stretch Blushing John is under a hand ride; he leads by a length and a half. Sunday Silence a threatening presence on the outside. Easy Goer is set down and put into a fierce drive!" At this point, Sunday Silence put away the stubborn Blushing John, but Easy Goer was flying on the outside.

"Sunday Silence surges to the front….Easy Goer with 1 final acceleration…..Sunday Silence holds on and he wins by a desperate neck!" Durkin called it a racing epic, which it surely was, but the neck was not as desperate as it first appeared. McCarron used the whip sparingly, and not at all the last hundred yards. He stole a peek over his right shoulder and resumed a vigorous hand ride knowing he could not be caught.

During the presentation ceremony, the crowd grew still except for a small group of well- lubricated gents in the grandstand. No Dukes of Mantua here, they were closer to Lords of Flatbush. They lined up in a Rockette-like chorus line and began a synchronized kick while chanting "Chawlie, Chawlie" in tribute to Whittingham and his artistry. The master waved an acknowledgement, shaking his head in disbelief simultaneously.

The molars were grinding hard at the desks of the eastern members of the fourth estate. The consensus among them still had Easy Goer the better horse. Some continued to attack Pat Day and others became critical of Shug McGaughey. But then, who really cared? Sunday Silence was three-year-old champion and horse of the year.

All sides expected a rematch no later than the following year´s Breeders´ Cup; it was a rematch that would never be. Minor injuries forced both into retirement in 1990. From 14 starts, Sunday Silence garnered 9 wins (at 6 tracks in 5 states) and 5 seconds. Easy Goer would own but a single win outside of the state of New York.

The injuries that forced their retirements from racing held no threat to their futures for breeding. Easy Goer was ushered into the hallowed stallion barn at Claiborne Farm in succession to the recently deceased Secretariat. Anxious breeders vied for one of the 40 shares in the syndication with the intensity befitting a hot IPO.

If you harbored a suspicion that Sunday Silence´s Rodney Dangerfield streak had not run its course, you would be correct. When Arthur Hancock undertook the syndication of Sunday Silence, only 3 breeders were sufficiently impressed with his commercial potential to sign up. But in Japan, the stock market was in the final throes of a blow-off and horse racing was rocking. The Yoshida Family made a Godfather-type offer of $11 million for Sunday Silence, and the horse was sent off to the land of the rising yen. There were a few snickers and shaking heads amongst the Kentucky cognoscenti over the apparent largesse of the Japanese. While Sunday Silence familiarized himself with the code of the Kamasutra, Easy Goer busied himself with the Bluegrass´ finest mares. In May of ´94, Easy Goer´s first crop of unraced two-year-olds held high promise and the stallion was midway through his fourth breeding season. One morning his groom whistled for him and the horse came to him eagerly at a full gallop. Walking calmly to the barn at the end of a lead shank, Easy Goer collapsed and died of a heart attack. The loss was no less sickening for those who bet or pulled against him on the track; his worst races were very good and his best were singular. He certainly sired some useful stakes horses in his brief time including My Flag and Will´s Way, but none of his issue has approached himself. There is still some chance he could redeem himself as a broodmare sire. The exciting three-year-old colt, Songandaprayer, is from an Easy Goer mare and many of his daughters are now just beginning to get racing age produce.

Sunday Silence has become the prepotent sire in Japan. His stud fee now exceeds $200,000 and his offspring earned over $30 million last year. In a country that has had 11 prime ministers in 13 years, Sunday Silence is a constant and also a major celebrity. But so few of the Sunday Silence´s have raced outside of Japan, what can we make of the quality?

The recent Dubai World Cup provided a clue. Early on a Saturday morning we watched a series of 7 invitational races doling out $16 million in purse money courtesy of the Dubai Brothers. Top thoroughbreds from around the world shipped into Dubai to compete. We noticed a son and a daughter of Sunday Silence, both from Japan, in the entries. An old gambler´s maxim states: "bet with your head, not your heart." Easy for you, hard for me. Any resolve to pursue serious handicapping withered when I saw Sunday Silence #1, Stay Gold, in the walking ring. There he was, a nearly black, long-legged, narrow-chested scion with his neck bowed. Stay Gold got up by a nose at a mile and ¼ on the grass and returned 15/1. Sunday Silence #2, To the Victory, was a mare entered in the $6 million feature against the boys and was a 25/1 chance. Captain Steve and Jerry Bailey won it but not before the mare took the lead heading for home and hung on stubbornly for the place. As Sergeant Preston used to say to his trusty German shepherd: "Well King, I guess this case is closed."

The races of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer are rightly enshrined among racing´s richest memories. Their valor can only, for this writer, evoke the memory of the chant from George Orwell´s Animal Farm: "Two legs good, four legs better!"

EPILOGUE- Ogden Phipps- Still attending the races at age 92. His august stable has had lots of important wins but no Derby starter since Easy Goer. Shug McGaughey- Still in charge of the Phipps Stable and recognized as a top trainer. His speech has improved marginally. Arthur Hancock- Still very prominent in the business. Missed by a short head in ´99 winning his third Derby with Menifee (picked here). Charlie Whittingham- Despite failing health, he was still training horses within a couple of weeks of his death from leukemia a week before the Derby in 1999 at age 86. He has been suitably memorialized in bronze, with his dog Toby, at Santa Anita Park. Pat Day- There was a Derby with his name on it: Li´l E. Tee (´92). Still looking for #2, Menifee could not have come closer. Chris McCarron- Won his second Derby in the interim (Go for Gin, ´94). Still at the pinnacle of the profession and just became the seventh rider in history to record 7000 wins. Pat Valenzuela- Sobriety lapses have continued. He has not ridden in almost two years. An apparently successful year in rehab did not sufficiently impress the stewards who last month denied his application for reinstatement. He may reapply in six months.

LAST YEAR´S BET- We made win and place bets on MORE THAN READY and APTITUDE and boxed exactas and trifectas with those two and FUSAICHI PEGASUS. If IMPEACHMENT doesn´t nod MORE THAN READY for the show, it would have been an I.R.S. haul. Still your place bet on APTITUDE ($9.80) and the winning exacta ticket ($66.00) should have you well equipped to take a big swing at them this year.

THIS YEAR´S DERBY- Mycroft Holmes´ more famous brother would have called it "quite a three pipe problem." We call it the annual challenge: finding a bettable non-favorite in the Derby. Our problem is not the one that Mycroft´s brother Sherlock faced in the Scandal in Bohemia: "I have no data. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data." We are eyeball high in data and we have theorized to the point of dementia. But for the second year in a row, we are faced with a very deserving favorite. Trying to build a case against POINT GIVEN is a little like being appointed to the Devil´s Advocacy opposing the canonization of Mother Theresa. Popular though the colt is, POINT GIVEN is, for our purposes, Dr. Moriarty and must be defeated. We don´t possess the ability to see around corners, but like Sherlock Holmes (in Conan-Doyle´s Silver Blaze), we are taken by "the dog that didn´t bark in the night." This is a deep field and if the POINT doesn´t fire or gets blocked, several can take it. But what if he runs his race? There, indeed, is the rub. We think if our pick runs his best, it could be better than POINT GIVEN´s best. So let´s be about our task and review the field listed in order of post position and program number. Since all horses will run as separate betting interests (no entries, no field), post and program numbers are the same.

#1- SONGANDAPRAYER- By ´96 Derby favorite Unbridled Song, ex-NBA star Bobby Hurley forked over $1 million dollars last year to bring this guy home. First Derby try for trainer Dowd. Regular rider, Prado, opts to ride THUNDER BLITZ so colt will reunite with Aaron Gryder who won a stakes on him last year. Very athletic and very speedy, he ran his heart out to be second in the Blue Grass. This colt is a Grade I type at lesser distances and should be pointed to the Preakness. For him to win the Derby will require a songandaprayerandamiracle.

#2- MILLENIUM WIND- by Cryptoclearance, best known for siring ´98 runner-up and Belmont winner Victory Gallop. His dam, Bali Babe is also the mom of ´99 Derby winner, Charismatic. No wonder he brought $1.2 million as a yearling. Apparently named for the previous White House occupant, he was a competitive second to POINT GIVEN in the Hollywood Futurity. Has been bothered by foot problems that surfaced in prep for his second place finish in the Louisiana Derby. Made all the running in the Blue Grass but can rate as well. Trainer Hofmans a Derby rookie but nailed the Breeders Cup Classic with Alphabet Soup in ´96 over the great Cigar and the Belmont with Touch Gold in ´97. Laffit Pincay rides. ´Nuff said.

#3- BALTO STAR- By sprint-sire, Glitterman, this gelding at least has some stamina influences on his dam´s side (Halo and Stage Door Johnny). Never headed and hardly used in the Spiral Stakes and Arkansas Derby, conjures memories of frontrunners Spend a Buck, ´85 and Winning Colors, ´88. When we first heard of this horse, we thought his name was Balthazar, and if he carries his speed a mile and ¼ anyone who bets him will look like one of the Magi. Regardless of who his victims have been, this guy has not been asked to empty his tank yet so dismiss at your peril. Second trips for another ex-Lucas proténgén, Todd Pletcher, as well as rider Mark Guidry. Presence of so much other speed in the race makes a front-running winner unlikely. Investors in dot-com stocks looking for an omen might like to know that last gelding to win the Derby was Clyde Van Dusen in ´29.

#4-THUNDER BLITZ- By ´94 Derby favorite Holy Bull, late developing colt took 4 tries to get maiden win, but was very impressive in winning the Flamingo in second lifetime win. Stable mate of sidelined Breeders´ Cup Juvenile champ, Macho Uno (also by Holy Bull and also gray) has trained sensationally since arriving in Kentucky. First trip for trainer Joe Orseno and second for jock Edgar Prado though both are accomplished. Colt´s dam is by Assert, winner of the English and French Derbies over 1½ mile so pedigree not a worry. Will be a very big price and is a very live play.

#5-FIFTY STARS- By Quiet American whose Real Quiet (picked here) won the ´98 renewal, this guy slipped through on the rail to nail the Louisiana Derby. His rally in the Lone Star Derby fell a neck short on a speed-biased track. Trainer Steve (brother of rider Cash) Asmussen and rider Donnie Meche are Derby rookies but had huge meets this past winter at Fair Grounds. Another who should like more real estate but we will see a hundred stars if he takes it all.

#6- EXPRESS TOUR- By the useful Florida stallion, Tour D´Or, this colt dominated the Florida stallion series for 2-year-olds and was privately purchased (reportedly $1.2 mill) by the Godolphin (Dubai) Stable. Ex- Dubai policeman (ethnic profiling is not an issue there since everyone has a black beard and a white burnoose) Saeed bin Suroor saddled the sixth and seventh place finishers last year. In his only start at 3, the colt came back to defeat mate, Street Cry, in the Dubai Derby. The latter was third in last year´s Breeders´ Cup Juvenile and was expected to be the stronger half of the entry but has ankle problems and will miss the Derby. EXPRESS has scorched the track in Kentucky and gets California vet David Flores as a partner. Big questions are pedigree and whether the colt will be as tight as needed with only 1 start at 3. He´ll have to be tighter than a camel´s ass in a sandstorm to win this one. The Tour de Flores could be a tour de force.

#7- ARCTIC BOY- By 2- year-old champ Maria´s Mon, connections blame his last place finish in the Arkansas Derby on the muddy track. Could be but can´t see any form to justify his presence here. Even a North Pole venue wouldn´t move him up.

#8- CONGAREE- By wonder horse Arazi, he is the second barrel in the Baffert arsenal. Went gate to wire in the Wood Memorial in just his fourth career start. Owned by the proprietor of the new Houston entry in the NFL, colt is named for the eponymous river in South Carolina. First trip to Derby for young riding sensation, Victor Espinoza. The colt has done nothing wrong but inexperience is a worry. Remember Stephen Got Even, Pulpit, and Indian Charlie? All of those wunderkind regressed in the Derby. Just can´t join this Conga Line.

#9- A.P. VALENTINE- By the champion A.P. Indy, his win over POINT GIVEN in the Champagne made him the bettor´s choice in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile producing a Valentine´s Day Massacre for the chalk-eaters as he arrived home 14th and last. Set a track record at Hialeah before bombing again in the Blue Grass. Nick "Alibi" Zito has had an excuse at every dark turn and owner Coach Rick Pitino seconds every one of Nicky´s emotions. Top rider in Nakitani but he has not hit the board in 8 Derby tries. A.P. has some nice works in Louisville but just too inconsistent to get our support.

#10- DOLLAR BILL- By Canadian Champion, Peaks and Valleys, colt went off favored in the Louisiana Derby, which he was lucky to survive after clipping heels while going for a closing hole. Came from the rear in the Blue Grass to be a well-closing third. Should relish additional ground but wise-guy support may inhibit value as will Churchill favorite Pat Day. Second appearance for ex-Lucas assistant and New Orleans native, trainer Dallas Stewart ("This is war. We are here to kick ass."). Will pass a lot of horses in the stretch, but we´d rather book this Bill than bet on him.

#11-TALK IS MONEY- By the revered Deputy Minister, he was 19 lengths back of MONARCHOS in the Florida Derby and 10 lengths to the aft of THUNDER BLITZ in the Flamingo before running a game second in the Tesio at Pimlico. Apart from the fact that his connections were able to secure an idle Jerry Bailey to pilot (money is talking we think), there is no reason to think that a first half finish is likely.

#12-STARTAC- By the great grass sire Theatrical, we had this one on our watch list until a couple uninspiring efforts in Northern California prep races. A last minute addition for the widow of Allen Paulson (Cigar and others), at least gets the riding services of Alex Solis. Getting this one home first will be a greater fantasy than Star-Trek.

#13-INVISIBLE INK- Another son of Thunder Gulch, and Pletcher´s second-teamer. No problem with rider Velasquez. Colt was third in the Florida Derby and fourth in the Blue Grass, but failed to seriously threaten in either. When his connections see the winning photo, they may rename the stable Invisible, Inc.

#14- KEATS- By bright young sire Hennessy, this colt seemed out of the Derby picture until a poetic front-running win in the last chance Derby prep ( Lexington Stakes). Certainly figures to keep Balto Star busy on the front end. Trainer O´Callaghan and rider Melancon are having a good year together and both know the territory.

#15-JAMAICAN RUM- By relatively unknown sire Exemplary Leader, this colt is one of those one-paced plodders who never seem to get tired. Closed a lot of ground to be third to POINT GIVEN in the San Felipe and second to BALTO STAR in the Arkansas Derby. It was just this kind of horse that rider Eddie Delahoussaye brought home in 1982 (Gato Del Sol). A lot of the field will be coming back to this one in the lane. Race could set up late for a rum punch.

#16- MONARCHOS- By ´95 2- year old champ, Maria´s Mon, jumped from maiden ranks to win Florida Derby two starts later. Sweeping move in that race launched him into favoritism in the Wood Memorial, where he closed willingly to be second, but no threat to the winner, CONGAREE. The quality of the Florida Derby field is now questionable as is that of the horses behind him in the Wood. Second Derby appearance for veteran trainer John T. Ward who said he didn´t want too tough of an effort in the Wood. However, top N.Y. rider, Jorge "Chop Chop" Chavez lived up to his nickname by making Monarchos work hard every step of the last ¾ mile. Has trained well over the Churchill strip, but our work says he won´t hit the board though he could be second or third choice in the betting.

#17- POINT GIVEN- By 1995 Derby winner and sizzling sire Thunder Gulch, his favoritism is certainly a point taken. What is there not to like? Since his cyclonic close fell a head short in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile, he has been a dominator in California. In the Santa Anita Derby, he looked as though he was just reaching cruising altitude at the end of the mile and an eighth. Trainer Bob Baffert won the Derby in ´97 and ´98, and his rider Gary Stephens won the Derby in ´88, ´95, and´97. Seems fine with the Churchill surface and looks grand. In a field this size and a likely price below 2/1, opportunity for us is elsewhere.

OUR PICK-

"They have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind." (Hosea 8:7)

Over the years of this letter, we have had good luck with also-rans in the Blue Grass Stakes, frequently the deepest of the late Derby preps. Gato Del Sol, Unbridled, and Sea Hero (all picked here) as well as Thunder Gulch each took the roses after being well behind the winner in the Blue Grass. Keeneland´s surface is notorious for inhibiting closers and favoring speed horses which is contradictory to the usual Derby environment. Secrets are not kept forever in the world of handicapping and consequently turf wisdom now dismisses Blue Grass winners (last Blue Grass-Derby winner was Strike the Gold, ´91) in favor of horses that "closed well" (e.g. DOLLAR BILL) in the race. This year, we think, that would be a mistake.

Our pick this year won in his first start last November at Hollywood Park. In his second start a month later; he lost the Grade I Hollywood Futurity by a short length to the more experienced POINT GIVEN. His 3-year-old debut was a victory in the Santa Catalina. Then it was on to New Orleans where he aggravated a cracked-heel problem and returned from one workout with his feet bleeding copiously. A skin fungus made him look more like some feral equine wanderer than a world-class thoroughbred. Still he managed a very respectable second in the Louisiana Derby while racing three wide the entire race. His trainer later acknowledged that the colt was but "80% fit" for the race. At about the same time, the trainer was having a recurrent dream in which our pick won the Triple Crown with Laffit Pincay riding. The only hitch was that the colt´s regular rider was Chris McCarron and what sane man would take him off of a Derby contender? At this point the story gets a bit murkier, but one thing is factual: McCarron surrendered the mount voluntarily, apparently to ride the favorite in a major turf race in California the same day as the Blue Grass. So whom did the trainer call? In your dreams and his- Laffit! In our pick´s last work before the Blue Grass, he worked so fast that there were whispers he has left his race there. Gossip was rampant about the feet, the fungus, and McCarron who "must know something." At race time, consensus held that Songandaprayer would seize the lead, but when he broke under restraint, the savvy Pincay put our pick on the front end and was never headed. Now came the naysayers: "He can thank Songandaprayer for that win," "Caught the golden Keeneland rail," "Benficiary of the speed bias." Blah, blah, blah. For the record, the colt was 5 lengths clear of the highest quality field of any Derby prep. We would also note that in the 9 other races run at Keeneland that day, only one other was won with a gate to wire lead.

Since the short trip to Louisville, a lot of other horses have posted faster workouts, and our pick has been a bit overlooked except for his medical problems. But this colt is dead fit and does not need the screws tightened any further. It´s MILLENIUM WIND!

THE PEDIGREE- M.W.´s sire, Cryptoclearance came from dead last to be fourth in the ´87 Derby. His previous Derby starters have been Crypto Star (5th, ´97 and Victory Gallop (2nd, ´98). Now the good news (and bad news): his dam, Bali Babe, is also the dam of Charismatic (1st, ´99). That´s great except that the odds of a mare producing 2 Derby winners are incalculable. Bali Babe is by Drone (broodmare sire of Grindstone 1st, ´96). He has the pedigree to get the distance, trust us.

THE TRAINER- David Hofmans is an accomplished veteran who spoiled Silver Charm´s Triple Crown by winning the Belmont in ´97 with Touch Gold. He also lined our pockets in the ´96 Breeders´ Cup Classic when his 20/1 chance Alphabet Soup nosed the great Cigar. First Derby but lots of experience in the Big Top.

THE JOCKEY- Readers of last year´s letter know the esteem we have for Laffit Pincay, Jr. We closed a profile of him with the lament that he had not had a mount in the Derby since ´94 and noted, "there is always next year." Well next year is here and at age 54, there is no other rider I would want if M.W. were in contention the last 1/16th of a mile. There has never and may never be a stronger finishing rider.

THE BET- Make a win bet on MILENNIUM WIND like you mean it. Make a win-place saver on EXPRESS TOUR. Hard to leave the favorite out of our business so we´ll box exactas and trifectas with those two and POINT GIVEN.

GOOD LUCK!