"There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns - that is to say, there are things that we now know we don´t know but there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don´t know, So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that´s basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns."
-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby
The banner headline across the New York Times on April 12, 1912 spoke tragedy of the highest order: "TITANTIC SINKS FOUR HOURS AFTER HITTING ICEBERG; 866 RESCUED BY CARPATHIA, PROBABLY 1250 PERISH; ISMAY SAFE; MRS. ASTOR MAYBE, NOTED NAMES MISSING."
An English coal miner, named Herb Longden, had sought work in Alberta, Canada two years prior and had now sent for his wife and children to join him. They were billeted on the doomed liner, but their loss would have been chronicled in fine print. A delayed train en route to Southampton, the embarking point of Titantic, spared the family including a boy of five. That boy would grow to a race-riding giant, of four feet ten inches, in his country of eventual adoption: America.
When Johnny Longden was called at age 96 in February of this year, he left one of the more envious and diverse records enshrined in the Racing Hall of Fame. Longden was the dominant race rider in the U.S. throughout a period in which the Depression Era 30´s and the Ozzie and Harriet 50´s book-ended the World War II 40´s.
His win total (6,032) was the record until surpassed in turn by Bill Shoemaker and Laffit Pincay. Aboard the gifted Count Fleet in 1943, Longden swept the Triple Crown (that Derby was our first but at age 3 days no bet was made). He rode well past his prime and did not hang up his tack until age 59 in 1966.
The diversity of his achievement is exemplified by the duplication, as a trainer, of his Hall of Fame performance as a jockey. Rare is the accomplished rider in possession of the talents necessary to train successfully. The ying and yang, left brain-right brain……… whatever. Many great trainers would fall off a carousel and many great riders have not a clue what is under the hood of their mounts. A polymath is a rara avis in this game, indeed a virtual ivory-billed woodpecker. Yet 26 years after Count Fleet´s Derby with Johnny Longden up, that rider now trainer led Majestic Prince into the winner´s circle at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. No one had hit that parlay before, and no one has hit it since. Largely overlooked is how close Longden came to annexing a Triple Crown as rider and trainer.
The unruly Count Fleet was such a cantankerous 2 year-old that John Hertz (of taxicabs and rental cars), the colt´s owner, had placed him on the cull list with a $4500 price tag. Only Longden´s intercession kept him in the string. The rider´s careful doting eventually brought the Count to hand after which he rolled through the Triple Crown like a Bradley through Saddam´s desert. His 30-length procession in the Belmont was the standard until Secretariat´s 33-length stroll in 1973.
The flashy Majestic Prince was a deserving favorite in the 1969 Derby. He was a then-record Keeneland yearling, knocked down for $250,000, two years prior. The colt was a flawless seven for seven going into the race.
Favorites held no more appeal to your editor in the days of doo-wop than in the days of hip-hop, Baez than Boyz2Men. Our fancy that year was a strapping son of the legendary Ribot named Arts and Letters. Owned by Paul Mellon´s Rockeby Stable, (whose Derby hopes would go unrequited for another quarter century until Sea Hero, picked here, stormed home in ´93). Arts and Letters finished second to Majestic Prince in the Derby (by a neck) and the Preakness (by a head) before delivering the upset in that year´s Belmont by a convincing 5 lengths (our equine loyalties run deep and a 23 year- old daughter of Arts and Letters, New Poems, recently foaled a fine filly, by ´00 pick More Than Ready, at Innisfree).
Owned by Canadian industrialist, Frank McMahon, Majestic Prince was a worn champion going into the Belmont and Longden did not want to run him. Ownership overruled and the Belmont proved to be his final start. A tendon injury retired the champ to the breeding shed where he excelled.
A childhood friend of Johnny Longden´s was one George Wolff who figures prominently in the glorious story of Seabiscuit, told in riveting fashion by Laura Hillenbrand in her bestseller by that name (soon, as they say, to be a major motion picture). A brief taste of the Alberta coalmines was enough to turn the boys to the comparatively better life of apprentice jockey, or bug boy.
The provenance of the term, bug boy, is in dispute. One version attributes it to the asterisk (or bug) that appears next to an apprentice rider´s name in the program indicating his weight allowance, typically 5 pounds. Another traces the term to the light weight allowed a beginning rider, no more than "a bug". Hillenbrand describes that life thusly: "On the track, bug boys were like any other commodity, to be leased, sold, swapped for horses, put up as collateral, and staked in card games. Though they earned practically nothing, they could be worth a lot, upwards of $15,000 for a good one. In 1928 Johnny Longden learned of his change of ownership early one morning in Winnipeg, where his trainer had put him up in a tent. While he slept, a stranger walked up and began shaking the tent violently. ´Get the hell out of here!´ barked the voice from outside. ´You´re working for me now and no one on my payroll sleeps late.´ "
Known as The Pumper for his riding style, Longden reached the sunset of his career just after the protean Ted Williams who was known as The Thumper (as well as The Kid and The Spendid Splinter). In 1960 Williams closed his baseball career with an exclamation point by nailing a home run in his last major league at bat. No similar end was forecast for Longden whose skills were noticeably diminished in parallel with the quality of his mounts. In fact the authorities at Santa Anita scheduled the ceremony honoring him for the Monday following his last scheduled mount on the previous Saturday.
The 60,792 who comprised the official paid attendance were only about 2/3 of the actual human count witnessing Longden´s riding farewell. In those good old days, patrons under age 21 were admitted free and not counted: a clear anachronism in these days of inflated live gate announcements.
Early in the card, the throng saw him win an allowance race in which he out-dueled the intense Bill Hartack to the wire. There were murmurs that maybe Hartack had not ridden his mount to the fullest in the narrow decision but none dared mention such a sacrilege aloud; especially within earshot of the volatile Hartack, a rider of unyielding repute. The fans had been served an unexpected treat in The Pumper´s penultimate call and the old man could now take his leave with total dignity. For everyone knew he had absolutely no chance in the big race that day, the eighth.
Longden´s last ride would be in the featured San Juan Capistrano Stakes. His partner, the gelding George Royal, was the defending champion of the race but his form had deteriorated greatly since the win a year prior. In fact the 8 year-old had finished way up the track in 4 consecutive stakes races preceding the San Juan. The rider had long since abandoned his position of prominence in the California jockey colony. To say that rider and horse were washed up would not have stretched the truth a bit. Consensus was that George figured as a 40-1 shot but Johnny´s fans bet him down to 6-1 out of sheer sentimentality.
What happened in that race would stretch credulity even in Hollywood. As the bugler blew Boots and Saddles for the call to the post, Longden and George made their way from paddock to track amidst a groundswell of applause. "Go get´m Grandpa," was a typical supportive yell from his fanciful supporters (for younger readers, you´da man had not entered the lexicon in the 60´s). Men tossed their hats (full-fledged fedoras) into the air amidst the rising tumult.
The Daily Racing Form called the race the "most moving, the most melodramatic in the history of California racing." Indeed the fans of Santa Anita recently voted the race the greatest in track history. And only the Miracle Mets of 1969 edged out the race for sports story of the decade. The margin was only a nose but George Royal and Longden had prevailed over the favorite Plaque and Bobby Ussery after being virtually inseparable the last quarter mile. Little noted was the fact that The Pumper had hand-ridden George the last 1/16 while Ussery was all boots and whip. The race had been an upset for the ages.
Since 1987 your editor has enjoyed the friendship of a Longden contemporary who is a Hall of Fame human being. However, the friend´s ventures in the world of thoroughbred racing, like most of ours, fall well short of Hall of Fame status. Michael J. Pascuma, Sr. is a floor broker on the American Stock Exchange whose career there dates to a time when that exchange was known as the curb market because, well, the lesser shares there-listed were literally traded from the sidewalk outside the New York Stock Exchange. Mike´s Zelig-like witness to history arguably exceeds that of any living American.
Mike was a runner on the exchange in 1929 at the occurrence of the historic crash. He witnessed the zero margin traders wiped out by the collapse. "When you got nothing you got nothing to lose," goes the Bob Dylan lyric and Mike escaped the crash unscathed. A short 15 years later he was part of the invading force at Utah Beach during Operation Overlord (a.k.a. the Normandy Invasion). Apart from suffering a case of shell shock, Mike was again a survivor.
As the fifth of nine children, Mike, Sr. aspired to be a prolific paterfamilias. But it was not until their tenth year of marriage that Mike and wife, Ada, were given their one and only offspring, Michael, Jr. The father and son toiled through tough times before prospering as partners in MJP Securities. At 94, Mike still darts from post to post at the exchange, waving buy and sell tickets, making Jordanesque cuts in his Nikes. Moving to a second level by escalator, he swings his legs through the air like a schoolboy, which, from the rear, his barely five foot stature closely resembles. Younger brother of a jockey (Tony) and older brother of a trainer (Warren), he competes tirelessly in our two greatest games. He is a weekend constant at whatever New York racing venue is in season. His enthusiasm for both pursuits as well as his pure goodness shine through at first meeting.
Mike escorts a visitor to the cloakroom of the exchange with an offer to share his lunch: a rite that is purchased daily at 6:00 a.m. from his favorite bakery. The apple turnover, which holds no apparent threat to his ninety- pound frame, is carefully divided in two and thus begins the victual ritual. His two-horse stable was recently reduced by fifty per cent when Apple Turnover Mike was claimed away from him. "Gotta run ´em where they have a shot." The claim left him with a sole competitor named for his deceased brother, and trained by 78 year-old kid brother Warren: Beat the Gate Tony. The colt has had several impressive wins but injuries have placed him in intermittent rehab programs where he now resides. Warren avers that Tony is the fastest horse he has ever trained but his tone soon reverts to sobriety as he expresses his desire to "keep him sound," the trainer´s lament. The colt´s namesake was an accomplished rider in the Longden era. Tony Pascuma rode in 3 Kentucky Derbies (1929-32-34) and won back-to-back New Orleans Handicaps in 1928 and 29 (Justice F. and Vermajo). Michael Pascuma, Jr. was an annual visitor to our office, thanking us for patronage of his firm, which his performance richly warranted. Unassuming but not a plain man, his thank you always included a case of wine at Christmas. One year an unusually good cabernet from the St. Francis Winery arrived. A compliment on the choice was quickly turned back. "I don´t know anything about wine. I saw the name and thought of the Prayer of St. Francis. That´s how I picked it." That prayer, drummed into every Catholic schoolboy, is a theological and poetic expansion of the golden rule. The prayer asks in part "Where there is hatred, let me sow love; where there is injury, pardon; where there is doubt, faith; where there is despair, hope; where there is darkness, light; where there is sadness, joy." Although we knew little of Mike, Jr.´s private life, his personal qualities suggested that following the prayer´s course would have come easy to him. As the boxing maven, Cus D´Amato, once remarked: "People born round don´t usually die square." To which we would add that decency usually begets decency. On September 11, 2001 Mike, Jr. was at a regularly scheduled breakfast with associates at the World Trade Center. His father was on duty at the American Stock Exchange next door when the attacks occurred. Several days passed before Michael, Sr. learned that his child was among the victims. Mike, Sr. had again survived an historic calamity but had lost his son.
Since homo first went erectus, he has tried to make some sense of his place in the cosmos. As Banquo implored Macbeth: "If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then to me, who neither beg nor fear your favors nor your hate." From Socrates to Doctor Phil, the answers have never come easy.
The Great Beyond, Heaven, Valhalla, the Elysian Fields? None of us on this side can know for sure. But what a comforting reverie it is to contemplate The Pumper and The Thumper trading tales of the Big Time with Uncle and Nephew Pascuma close at hand while Count Fleet, Majestic Prince, and Arts and Letters graze nearby (and knowing St. Francis, the horses would not be left out). St Francis´ prayer concludes: "For it is in giving that we receive, it is in pardoning that we are pardoned; and it is in dying that we are born to eternal life."
Mike, Sr. still has a lot of living to do in this world. Spring is here and that means new foals are arriving. He also has a couple of yearlings for which he harbors high hopes.
On April 21, a pair of Nike Shox running shoes arrived at the Amex in honor of his 94th birthday but the prized gift was on the workout tab that day at Belmont Park. Beat The Gate Tony worked 5/8 of a mile in 1:03. "We´re getting close," offers Mike. "If….we can just keep him sound."
LAST YEAR: Your editor has been an imbedded journalist in the racing game for dogs´ years. We were full of confident anticipation when we picked Saarland. Our pick suffered a condylar fracture in the race. Talk about a buzz kill. The colt has only recently returned with 2 wins in as many starts. Watch for him in the Breeders´ Cup Classic if….he stays sound.
THIS YEAR: Toots Shor was once pressed into leaving his fight-crowd watering hole to watch a performance of Hamlet. Midway the performance, he leaned to his companion and said sotto voce: "I gotta be the only guy in the jernt that don´t know how dis ting ends." We feel a little like Toots in that we have a favorite this year (Empire Maker) that even Hans Blix could find. His daddy (Unbridled) and his mama (Toussaud) were personal favorites of ours. His trainer is the white hot Bobby Frankel and his rider is the unequaled Jerry Bailey. So what will go wrong? Probably nothing. What could go wrong? Plenty. Thus begins our search for the chinks (not the SARS kind). So hang on dear readers. As Herbert Hoover famously promised in 1930: "Prosperity is just around the corner."
THE FIELD-
1- SUPAH BLITZ- If experience counts, this is your winner. Has 15 starts and Dad (Mecke) could route for sure. Would be a major, major surprise. Lone entry with a female rider (Rosemary Homeister, Jr). That is the right name folks; we just report. But don´t forget world poker champ, Amarillo Slim, who warned that "All trappers don´t wear fur hats."
2- BRANCUSI- Named for the Romanian sculptor, he is another son of Deputy Commander (Travers and Super Derby winner and second to Skip Away in the Breeders´ Cup Classic). Guess he is a chip off the old block (ouch!). Maternal grandsire (Alysheba) got the roses in ´87 over our pick Bet Twice. Showed promise at 2 and has hit the board in the San Felipe and Blue Grass. Same owner as ´95 winner Thunder Gulch, but trainer and rider will be humming the Marseillaise not My Old Kentucky Home. Don´t know of a first time frog angle. Last Derby work was on the grass at Keeneland (how French). We may not have seen his best yet. Allons l´enfant!
3- SIR CHEROKEE- Hard to get to a son of Cherokee Run at the Derby distance but he sure looked like a whirlwind closing in the Arkansas Derby. The other Cherokee Run (Kafwain) trained by Baffert has had second thoughts and will not go. Field in Hot Springs was suspect to be kind. Owner is World War II vet that settled in Guam and now owns it. Rookie Derby trainer-rider also a worry. Goodnight good knight.
4- ATSWHATIMTALKNBOUT- Mouthful of a name but a classic deep closer by the venerable A.P. Indy and out of a Red Ransom mare. They can´t write a race too long for this guy but we think he has been rushed to make this date (no starts at 2 is a major concern; 120 consecutive winners have raced at 2). Stephen Spielberg and friends coughed up $1 mill for a 10% bite after his impressive maiden win. Threw a clunker in the Santa Anita Derby but training well at Churchill. Trainer Ellis knows his biz but we are bothered by his walking around with blinkers in his hands sounding like the Prince of Denmark when asked if he plans to use them (last word he does). Notwhatweretalknbout.
5- PEACE RULES- Frankel´s "other horse," we loved him in the Louisiana Derby where he ruled at 9-1. An unbettable chalk in the Blue Grass, he was a punctual favorite. Pedigree buffs question his ability to get the Derby trip but he is inbred to Tom Rolfe (a great stamina influence) and he is from a Hold Your Peace mare. Figures to make all the early running and has the now rider in Edgar Prado. Don´t know if Peace will Rule but he will certainly contend. Don´t be fooled by that slow finishing quarter in the Blue Grass; this is a racehorse.
6- FUNNY CIDE- This is one gritty gelding. Made all the pace in the Louisiana Derby, lost the lead, and then came back late to be third. In the Wood, he dug deep to be only a ½ length back of Empire Maker though the latter was not under pressure. Son of Distorted Humor could be a bad joke for chalk players if he moves forward from his Wood effort.
7- OFFLEE WILD- Hmmmm. At first glance doesn´t seem to belong. Smoked ´em in the Holy Bull then bounced in the Fountain of Youth after which illness compromised training. Distant third in the Blue Grass but blew by the winner in the gallop out after the race. Son of Wild Again should love the distance and the price will be offlee right for sure.
8- BUDDY GIL- The blue-collar horse and a stone runner. Simply does not like horses passing him….an admirable trait. Has reeled off 3 straight at big prices including most recently the Santa Anita Derby. As a gelding he carries the Clyde Van Dusen curse (the last gelding to win this race in 1929). His sire Eastern Echo was a blueblood but was exiled to Maryland after flopping at stud in Kentucky. Trainer Mullins scorched the recently concluded Santa Anita meet and rider Gary Stevens knows the way home in Louisville (3 Derby wins). The Buddy System is working. But Buddy is twice cursed as he carries the curse of Damascus, his grandsire, as well. Damascus, a superb racehorse and sire, was the beaten favorite in the ´67 Derby. Since then no direct male descendant of his (and there have been plenty) has been able to win the Derby.
9- INDIAN EXPRESS- If Buddy is the blue-collar horse, this is the no collar horse. Utah-bred son of ´98 beaten fave, Indian Charlie, the colt was knocked down for a paltry 4 grand and sent to Panama where he demolished the field in 2 starts. Purchased by Phil Chess (remember Chess Records? Chuck Berry? Fats Domino?) and moved to Baffert´s barn, the injun lost the Santa Anita Derby by a dirty head in his second U.S. start. Lightly raced (4 lifetime starts), he is tough to figure but hard to throw out too. As Chuck would say: "C´est la vie say the old folks, you know you never can tell."
10- LONE STAR SKY- Last minute addition from barn of New Orleanian Tom Amoss sports a win over the course. Colt was credible in Louisiana Derby but disappointed in the Illinois Derby (especially since we bet him). This guy has a Derby with his name on it but it is in Dallas. Hate to dis a homie but this sky is the limit.
11-DOMESTIC DISPUTE- This son of Unbridled´s Song was on our watch list but failed to progress in the Baffert barn. After being declared out of Derby contention, the colt was sold to new owners who decided to enter. Doubt Baffert would sell a Derby winner two weeks before the race. Those empty slots always seem to fill.
12- EMPIRE MAKER- On any consideration of form, this colt stands clear at the head of the class. We fell in love when we saw him break his maiden at Belmont lat October. Trainer Bobby Frankel fell in love when he saw the colt at age two weeks. He trained his remarkable dam Toussaud who has produced Chester House , Honest Lady, and Chiselling: all Grade 1 winners. Dad is the sainted Unbridled...nuff said on pedigree. As he has matured, the colt has become a dominator and blinkers have improved his focus. Comes into the race in perfect form following a facile score in the Wood. Toussaud was an unruly gate horse and Empire is his mama´s son. Temperament is the only flaw. Awfully hard to oppose but oppose we must; rules are rules- no favorites! And as Mrs. Loman exclaimed in Death of a Salesman: "Attention must be paid!"
13- EYE OF THE TIGER- Late addition following his second to Scrimshaw in the Lexington. Lots of respect for trainer Hollendorfer but race seems out of reach. We won´t be baited by this tiger.
14- TEN CENTS A SHINE- Talented son of Devil His Due but has resisted all attempts at training by D. Wayne. Same owner as sidelined Badge of Silver who apparently is determined to have a starter in the Derby. As President Lincoln said of General McClellan: "He has a case of the slows."
15- OUTTA HERE- Last 2 starts at Delta Downs and Dubai. Huh? Outta here!
16- TEN MOST WANTED- Could end up one of the 2 most wanted by post time. Son of the hot young sire, Deputy Commander, this guy is trying to repeat the War Emblem parlay of Illinois and Kentucky. Credible connections in Dollase and Day but we are a little concerned that his popularity is based on a single race (Ill Derby) which notwithstanding last year has not been a reliable path to the roses. May still be at large come sundown on Saturday.
17- SCRIMSHAW- The name comes from the carvings made from whalebone. Same owner-trainer (Lewis-Lucas) as Charismatic (´99) which also won the Lexington in final Derby prep. Tries to become second son of Gulch (Thunder Gulch was first) to get the roses. Tough to throw out D. Wayne ever but colt will add an extra 3/16 of a mile to longest effort so far: no mean feat.
THIS YEAR´S PICK: MICHELIN STAR OR FRENCH TOAST?
Talleyrand said about the Bourbon Dynasty upon its restoration that "they have learned nothing, they have forgotten nothing." Hopefully that doesn´t apply here...it shouldn´t. We will be decanting bourbon not restoring it.
If you have a problem standing in the cashier´s line with Jacques Chirac and Dominique deVillepin, read no further. If this horse comes in, we will have wall-to-wall Sacre Bleu´s! But in this sport, we check our politics and six-shooters at the door (the favorite has an Arab owner and a Jewish trainer).
John Maynard Keynes once said that it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. The Keynester was obviously not a horseplayer since betting on the Derby does not provide the latitude afforded economic forecasts. We gotta get it right and sorting through Empire Maker´s sore foot, Scrimshaw´s throat surgery, or Offlee Wild´s bacterial infection is hard work. But we don´t want to suffer poor Dr. Watson´s fate of castigation by his mentor. Said Sherlock Holmes: "You see, Watson, but you do not observe." Well we may not be right but we´ve sure been observing. So here goes:
After finishing second in his first start at Saratoga last summer, his connections thought enough of him to go straight to the Grade I Champagne where his immaturity was apparent. A couple of third places in maiden races concluded his 2 year-old campaign. He blew away a maiden field at Santa Anita in February. He went from there to the principal prep for the Santa Anita Derby (the Grade II San Felipe). Sent off at 48-1, he looked like the winner a few jumps from home, but was edged out by a game Buddy Gil and a fast-closing Atswhatimtalknbout. His next race and final Derby prep was the Blue Grass where he appeared to be easily passed by Peace Rules and finished second. But our pick was hung wide and the winner had the notorious golden rail at Keeneland.
Our pick has stayed at the more quiet confines of Keeneland where he has been all but ignored by the racing punditry that is loath to stray far from the press tent at Churchill Downs. A muddy track forced his last work onto the grass but we really don´t think that matters. His trainer acknowledged that he had not asked his horse for everything yet, saying after the Blue Grass: "Now it is time to tighten zee screws." We think the trainer has molded a winner for Saturday. It´s BRANCUSI!
THE TRAINER- Patrick Biancone is a third-generation French trainer who we best remember as the trainer of the marvelous mare All Along. He has a couple of Breeders´ Cup seconds and in his few full-time years in the U.S. has quickly caught on to the American game.
THE JOCKEY- Tony Farina is also a Frenchman and at 24, Biancone´s house rider. He and only he gets on the back of the colt: gallop, work, or race. He has had a couple of beefs with the racing stewards here for rough riding but he is a clear talent and fearless.
THE BET- We expect odds of about 15-1 (though the morning line is twice that) on Brancusi so we will make a win-place play on our pick. We´ll box him with Empire Maker and Peace Rules to complete our exactas. For tri´s and superfectas we´ll take those 3 and add Offlee Wild who will be 35-1 or more. We´ll also make a small win-place-show bet and exotics on Offlee Wild, this year´s moonshot- longshot.
BON CHANCE MES AMIS!