"The world is made up of David´s. I am a Goliath. And nobody roots for Goliath."
-Wilt Chamberlain
Two exemplars of the sport of horse racing ended their intertwined lives three months apart in the year just past. Yet four and a half decades separated their births. Nicknamed "The Shoe" and "The Bid", Bill Shoemaker and Spectacular Bid cast dominating images in our game. But while any dispute about Shoemaker would debate whether he was The Greatest or just another resident of Mount Olympus, Spectacular Bid, for diverse reasons, is too often remembered as just another good horse whose Belmont came up short thereby denying him the Triple Crown title.
Writing about Shoemaker is a bit like undertaking another biography of Lincoln. What hasn´t been said? We won´t attempt a hagiography of the wee giant but will rather recount a few episodes that particularly touched your editor. As far as Spectacular Bid goes, we are here to set the record straight on a horse we opposed (pari-mutelly that is) at every opportunity with a single cashed ticket to show for our efforts.
With a request for indulgence from the race trackers in our readership and with deference to the general audience, we will recount some highlights of The Shoe´s career. The belief here is that no person in our universe of observation ever rode a racehorse more ably than Billie Lee Shoemaker.
He was a sub-two pound newborn, model year 1931, in Fabens Texas. The story goes that his grandmother supervised his long shot at survival that progressed in a shoebox atop the kitchen stove. Ultimately he grew stronger if not a lot longer. As a seventeen-year-old apprentice rider in California, he sat on horses as still as the Pieta. So effortless was his style that early on the stewards considered the charge of "failure to persevere" (stiffing to us). At 4´11" and 95 lbs., the Shoe was a half-pint among pint-sized competitors.
But the old saw about the size of the fight in the dog applied when the quick study finished his first full year of competition as the second leading rider in the U.S. The stewards could chill as they witnessed the birth of a star in the same year that Harry S. Truman was sworn in as the elected President of the U.S. of A.
THE RECORD: Bill (never liked being called Willie) Shoemaker performed exactly 40,350 race rides over forty-one years and won 8,833 (an amazing 21.9%). Included in that number were four Kentucky Derbies that should have been five (Swaps, Tomy Lee, Lucky Debonair, and Ferdinand), two Preakness Stakes (Candy Spots and Damascus), and five Belmont Stakes (Gallant Man, Sword Dancer, Jaipur, Damascus, and Avatar). His win total was the touchstone until surpassed by the indefatigable Laffit Pincay, who when he passed the legend, described Shoe simply as "my idol." If Pincay was the Archie Moore of race riding, Shoe was the Sugar Ray Robinson. Pincay´s powerful physique seemed at times to muscle a horse to his bidding. Shoe´s deft touch was a gentle persuasion. Apart from two incidents in 1968 and 1969 (broken leg in the first; broken pelvis and ruptured bladder in the second), his career was remarkably free of major injury. To a generation that still knows Paris Hilton as a French hotel, he was simply the best.
And what was the shoulda been fifth Derby win? In 1957 the Derby field was arguably the strongest ever (Bold Ruler and Round Table were third and fourth respectively). Shoe appeared to have the race won astride the aptly named Gallant Man when he inexplicably misjudged the finish line and briefly ceased riding inside the 1/16th pole ceding the race to Iron Liege. Characteristically Shoe made no excuses but the great Eddie Arcaro did. Arcaro, who was partnering the favored Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat), averred that Churchill Downs moved the finish line a sixteenth of a mile further down-stretch that year, before the custom of striping the rail at the finish was adopted. The chart of the race affixed a mark on Shoe in racing history: "Gallant Man reached the lead between calls and was going stoutly when his rider misjudged the finish and he could not overtake Iron Liege when back in stride." The margin was a nose; As Kurt Vonnegut would say: "And so it goes."
MEMORY #1: In 1976 we were in love with a brilliant three-year-old named Honest Pleasure. Beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby, the younger Honest Pleasure was a long shot against older horses in the Marlboro Cup at Belmont Park (thenadays it was acceptable to "reach for a Lucky instead of a sweet" or "walk a mile for a Camel"). Aboard the great Forego carrying an impost of 137 lbs., a weight unknown in today´s game, Shoe and the grand gelding were conceding 18 lbs. to Angel Cordero and the three-year old. If a racing secretary assigned 137 lbs to a horse today, he would be committed. Belmont was awash in mud and a downpour continued throughout the day. Into the stretch, Honest Pleasure had led all the way and was running straight and strong. Forego was ten lengths back, his rider´s silks unidentifiable. Then the Shoe went to work, the pair took off, and in the last jump, Forego nosed the equally determined Honest Pleasure. The picture of Shoe and Forego pulling up is unforgettable. The gelding was dead lame and strode like Gunsmoke´s Chester into the Winner´s Circle. But tougher than a Shoney´s t-bone, he returned for one more year to race at seven.
MEMORY #2: The inaugural running of the Arlington Million in 1981 attracted a field of international turf stars. John Henry and the Shoe enjoyed well- deserved favoritism. Searching for price, we settled on a 30/1 chance with Irish connections: The Bart with Eddie Delahoussaye up. The Bart cleared the field at the sixteenth pole and John Henry appeared beaten, some eight lengths in arrears, when he let-loose with that awkward motion that looked like one of those West Texas oilfield nodding donkeys. Shoe and Eddie hit the wire together but the Bart appeared to have won the head-bob. In fact the late Pete Axthelm declared it so to a national audience. Unfortunately for The Bart and your editor, Shoe had once again broken a long shot´s heart with a miracle finish.
MEMORY #3: The 1986 Kentucky Derby was, in track vernacular, a wide-open betting affair with no fewer that five colts at single-digit odds. The favorite, Snow Chief was a tepid 2/1 and, in our view, held no appetite for a mile and a quarter. A close, since deceased friend called mid-week to relate a conversation he had in unsought privacy at the barn of the great Charlie Whittingham with himself and Shoe. Two Hall of Famers were being ignored by the backstretch mob in mid-week before the Derby. Ole Charlie confided that his third place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby just might fare a bit better with the added 1/8 of a mile. A nodding Shoe then confided that he and Charlie were also betting that way. We were leaning to the son of Nijinsky II anyhow and this closed the matter: Ferdinand would be our pick. Ferdinand drew the one hole, an awful spot, especially for a colt with no early speed. He was sent off at odds of 16/1 and in the early going looked like an underlay at the price. Bumped twice into the rail before the first turn, Shoe had no choice but to take back, save ground, and hope that a hole would eventuate in the large field before the hour was too late. Midway the race, Ferdinand was the back marker in the seventeen horse field and the only time he was shown on the screen was in the pan shot three-quarters of a mile from home. There was Shoe, hopelessly behind, distinguished only by the pink pom-pom atop the sky-blue hat emblematic of the silks´ colors of Mrs. Howard (Superior Oil) Keck. At precisely this moment, the Keck pair began slowly but steadily passing the field. Their progress was invisible to the television audience until a moment that lives to this day in the mind´s eye of your editor. After retreating from the pan shot, the camera focused on the leaders turning for home. The eyes searched for Shoe and his mount to no avail and the heart sank. A phalanx of colts was moving into the far turn…no Ferdinand. Suddenly a chestnut colt topped by a pink pom-pom barged into the screen. Slack reins in the hands of the Shoe with the proverbial handful of horse waited with feline patience for the moment to pounce. Shoe had taken a ground saving trip, committing to the rail throughout, but now there was no way through. He swung a bit wider outside Rampage and Pat Day. From the fence, a tiring Snow Chief held grimly to a disintegrating lead. Fanned outside of him were Bold Arrangement, Broad Brush, and Badger Land. Bold Arrangement appeared to take the fore briefly but veered out slightly doing so. Shoe and Day saw the opening simultaneously but Shoe pushed the button first. Ferdinand responded with a sudden turn of foot and burst through the now disappearing hole to the rail. Announcer Mike Battaglia had missed it all and not until our guys were a length clear did he interrupt his cadenced call with an exclamatory "And here comes Ferdinand!" The Sunshine Boys from the Golden State, Charlie and Shoe, had put one over on the Julep-heads.
MEMORY #4: By 1989, the Shoe was in the gloaming of his brilliant career. Favored mounts were no longer his and a small paunch had emerged on his 58 year-old frame. He embarked on a yearlong going away tour that included the New Orleans Fair Grounds. His day there included a ride in a race where your editor had an entry. In the old, enclosed paddock, the Shoe waited for his mount and its connections alone. We introduced ourselves and fawned as any fan might do. After a few words, the Shoe offered: "Tell me about your horse." Nothing could have melted the heart of an admirer more. After the race, that neither of us won, Shoe came up with that famed crooked smile and said: "You might want to try blinkers on that colt next time. He can run some." Who knows how many times he delivered those lines that year? But that was definitely one of those "for everything else you need MasterCard" moments.
THE BID: In 1977 President Carter was telling us all to turn down our thermostats and don sweaters to ward off the cold. At that fall´s Keeneland Yearling Sale, a grey colt by Bold Bidder from the Promised Land mare Spectacular went to Harry Meyerhoff for the ho-hum sum of $37,000. The colt possessed a pedigree and conformation that were passable if not particularly commercial, although Bold Bidder had sired 1974 Belmont winner, Cannonade. Whatever secrets Bid´s training progress held became history when, the following spring, his debut at Pimlico fell 2/5 of a second short of the track record for the 5 ½ furlong distance. In his next start, he equaled the track record. With the approaching winter, the colt, now named Spectacular Bid, had won 5 stakes races and was conferred with the 2 year-old championship by near unanimous decree. The racing cognoscenti were now beginning to compare him to Seattle Slew and Affirmed, Triple Crown Champs in the previous two years respectively.
The owner, Harry Meyerhoff, was not a particularly endearing fellow and Grover "Bud" Delp, the bombastic trainer, was accomplished but only within his native Maryland confines. Neither exhibited a high degree of self-effacement for themselves or their charge. "Only an act of God can stop us from winning the Triple Crown. This is the best racehorse ever to look through a bridle" was Delp´s modest assessment of Spectacular Bid. Their inchoate house rider, Ronnie Franklin, was a raw talent but without prior big race experience.
When the 3 year-old campaigns began for the 1979 Kentucky Derby, the gangly gray´s class hovered over every other aspirant; only 3 of which were even mentionable: General Assembly (a son of Secretariat and the hands-down pedigree winner), the overachieving California-bred, Flying Paster, and Arkansas Derby winner, Golden Act. But their connections had to reel when Bid ran the Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby, Flamingo, and Blue Grass in awesome succession. The Florida Derby was particularly notable as Franklin gave possibly the worst winning ride in racing history. He checked 4 times during the race before leaving his hapless rivals (including General Assembly) 4 ½ lengths in his wake.
On Derby Day, Spectacular Bid ran like the odds-on choice that he was breezing home by 2 ¾ lengths over General Assembly. The win marked the third consecutive year the prior year champion 2 year-old had won the Derby. None has done so since. Variant theories abound on why this is so; our own is that the long string of failed juvenile champions is an epiphenomenon born of the long term effect of breeding for precocity and the introduction of overmedicated racing stock into the thoroughbred gene pool.
In the Preakness, the Derby champ widened his winning margin to 5 ½ lengths in a time faster than Affirmed and Seattle Slew. In fact his time was even faster than Secretariat´s official time in that race, if not his actual time (that´s a story for another day).
On the morning of the Belmont, according to his trainer, Bid stepped on a safety pin but showing no signs of lameness, was allowed to run. Delp made the mistake of informing his frazzled rider, Ronnie Franklin, of the episode. Franklin proceeded to engage Angel Cordero in a fistfight in the jock´s room and later frantically gunned the colt to an early lead in the race´s marathon distance. Patiently biding his time mid-pack was the bred to route, Coastal. The later blew by Bid on the far turn. We cashed on Coastal, which led Golden Act and Spectacular Bid across the finish line in that order. Ronnie Franklin had ridden the colt for the last time.
The injury forced Bid to the sidelines for a couple of months during which his rivals carved up the summer´s 3 year-old fixtures. Late in August, he returned with a track record-breaking, 17- length victory in an allowance warm-up at Delaware Park. His partner that day and every race thereafter was Bill Shoemaker.
After dusting General Assembly and Coastal in the Marlboro Cup, the king of that year´s three-year-olds began preparation for what was dubbed the race of the century against the mighty Affirmed: the 1979 Jockey Club Gold Cup. At this point in the calendar, the weight for age allowance usually still favors the elders and this year was no exception. No fewer than four times during the race did the younger Spectacular Bid challenge the august Affirmed; each was rebuffed. If not the race of the century, it was certainly a notable one, if not for any other reason than it was the last that Spectacular Bid would lose.
During a four-year-old campaign that went from coast to coast and numerous venues in between, Bid and Shoe ran the table in all nine attempts marking the landscape with shattered track records (including an American record for a mile and a quarter of 1:57 4/5) and numbed foes. This was accomplished under staggering imposts that frequently exceeded 130 lbs. Spectacular Bid´s career concluded with the Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park in deserving fashion. The only two entrants (Temperance Hill and Dr. Patches) scratched on race day and the great gray was granted a walkover. Shoe´s career lasted another ten years and concluded with his 40,352nd ride on February 3, 1990 finishing fourth on the forgettable Patchy Groundfog.
Spectacular Bid was syndicated for a then record $22 million and launched his career at stud at the venerable Claiborne Farm with the highest of expectations. The Shoe, in turn, launched his second career as a trainer with a similar outlook the day after his last ride.
Despite being bred to the proverbial "Blue Hen" mares, the Bid´s produce exhibited few of the sire´s talents and his stud fee plummeted resulting in his eventual banishment to the then uncompetitive, pre-Funny Cide, market of New York State.
His rider´s training career commenced with a flourish attracting an enviable collection of owners and horses. A year later, Shoe was driving home in his Ford Bronco after a round of golf and a few locker room beers. Attempting a call home on his cell phone, he lost control of the vehicle that then rolled down a steep embankment. The tragic result was irreversible paralysis from the neck down. While Shoe would continue as a trainer for most of his remaining years aided by his loyal assistant, Paddy Gallagher, he would do so within the confines of a wheelchair and with the aid of a respirator. On your editor´s annual August in Del Mar, many were the days we sighted the Shoe in the paddock sporting that irrepressible crooked smile against all odds. On each occasion, we were unable not to fixate on his apparent optimism that we viewed through a lens made opaque by spontaneous moisture.
In his latter years, the mortal coil that framed that crooked smile grew weaker but never the smile. Sadly, the training statistics weakened in parallel with his physical decline. On November 3, 1997 he retired from training with a respectable 90 wins from 713 starts but in sharp contrast to his statistics in the saddle. He remained a regular visitor to the major tracks on the California circuit until his passing in his sleep on October 12, 2003. Shoe in typical modesty requested a simple cremation with no funeral service. That did not stop the innumerable memorials at the tracks his talent graced.
By Shoe´s own measure, the greatest horse he ever rode preceded him in death in June of the same year. To call the Bid a flop at stud would be too harsh a judgment (to date his progeny have registered over $20 million in purse money). Few significant runners "out-sire themselves" in the manner of Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat, or Northern Dancer. Certainly Secretariat did not. In the jargon of the trade, the Bid was not exceptionally strong in paper (pedigree) and his confirmation was far from flawless. Like his partner, Bill Shoemaker his legacy lies between gate and wire. The Bid won thirteen Grade I stakes (and ten lesser ones) at ten different tracks. On the five occasions his impost was 130 lbs or more, he was perfect. His nine track records stretched from 5 ½ furlongs to 1¼ mile. The game may never see numbers like that again. We can rightly celebrate the shared apotheosis of that partnership. Shoe and Bid, this Bud´s for you.
MISSION STATEMENT (Sort of)-
"Rien" (nothing) was the famous diary entry of Louis XVI on Bastille Day. We could have substituted Derby for Bastille and entered the same. Since inception our approach has been to try to find a horse in the Derby whose chances though widely perceived as improbable were at least plausible.
The theologian Soren Kierkegaard once said "The specific character of despair is precisely this: it is unaware of being despair." Well the Great Dane never confronted the challenge of handicapping the Kentucky Derby. The last two years have enveloped your editor in a despair equipped with a total awareness that luck is such a big part of winning a Kentucky Derby that is often more like a Roller Derby. Remembering G.K. Chesterton´s warning that "some things are too big to be seen," we are intensely focused on this year´s renewal like Lyncaeus, the most keen-eyed of the Argonauts. Ben Franklin writing in Poor Richard´s Almanac observed: "Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other." Armed with a degree from Dr. Franklin´s Academy, we crawl out of our spider-hole intent on nothing less than victory. Our street cred is at stake.
In reassessing our methodology we are reminded of the words spoken by that great hero of the west, "Shane" when asked why he wore his gun high on his hip: "Son, I have found my method is as good as any and better than most." We still believe that about our method: trip handicapping not speed handicapping was, is, and will always be our game.
In the film classic, "One Flew Over the Cuckoo´s Nest," Randle Patrick McMurphy (Jack Nicholson) is organizing a basketball team from the residents of a mental hospital. One of his potential players is a towering Native-American who is mute and knows nothing of the game. He coaches him thusly: "Just put the ball in the hole, Chief." Well, that´s what we aim to do: just put the ball in the hole.
THIS YEAR´S DERBY:
We feel a little like Cisco, the head of the Oakland Chapter of that fraternal order known as the Hell´s Angels who remarked: "When we do good no one remembers. When we do bad no one forgets." To be sure we have been afflicted with a bit of what the rapper, Chuck D, refers to as "dumbassification."
The current renewal is without a clear-cut favorite as the cast is strewn with colts that have taken turns beating each other as well as others with a single impressive score mixed with unimpressive outings. The fashionable training regime du jour is the long pre-Derby layoff of which we are most suspect. The hardened competitor usually prevails over the fresh horse but in this game rules are made to be broken and we are without prejudice in appraising this year´s bunch.
ACTION THIS DAY- Looked to be the one to break the two-tear-old champ jinx after his sweeping victory in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Apart from a big middle move in his three-year-old debut before hanging in the stretch, he has produced action on no days. Bred to run until sunset (by Kris S. out of a Trempolino mare), his Hall of Fame trainer, Dick Mandella, attributes his poor showings to a now-cured back ailment. Mandella notched four wins (Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Turf, and Classic) at ´03 Breeders Cup and his comments should not be ignored. The price will be square but problematic whether he can gain traction this day.
BIRDSTONE- Owned by the insufferable Mary Lou Whitney, widow of C.V. "Sonny" Whitney. Son of ´96 Derby winner Grindstone (nosed our pick, Cavonnier, and it still hurts) and brother of Oaks champ Birdtown looked like one of the chosen few before blowing the Spiral Stakes as heavy chalk on a sealed track. That was forgivable but then scratched from the Blue Grass due to a bad blood count. Reportedly training up a storm and trainer Zito (two Derby wins) loves him. Not out of the question but demand a big price if you think this Bird is the Word.
BORREGO- Named for the desert resort town in Southern California, we bet him in the Louisiana Derby (2nd) and again in the Arkansas Derby (2nd). Devoid of speed but definitely a stayer. Expect he will pass tiring horses but doesn´t seem to have that classic turn of foot to get it all. Possible back end of the tri or superfecta seems about the best shot for this guy.
CASTLEDALE- Son of Arc winner Peintre Celebre upset in the Santa Anita Derby and has pedigree to run as long as any. The Irish import has only one win on the dirt but it was a stunner. Will probably be the longest price Santa Anita Derby winner in memory and will definitely be picking up the pieces down the lane. Garbage collector or Derby Champ? Tough call.
FRIENDS LAKE- Tries to be second NY-bred in as many years to wear the roses. Son of A.P. Indy sports a winner´s pedigree but has not raced since his eye-opening score in March in the Florida Derby. Trainer-Jock combo of Kimmel and Migliore are underrated pair who possess the necessary skills, but question the long layoff between starts which could make this race our Friend´s wake.
IMPERIALISM- Possible hunch anti-W play if you are so inclined. Will set new youngest trainer record for the classic as 21 year-old Kristin Mulhall (daughter of former racing manager for late Prince Ahmed, Point Given-War Emblem, Salmen´s Thoroughbred Corp.). No doubt he is genuine but think a little too much being made of his being blocked in the S.A. Derby. Don´t think he was going to finish any closer than the eventual third spot. Sire was a quality sprinter and just don´t see mile and ¼ in this pedigree.
LIMEHOUSE- A striking example of a colt who could win a lot of dough if he skipped the Triple Crown. Only Limehouse we know is a section of London originally housing that city´s Chinatown. What that has to do with a son of Grand Slam and Dixieland Blues is a mystery. Did win a 2 year-old stakes on Derby Day last year but would need a major step up to have even a Chinaman´s chance here.
LION HEART- A genuine racehorse and runs to his name but has been nailed twice at the wire in both his Derby preps (San Rafael and Blue Grass) at distances shorter than this one. King of the Jungle, maybe…but no crown in Louisville it says here.
MASTER DAVID- Kentucky-bred but spent his early 2 year-old career in England before joining another master, Bobby Frankel. Has only one 3 year-old win (Sham Stakes at Santa Anita) but probably thought he won the Wood Memorial as he out-gamed Eddington from the rail, only to have Tapit pass them both from the outside in the last jump. Frankel-Solis combo is probably the best trainer-rider pair to have never won a Derby.
MINISTER ERIC- The apparent Mandella second-stringer that completed the exacta in last year´s Breeders´ Cup Juvenile has taken the low road to the Derby knowing his spot was safe due to the wad he earned in that race. Interesting strategy: a sprint on the grass (2nd) and an allowance mile and 1/16 (2nd) at Santa Anita followed by an easy allowance score at Keeneland. This son of Old Trieste out of a Deputy Minister mare will have the rare combo of freshness and bottom. The plot thickens as Pat Day, a victim of musical chairs, takes the ride. Possible 30/1 (make that 20/1 due to St. Patrick) is a must in your exotics- at least. (n.b. your editor bet him in the future pool)
POLLARD´S VISION- Remember Seabiscuit´s one-eyed jockey, Red Pollard? This guy shares Red´s optical handicap and thus his name. Colt was a game third in the Louisiana Derby and then galloped in the Illinois Derby while posting a huge wire-to-wire figure much in the style of ´02 winner War Emblem. Another with distance limitations in his pedigree that often do not demonstrate themselves until the first Saturday in May. Certainly belongs here but just can´t see a win (but then neither can he).
PRO PRADO- Spent the winter chasing Smarty Jones around the Oaklawn Park oval. Looks like he will relish the distance but can´t see roses on the Pro although he may finally catch old Smarty.
QUINTON´S GOLD RUSH- His S.A. Derby fourth (we bet him) was a lot better than it looked and his Lexington win (we didn´t bet him) was not as good as it looked. Has the pedigree to get the trip but a bet seems like fool´s gold.
READ THE FOOTNOTES- Son of the aptly named Smoke Glacken, Like Dad he loves the front-end but failed as chalk in the Florida Derby. Connections blamed a displaced palate (Alysheba ´87 winner had one in his final prep). As much as we admire his grit, if he were mine I´d skip the Derby and point to the shorter Preakness. A breathing problem is a heavy burden for a Derby hopeful. The footnotes to the Derby chart may well say this guy took his last gasp at the eighth pole.
SMARTY JONES- The likely morning line favorite off of his domination of the three-year-old stakes at Oaklawn especially the Arkansas Derby. Has low-profile connections, suspected (but unproven) distance limitations, and has been demeaned as a lowly Pennsylvania-bred. The latter charge is a canard as his sire Elusive Quality is a very hot young sire though a miler not a router. Gets his name from the owner´s mother´s nickname. Theft from the front-end will be his strategy but doubt he can get separation from the likes of Read the Footnotes and Lion Heart. Smarty likely to be tardy at he finish.
SONG OF THE SWORD- Was a horse on the bubble until a few defections opened a slot. As Sam Goldwyn once said on another subject: "Two words. Im Possible."
ST. AVERIL- A month ago we thought this guy might be our pick, but bombed in the S.A. Derby. Son of St. Ballado (sire of Captain Bodgit who just missed nailing Silver Charm) and out of a Lord Avie mare certainly presents no pedigree problem. But missed training and last minute decision to go to Derby leads us to believe that connections may be singing in the rain. Averil showers will not bring May flowers.
TAPIT- Owned by the Estate of Verne (Donut King) Winchell. Could take it off of impressive Wood Memorial win. Trained by the English Mad Scientist, Michael Dickinson, who after winning the biggest fixtures over jumps in his native land, set his sights on the American flat racing game. He has replicated the traditional European training gallops with his own rural training spa in Maryland equipped with a proprietary synthetic surface called Tapeta (Latin for carpet). Only four lifetime starts give us pause but pedigree (Pulpit out of an Unbridled mare) could overcome.
THE CLIFF´S EDGE- Named for famed handicapper, Cliff Guilliams, this guy was awesome running down Lion Heart over speed-favoring Keeneland course in the Blue Grass. Despite closing style we are a little suspect of pedigree (Gulch out of a Danzig mare). Gulch did sire Thunder Gulch, ´95 winner, but that was very atypical and that one was from a Storm Bird mare. Trainer Zito (2 Derby wins) will draw money and expect he will be an underlay. Last Blue Grass winner to convert Derby was also a Zito trainee, Strike the Gold, but that was over a decade ago. Would love to see Cajun-rider Sellers with a Derby win but we will be Cliff sellers not Cliff dwellers.
WIMBLEDON- Served notice that he would be Baffert´s ace when he smashed the field in the Louisiana Derby. But when he tried to regain his western grip in the Santa Anita Derby, he double faulted when forced to press the pace by his inexperienced (former) rider. He emerges from Death Volley (ouch!) with no less than Jerry Bailey in the irons for the Big Dance. If he regains his New Orleans form, it could be game, set, and match.
OUR CHOICE:
W.C. Fields once told a mark who inquired whether his pea and shell scam was a game of chance "Not the way I play it." We wish we had old Dunkenfield´s confidence but luck overwhelms in the Kentucky Derby. As the old Roman, Publilius Syrus, warned: "It is a very bad thing to become accustomed to good luck." Herewith is this year´s stab.
After sorting through the array of speed and closers, we have decided to rest on a colt with the tactical speed to lay close and hopefully prevail whether the pace is torrid or horrid. Our trainer and jockey bring Derby experience (2 seconds for the conditioner and 2 seconds and a third for the rider) and lots of big time wins. The colt´s sire is as hot as any although not likely to produce a mile and ¼ type. That´s mom´s job who is a daughter of one of the great stamina influences in the thoroughbred canon (Sadler´s Wells). The following names appear in the first 4 generations of our selection´s pedigree: Affirmed, Graustark, Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, and Secretariat.
Our pick broke his maiden in his third try in England before coming to America and finishing 2nd to Read the Footnotes in last fall´s Remsen Stakes. He won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita at a mile and 1/8 before a very tough beat to Tapit in the Wood Memorial. In that race, turning for home, Tom Durkin said he was "behind a wall of horses." Somehow he found an opening on the rail, slipped through, and looked a winner after out-gaming the highly regarded Eddington (A son of Unbridled that every wise-guy was hoping to bet in the Derby but who will be excluded because of inadequate winnings. Watch for him in the Belmont.) Sadly for our guy, Tapit was rolling on the outside and cruised by the aforementioned pair for a half-length win. How easy was Tapit´s win? About as easy as Empire Maker´s win over Funny Cide last year in the same race. The figure guys all rated the Wood as the slowest of the late Derby preps which suits us fine.
With all those speed figure Goliaths lining up for this year´s Derby, who better to do the deed than
MASTER DAVID!
THE BET: We expect the MASTER to be double digits so we will bet him to win and place. We love MINISTER ERIC as well and almost picked him but at over 20/1 will make him our longshot saver. Bet him across the board. We will put these two in exactas and tri´s with TAPIT and CASTLEDALE. No man can serve two masters says the Good Book, but no reason why you can´t serve a MASTER and a MINISTER. And when that keg of Bud arrives, just TAPIT.