Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 2005 - 26th Edition

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
´Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!´ he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Thus opened Alfred, Lord Tennyson´s poetic tribute to the suicidal charge of a British light cavalry unit in the Crimean War. Czar Nicholas I (his motto was "submit and obey") stretched the Russian Empire a bit too far with an invasion of Turkey thereby inviting the wrath not only of the Turks but the British and French as well. The year was 1854.

In America, the issue of slavery stressed the republic, not to mention the Republicans who founded their abolitionist party that same year. The occupant of the White House was one Franklin Pierce.

Remembering anything about the presidency of Franklin Pierce (1853-57) is daunting for any but the most assiduous scholars of American history. Though a native of the abolitionist stronghold of New Hampshire, Pierce was unfairly characterized as being soft on slavery owing to his acquiescence in the Kansas-Nebraska Act. That legislation granted local option on the subject to those new territories.

His term as the penultimate ante-bellum chief executive lies in an obscurity shared by the other seven occupants of the White House between those two titans: Jackson and Lincoln. That forgettable pantheon in chronological order goes: Van Buren, Harrison, Tyler, Polk, Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce, and Buchanan.

They deserve better because, thanks to a foundation laid by Old Hickory and Jacksonian Democracy, these three Whigs and four Democrats presided over an internet-like growth in the sport of horse racing.

Prior to Jackson´s intervention, horse racing in America had followed the European model of gentlemen racing their horses against one another in mostly private environs. Jackson became a wealthy man breeding, selling, and racing horses (Jackson´s Truxton was the Secretariat of his day) and his expertise on matters equine was widely known before his military and political careers ascended.

When he built a race track at Clover Bottom near his famous Hermitage, he provided for and welcomed spectators without regard to social class. Before long the bookmakers arrived and the sport was changed forever.

The mid-nineteenth century was marked by great technological change and held the earliest reference to those lost "good old days." In John Steele Gordon´s excellent historical American narrative, "Empire of Wealth," the author quotes retired New York City Mayor Hone: "This world is going too fast. Railroads and steamers race against time. Oh for the good old days of heavy post coaches and speed at the rate of six miles an hour." Not only were people and goods moving faster but thanks to the telegraph (1844), so was information.

The results of the legendary north-south match race between American Eclipse and Sir Henry held on Long Island in 1823 had traveled by semaphore to the shocked supporters of Henry in the south.

The telegraph produced a nineteenth century version of real time results and possibly the first blogger: William T. Porter. His Spirit of the Times recounted every significant event of the turf along with reviews of cultural events and even fiction.

Though wild and wooly is most used as a description of America´s westward growth, the phrase is equally apt for horse racing in the ante-bellum period. Rules were few and loosely enforced. So unruly were the crowds that it was not uncommon for patrons to be driven from the track by the competitors charging down the stretch. So unreliable were the promoters of many racing meets that they were required to literally hang the purse money from the winning post before the owners would send their charges trackward.

The boosters of horse racing were largely aligned politically with the backers of the free flow of alcohol and the preservation of slavery (they had two right). Opposite laid the abolitionists, prohibitionists, and anti-gambling forces. Not surprisingly this drove the sport´s growth in a southerly course. And nowhere was that growth more manifest than in New Orleans.

As many as seven different courses hosted race meetings in the Crescent City, at the time, America´s third largest. But none matched the grace and opulence of The Metairie. Then the course lay in a country setting; today the site is a mammoth cemetery in the city´s most fashionable suburb carrying the same name.

The lawless sport described hitherto was largely the craft of a Protestant Scots-Irish stock that subscribed to Ralph Waldo Emerson´s anti-Royalist, anti-European polemics. In New Orleans, racing bloomed in a Catholic, largely French and less-so Spanish, culture. The result was a well-ordered venue where elite gentlemen met in comfort with their ladies at their sides. A code of behavior for competitor and spectator alike was observed with the religiosity of a Sunday Mass.

Into this setting appeared one of the greatest gamesmen in the book of horse racing and with him a horse that would excite the senses of the country with a series of exploits at The Metairie that, to this day, seem surreal. The gamesman was Richard Ten Broeck; the horse was Lexington.

The racing jones took a hold of Ten Broeck at age 11 when his father took him to the historic match race between American Eclipse and Sir Henry on Long Island in 1823. After dropping out of West Point, he came under the tuition of Colonel William Ransom Johnson.

The colonel, part Vince McMahon, part Donald Trump, was known immodestly but accurately as the "Napoleon of the Turf." In fact it was he that promoted the Eclipse-Henry contest, a race he was notably absent from due to the after effects of excess libation on the eve of the event.

Johnson bought, sold, raced and bet horses from New York to New Orleans serving as a Johnny Appleseed for the adolescent sport. His junior partner, Ten Broeck, in no time a wisened sort, was sought out to run the Bingaman Course on the West Bank of New Orleans. His success there led, in 1851, to his forming a joint stock company, the Metairie Association to acquire the Metairie Course.

Ten Brock´s signature was placed upon the already 13 year-old course at once. The track was improved, a new grandstand built, and purses raised dramatically. The result was an elevation of The Metairie to the pinnacle of American racing. The Jacksonian model of a sport for everyman was chucked. The spring and fall meetings held race days during the week for the express purpose of discouraging the working class from attendance. An additional barrier was the $1 admission charge that was about a day´s wage for the typical laborer at the time. For those further down the economic rung, the promoter offered weekend cockfights, pugilists, and even a bull and bear fight (the bull won, thereby sealing the fate of short sellers for the next century and a half).

In 1853 during a Kentucky visit, Ten Broeck witnessed a race in which a horse named Darley made a distinct visual impression in winning a minor race. He bought the horse on the spot and renamed him Lexington (binomial names were common with changes in ownership and severely complicated the record book). The encounter would prove as historic as a contemporaneous meeting between Phineas T. Barnum and Tom Thumb.

In choosing his name, Ten Broeck had already undertaken his plan to make Lexington America´s horse. Like any modern day boxing manager, Ten Broeck picked spots for his charge that built a laudable resume without any threat of loss. In the parlance of the sweet science, he lived in Palookaville.

Races run in a single heat were called dashes irrespective of the distance. Most races of consequence were run in multiple heats with the winner being the first to win two heats. Typically the heats were run in one to three mile series with no more than a thirty minute blow between heats (to put this in present day context, the rarely run distance of a single mile and a half test is given marathon stature). After Lexington´s second score in Kentucky, he was shipped to New Orleans where he underwent a winter of secret training in preparation for the spring meeting at The Metairie.

Almost immediately Ten Broeck began promotion of a contest pitting interstate rivals in what he christened The Great State Post Stake. The April 1, 1854 event matched entries from Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Kentucky. The conditions dictated the winner to be the first to win two heats at grueling four-mile intervals. A racing secretary proposing such a contest today would incur the wrath of PETA for the modern thoroughbred would be 20/1 to survive its like. Indeed the English and Irish had all but abandoned heat racing by this time and middle distance dashes became the norm. Americans clung to the view that "bottom" (stamina) was the true mark of the breed and did not make the change until the conclusion of the Civil War.

A singular difference between the European and American game that has survived to this day is the American fixation with time. Whether it was steamboats, trains, or horses, Americans were ever ready with the stop watch. In Rummy´s "Old Europe" one raced horses against horses, not against clocks. To this day, the American habit of clocking a workout seems bizarre to the Euro-horsemen.

Lexington was a son of the great Boston (also the sire of Preakness for whom the second jewel of the Triple Crown is named) as was his most accomplished and undefeated rival, Lecomte (originally and more correctly Le Compte), which ran as Mississippi´s due to his owner´s residence despite the horse´s Louisiana provenance.

Boston got his name from the card game, of the same name, in an episode of which the then two-year-old colt was lost by the attorney who provided successful representation for the defense in Aaron Burr´ treason trial. The horse proved a master of four-mile heats winning fifteen straight. So invincible was his reputation that his owner was often paid not to enter Boston for fear of his presence producing a walkover. Upon retirement his stallion produce soon placed him at the top of the American Stud Book.

As jockeys were frequently slaves or marginal outliers of society, their identity was seldom included in race accounts unless egregious conduct landed them afoul of the stewards. The Great State Post Stake program listed the rider of Arrow (Louisiana´s representative) simply as "Abe." That young slave, later a free man of color, was Abe Hawkins, whose later success was of such a measure that he offered his former master, Duncan Kenner, financial succor after misfortune befell the planter.

Heavy rain fell during the night before race day rendering the course a bog. Race day itself was a Chamber of Commerce ideal. The New Orleans Times-Picayune led the following day with floral reportage so typical of the period: "Rarely has a lovelier spring day opened to more brilliant hopes and expectations than that which yesterday dawned upon the thousands who were rushing forward to the great event of the day, with the most pleasurable expectation."

Their expectation was fulfilled when Lexington, second choice to Highlander in the betting, quickly asserted superiority and wired the field in the first heat with Lecomte a well beaten runner-up. In the second heat, Lexington took back allowing Highlander to make the early running with no change in result. Over 20,000 had been witness to the event including former President Millard Fillmore who issued high praise on the event and the winner.

But a suspicion took hold with the smarts that Lexington had benefited greatly from the off track as all of his wins had been on such. Immediately the perennial loser´s cry of rematch began and Ten Broeck, ever the promoter, seized the moment and scheduled a match race between Lexington and Lecomte exactly one week later.

The smarts looked right when Lecomte (this time with "Abe" his partner) was never headed taking the first heat in world record time of seven minutes twenty six seconds for the four mile route. Between heats, the winner was reported to be "bright and gay" while the defeated champ was "much distressed with every symptom of exhaustion." During the interval, Lexington recovered remarkably and went straight to the lead in the next heat, but Lexington´s rider, apparently in control, erroneously eased his mount at the three mile mark, surrendering a lead that he never regained.

Lecomte was immediately hailed as America´s best but Ten Broeck accepted the defeat convinced he had the better horse. He immediately challenged the winner´s owner, General Wells, to a rematch at $10,000 a side. When Wells declined the offer, the gamesman issued another challenge in Spirit of the Times. Lexington would run against Lecomte´s world record time for the same $10,000 proposition in a single four mile dash, "the first acceptance coming to hand will be valid-subsequent ones declined." A pair of Virginians named Belcher and Green took the other side and the date was set for April 2, 1855 at The Metairie.

The assault on Lecomte´s 7:26 record was suspenseful but not for long. Lexington went the first mile in 1:47 and his connections feared he wouldn´t last. He then sandwiched a 1:51 and a 1:52 between his first mile and a finishing 1:48 and change. The result was a shattering of the world record by 6.25 seconds. The effort awoke General Wells who challenged Ten Broeck and a date was set a mere twelve days later. Lexington routed Lecomte in the first heat so convincingly that the General withdrew his colt from the second and Lexington won in a walkover. The news was dispatched to the country immediately by telegraph and the horse was the talk of the country.

"Any little child of America could have told you the story of Lexington, the name synonymous with everything that is greatest in a horse. He was the heritage of the people, and after him there were merely other horses." This somewhat hyperbolic newspaper quote was typical of the regal esteem in which Lexington was held.

Sadly the vanquishing of Lecomte was Lexington´s last race. For unknown reasons, Boston had gone blind after his racing career. Lexington had raced with deteriorating vision in one eye and now the other was going as well. Although sound in every respect and at his physical peak, there was no choice but to retire him to stud duty. When he arrived in Kentucky, a parade was ordered in his honor.

Without a flag bearer for his team, Ten Broeck purchased Lecomte from the General for $10,000, certainly an equivalent six figure sum in today´s dollars. Ten Broeck had a purpose that was as noble as it was fatuous. Determined to prove the superiority of the American horse, he undertook an expedition to England with his string of runners. Predictably they traveled poorly and Lecomte died of an attack of colic before he had a chance to compete. His indefatigable owner then fended for his livelihood with the English bookies and won the respect and acceptance of the turf swells there. He was a curiosity that they embraced.

His later imports met with better result and Ten Broeck´s Umpire, had he won the 1860 English Derby, would have produced a score of unheard proportion: $750,000 in the currency of the day: he finished second. Alas there were no place bets or exactas to hedge his plunge.

After the death of his English wife, he returned to post Civil War America and was variously described in the press as destitute or Croesus-like in wealth. In fact his finances were greatly diminished and he found his game unrecognizable in the reconstructed south. The sport had moved north and the players were now the robber barons of Wall Street who pursued the game as hobby not as livelihood.

Ten Broeck wed a socially aspiring young widow with whom he moved to California in unhappy circumstance. Before their divorce, he defeated attempts to have him committed as insane.

Lexington fared better though he lost all his sight shortly after retirement. He was leading sire every year from 1861 to 1874 as well as 1876 and 1878. The greatest horse bred in America´s nineteenth century died July, 1, 1875 age 25. His skeleton bespeaks his grandeur to this day on display in the Smithsonian Institute.

Gaming sportsman or sporting gamesman (we favor the latter), Richard Ten Broeck had well earned every bit of his long held Brobdignagian image. With greatly reduced financial estate, he lived his late years in a small cottage in San Mateo, California (likely on or near the present day Bay Meadows Race Track). On August 1, 1892 an appraiser hired to value his racing trophies for possible sale found the great man had expired in his sleep. His body was sent by rail to Kentucky for burial.

"The most intrepid gambler that ever backed a race horse, bucked the tiger, or bluffed a pair of deuces" wrote one obituarian. Ever the Jacksonian, Ten Broeck had named his humble cottage and final redoubt The Hermitage. His end was antecedent to but prophetic of Damon Runyon´s twentieth maxim and short story: "All Horse Players Die Broke."

EPILOGUE-

The transition of The Metairie from race course to cemetery is a saga as well, but we cannot resist a brief anecdote. Your editor broke into the stock game thanks to a gamble by the New Orleans firm of Howard, Weil. The first name in that partnership was Alvin P. "Bud" Howard, a generous mentor to a green recruit. That gentleman´s grandfather, Charles T. Howard, was a noted sportsman and director of the notorious Louisiana Lottery. In 1871, Howard was blackballed from membership in the Metairie Jockey Club because of his ties to the Republican rulers of state government (how times change!). He subsequently formed a rival group that resurrected the old Union Course, outdoing The Metairie in every respect. Having driven the Metairie Jockey Club into financial straits, he submitted a bid of $128,000 for the entire property. Upon acceptance, Howard converted the Metairie from a figurative graveyard into a literal one. And the old Union Course? Howard´s group renamed it the Fair Grounds which still prospers to this day as America´s third oldest race track.

THIS YEAR´S ENTRIES-

A sad reality of our game as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby is the decline in the number of purple home-breds of the great families of racing (e.g. Phipps, Whitney, Vanderbilt, Mellon, Hancock, etc.). More and more we find the entrants comprised of expensive auction produce of fine pedigree and the odd freak of humble origin. The result is that the trainers who train owners as well as horses are represented totally out of proportion to the Derby Laws of Probability. That is why two trainers (Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher) account for 40% of the field. But in Lord Tennyson´s words ours "is not to reason why." All we can say is deal ´em. We´ll start with the 5 Zitoistas followed by the 3 Pletcherians

THE ZITOISTAS:

BELLAMY ROAD- The Bosox fans´ second worst nightmare is named for the historic 1824-built route from St. Augustine to Pensacola, Florida and is owned by Yankee Boss, George Steinbrenner. This colt will enjoy justified favoritism on Saturday. His Wood Memorial (equaled track record, set new stakes record) was as lopsided as it was effortless. Hard to forget his gallop out which required an outrider to pull him up nearly a half mile past the finish. Always had a lot of time for his sire, Concerto, (also owned by The Boss and Derby 9th in ´97). Figure guys may fear a bounce after that huge effort, but he could bounce a lot and maybe still be best. Derbyless rider, Castellano, is budding star and this colt is sharpest arrow in Zito´s quiver. Only a pair of 3yo starts may make this colt the Road less traveled, but he might be the most genuine Bronx Bomber the Boss has.

HIGH FLY- "Mmmm good" applies to this guy and his owner, the Campbell Soup heiress. "High fly ball, deep left field, way back, it might be outta here, it might be, it could be, it is… A home run!" That´s the way the late Harry Caray would characterize forming home runs heading for the seats at Wrigley Field, usually by the visitors. With Calder origin and modest pedigree, this colt´s professional wins in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby would have seemed unlikely as ´05 commenced. But here he is with no less than Jerry Bailey as a partner. His sire Atticus was world record holder for a mile but won longer. This High Fly could turn into a walk-off four bagger on Derby Day.

SUN KING- Named for either King Louis XIV or a cut from the Beatles Abbey Road album, this guy is a son of ´99 Derby King Charismatic and has had a cleverly managed program to end up in Louisville. Thought to be Zito´s number one after strong third in the B.C. Juvenile and easy score in the Tampa Bay Derby (over not much), his Blue Grass performance (distant 4th) did not produce a Louis, Louis refrain from the barn where the colt is known as Elvis. Top rider, Prado, could have jumped to NOBLE CAUSEWAY but stays. Is he "Nothin´ But a Hound Dog" or will he rule on Derby Day? Very tough call.

NOBLE CAUSEWAY- Owner is chairman of Barnes and Noble so no problem booking a bet on this one. Son of Euro Champion, GIANT´S CAUSEWAY which went to the wire with TIZNOW in the B.C. Classic in ´00. Mom (HURRY HOME HILLARY) was definitely not named by ex-Prez Bubba. Has progressed each race with last effort a sound placing in the Florida Derby though still without a stakes win. Bit of a Swami angle for your editor who traversed the New Orleans Causeway daily for over two decades. Could bridge the gap with one more jump up. Gets Gary Stevens as the pilot, a noble kinsman indeed!

ANDROMEDA´S HERO- ANDROMEDA´s mythological HERO was Perseus who rescued her from the jaws of a sea monster. Son of ´00 Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS, this guy is regarded as Zito´s weakest link. Will probably need a dose of Andro to hit the board in this one.

THE PLETCHERIANS:

BANDINI- Named for the Italian sculptor from the 16th century, but on talent and effort, this is no chiseler. Another son of FUSAICHI PEGASUS enjoyed a renaissance of interest after his stunning Blue Grass score. Pletcher-Velasquez combo has to be best trainer-rider tandem without a Derby win but Blue Grass winners bear a curse. In last 25 years, the only colt to make the Keeneland-Church parlay was STRIKE THE GOLD ´91 . Molded like a winner from every angle and has to figure in your business on Derby Day.

FLOWER ALLEY- Same Dad as ´03 winner FUNNY CIDE (DISTORTED HUMOR) is owned by Biovail ($50 to $14 Canadian generic drug maker with numerous S.E.C. beefs) c.e.o. who names all his horses after locales in the Barbados (good place to be when ducking subpoenas). Got up nicely in the Lane´s End and was distant second to ALEX in the Ark Derby. Don´t see any roses being strewn down this FLOWER ALLEY.

COIN SILVER- This year´s late arrival to the party minted a win in the Lexington over one-time Derby fave, ROCKPORT HARBOR. Son of the prematurely deceased ANEES, is bred to go as far as they want. Gains even more currency with the passing of the reins to P-Val who moves everything up a couple of lengths. Silver or bronze award more likely than gold largely due to experience factor.

THE ONE TRAINER ONE HORSE BUNCH-

GOING WILD- Owners (Bob, and Bev Lewis) are genuine nice guys in the business who have a pair of Derby skins already (SILVER CHARM, ´97 and CHARISMATIC, ´99). Definite second stringer (only cost $600k as a yearling) to defected CONSOLIDATOR (fracture) has been ghastly in last two starts. Expect him to force a pace that will be plenty hot without this guy GOING WILD. Coach Lukas says he is training great at Churchill. He better be.

BUZZARDS BAY- Every Derby needs a villain and Buzz´s trainer Jeff Mullins is as close to Snidely Whiplash as we can get. Not only were Mullins´ horses put in a detention barn for 30 days due to excess presence of sodium bicarbonate ("milkshakes" designed to reduce fatigue) but he then attributed racing´s problems to "all the addicts and idiots crying because they lost a $2 bet." Fact is, however, Ole Jeff has won the Santa Anita Derby 3 years running including ´05 with Buzz. Time did not impress the figure guys and pedigree is modest, but Buzz is inbred in 3 generations to RIBOT, one of the most substantial stamina influences in the breed. He won´t need a milkshake to get the mile and a quarter.

GIACOMO- Remember A&M Records? Herb Alpert, The Police, Joe Cocker? GIACO´s owners punched that ticket into the racing game with those artists. Never been to the Derby but won the Oaks with a filly we loved (SARDULA). Very impressed with the colt´s second to DECLAN´S MOON in the Holly Futurity, but so far hasn´t fired the big one at three. Trainer Shirreffs is a personal fave and doubt he would make the trip east unless he expected big improvement. The price will be generous; if you back him you will feel like the Lonely Bull.

WILKO- If you are annoyed by those "Just lost another loan to Ditech" commercials, this is not your horse. Owned by Canadian loan shark J. Paul Reddam, the gutsy colt deserves better. Got up in last jump to nail AFLEET ALEX in the Breeders´ Cup Juvenile, but foot problems hampered progress at three. Was probably best in S.A. Derby in wide trip. Undersized colt is all try and had sizzling work at Santa Anita before jetting east. Most experienced competitor with 14 starts but only 3 wins. If the race falls apart on the front end, it could be Roger, WILKO, over and out.

AFLEET ALEX- Certainly fits the recent winning pedigree model (speed sire with damside stamina). Looked like the juvenile winner til WILKO came out of the clouds. No worse than second careerwise save a throwout Ark Derby prep caused by an undiagnosed lung infection. Maiden Derby trip for connections but they are coming with the goods. If you like those Swami plays, jock is named Rose. No reason why this Alexander cannot be Great.

GREATER GOOD- The Jesuits loved to roll this term out in ethics discussions but the GREATER GOOD here would probably be a shorter, less contentious race for this colt. Has shown a reluctance to relax and blew up in the Ark Derby. Adding an eighth of a mile will create a greater gap from which no good can come.

SORT IT OUT- Medical update: Bob Baffert´s Derby fever has not broken. What other reason to send this horse in this spot? Houston Texans´ owner McNair paid a tidy signing bonus for this guy after his February score in the Whirlaway during the bleak winter meet at the Big A. Winless since and was losing sight of COIN SILVER though best of the rest in the Lexington. When it comes to the Derby, this SORT should be left OUT.

SPANISH CHESTNUT- We had a small chance on this one in the first Derby Future Pool, but his 3yo starts are unhappily consistent: speed and fade. This is not a happy sight when the next tilt is an extra 220 yards. At the least his presence will allay any concern that the pace will be honest Trainer Biancone stretched speedy LION HEART out to a game second last year, but he would be better off pulling this CHESTNUT out of the fire.

CLOSING ARGUMENT- His pedigree is speed on the top, speed on the bottom. But carried it well in the Holy Bull at Gulf while besting eventual Florida Derby winner HIGH FLY. Went over two months without a start before his distant third to BANDINI in the Blue Grass which surely he needed from a conditioning angle. Back end of the superfecta is most optimistic verdict we foresee for this guy.

GREELEY´S GALAXY- Tries to follow the WAR EMBLEM, ´02 path to the roses through the Illinois Derby. Owner is Wayne Hughes, the mini-storage king; octogenarian trainer has only recently ceased working his stock personally. No 2yo form is a worry. His margins of victory have grown with distance though pedigree doesn´t cry mile and a quarter. Admit to being lost in space on this one and if bet, suggest a Little Dipper not a Big one.

DON´T GET MAD- This cleverly named son of STEPHEN GOT EVEN first attracted attention with a stunning rush to be second in the first Santa Anita Derby prep. Subsequent dull performance in the derby itself seemed to knock him off the list. Turned up last Saturday for the Derby Trial in Louisville and destroyed the field. Also owned by Wayne Hughes, this colt is a classic closer and has 3 wins over the Church surface. Pick it whether a bet on this guy gets you MAD or EVEN.

HIGH LIMIT- Lightly raced son of MARIA´S MON (sire of MONARCHOS ´01) wired a weak Louisiana Derby field in his first start at three. Frankel has taken the minimalist school of training to the max with only two starts at two and two at three for this runner-up to BANDINI in the Blue Grass. Hard to fault Master Bobby´s methods but he may find the stakes in the Derby game too lofty for this level of experience.

So "thar she blows," as the whalers used to say and as usual there are all the great questions: Will BELLAMY ROAD bounce? Can AFLEET ALEX and HIGH FLY get a mile and a quarter? Will the Blue Grass jinx undo BANDINI? Are two preps enough for HIGH LIMIT? Should you throw out SUN KING´S last race? Can NOBLE CAUSEWAY and COIN SILVER make another forward move from their last? Was the Santa Anita Derby so slow that BUZZARDS BAY, WILKO, and GIACOMO are throwouts? As much as we hate to say it dear reader, your guess is as good as (probably better than) ours. Noted professional horse player Sammy "The Hat" Allard was quoted in a documentary on ESPN saying: "People don´t want to admit it but horse racing is just like the stock market." To which we can only reply: now they tell me. At least we now know why our hand has been so cold.

THIS YEAR´S PICK-

As usual we are conflicted. The belief here is that BELLAMY ROAD is a vulnerable favorite. His two ´05 wins, though impressive, were in an environment where he was able to control the front end. Last year in the Breeders´ Futurity, when the pace was contentious, he folded to seventh. The ´05 Derby will not lack pace, believe us. AFLEET ALEX is a stone runner but may come up short as we fear the HIGHS, LIMIT and FLY will. We love NOBLE CAUSEWAY´s pedigree but question his turn of foot. We can forgive SUN KING´S Blue Grass but Tampa Bay has never been the road to the roses. Late arrivals like GREELEY´S GALAXY and COIN SILVER are historically high risk props. When we combine the attributes of athleticism, pedigree, trainer, jockey, and performance, we conclude that the winner of the 131st Kentucky Derby will be BANDINI. We wish he had won at two and that there was a bit more stamina influence in the pedigree, but as a total package, we find it impossible to throw him out. He was three wide in the Blue Grass, never benefiting from the Keeneland "golden rail." Knockers point out the crawling 39 second closing 3/8. But no less an authority than Bobby Frankel characterized the track surface that day as "peanut butter." The clincher for us was when BANDINI rolled by stable mate LION TAMER, a five-year-old Grade I winner we have always admired, during a work earlier this week. Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velasquez were deserving winners of last year´s Eclipse Awards for excellence in their categories. They might well repeat.

LONG SHOT THOUGHTS-

A little California Dreamin´ here. Even though we had a losing ticket, we liked WILKO´S Santa Anita Derby where he was four wide the whole race and just missed. We think reuniting with Nakatani in the Big One will help. B.C. Juvenile jinx is even bigger than Blue Grass as no Juvenile winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Still he´s worth a shot. And for the ultra, mega, moon shot play save a couple bucks for GIACOMO. Keep waiting for him to have that breakout race and Saturday could be it.

BETS-

Win only on BANDINI, win-place on WILKO, and across the board on GIACOMO will be our plays. We´ll throw in AFLEET ALEX and SUN KING for exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Here´s hoping we won´t need a loan from Di-Tech.