Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 2007 - 28th Edition

"Is it the Fourth?" were the last words spoken by Thomas Jefferson as he lay dying at Monticello. In Quincy, Massachusetts his long time rival, John Adams, mistakenly believing he had failed at his determination to outlive the Virginian gasped "Jefferson survives" several hours later, just before his own passing. Since they had joined in signing Jefferson's masterpiece fifty years earlier to the day, they had agreed on little regarding the body politic. Their deaths on July 4, 1826 were widely viewed as providential in our still nascent republic.

Jefferson's foiling of Adams' pursuit of a second presidential term with his own election was just one round in an intellectual bout that spanned a half century. In retirement, they entered a cordial correspondence that reflected a deep mutual respect of person if not ideology.

These two titans of the American Revolution came to mind during a reflection on great rivalries both political and sporting: Lincoln-Douglas, Cicero-Cataline, Ali-Frazier, Borg-McEnroe, L.S.U.-Alabama, Redskins-Cowboys, Yankees-Red Sox, and Cubs-Fate.

The provision of rivalry in politics did not begin or end with that pair of American Revolutionaries, but it did provoke thought on great sports rivalries that led ineluctably to horse racing. Notwithstanding some of the epic duels over the decades, no rivalry in the American thoroughbred canon is the equal of Affirmed-Alydar in duration, intensity, or result.

On May of 1978's first Saturday, the notes of Stephen Foster's nostalgic hymn to the Bluegrass announced a field of 11 that thoroughbred cognoscenti had reduced to 2. While a case could be made for the toughened Believe It, (and we did at the time; so made it, so bet it, and hoped it more than believed it), the odds revealed to the masses what every hard boot already knew: this Kentucky Derby would be yet another round of Alydar vs. Afffirmed.

Though the pedigrees of the two colts bore some overlapping bloodline, the pedigrees of their connections, to be polite, diverged. The silks of their owner-breeders told a succinct tale: for Alydar's Calumet Farm, the color was devil-red; for Affirmed's Harbor View Farm, the color was flamingo pink.

The roots of Calumet traced to a 19th century fortune born of Calumet Baking Powder. The roots of Harbor View Farm traced to the athletic son of a junk dealer who became a salaried football player for the University of Georgia during the Depression and a professional boxer ("Kid Wolf"). Louis Wolfson's subsequent rise on Wall Street took him to tycoon level but also resulted in multiple felony convictions before that pairing was the norm.

A review of Calumet Farm shows how quickly noveau riche can morph into "old money." In 1888, a 37 year-old crackerjack baking powder salesman named William Wright put his meager savings into producing his own brand of baking powder he named Calumet. By the onset of World War I, Calumet Baking Powder was a staple of virtually every kitchen in America.

As William grew older and wealthier, his son, Warren, assumed more control of the business as the father splurged on standard bred race horses.

When in 1924, the elder Wright purchased the 400 acres in Lexington that would become Calumet Farm, he was dismissed by the self-anointed bluebloods there as an arriviste. At his death in 1931, he left a huge estate. His now middle-aged son Warren eased out of the baking powder realm and into that of Calumet Farm. But not before he did, he brokered a deal merging his company with Postum, a combination that would eventually grow into the giant General Foods. Bored by the trotter game, he soon switched the farm's theme to thoroughbreds. The fortune commanded by Warren, now in generation number two, was no longer casting the shadow of a cardboard suitcase toted by a fast-talking pitchman with snappy suspenders. If not old money, it was certainly now at least seasoned money.

The mediocre racing results produced by Warren Wright's investment in the top drawer pedigrees of the day produced a frustrating angst, the decline of which coincided with the hiring in 1939 of the previous year's Derby winning trainer, "Plain Ben" Jones. Beginning with the Triple Crown Champion, Whirlaway, in 1941, Calumet garnered eight garlands of Kentucky Derby Roses over a twenty-seven year stretch. There followed Pensive (1944), the second Triple Crown winner Citation (1948), Ponder (1949), Hill Gail (1952), Iron Liege (1957), Tim Tam (1958), and Forward Pass (1968).

Warren Wright died within months of Ponder's Derby. Wright's previously seldom seen and never heard widow, Lucille, was suddenly the public face and private czarina of Calumet. After a suitable period of mourning, the widow was introduced to a man who would become her second husband and trigger an astounding level of celebrity for her.

Gene Markey was a Hollywood bon vivant and screenwriter. A decorated World War II veteran that upon discharge earned promotion to Rear Admiral, Markey insisted upon being addressed by his naval rank. The Admiral's marriage to Lucille Wright would be his fourth and last. Hedy Lamarr (the inspiration for the land grabbing Headley Lamarr in Mel Brooks' Blazing Saddles), Joan Bennett, and Myrna Loy preceded her. For younger readers, that would be the equivalent today of marriages to Jennifer Lopez, Angelina Jolie, and Nicole Kidman. But the Admiral proved a devoted and faithful partner to Lucille over the subsequent quarter century as Calumet Farm became a virtual set for Robin Leach's "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous." Their friendship with the Aly Khan would be the origin of a name for a future prospect. The name would be a contraction of "Aly, darling."

By the time Alydar arrived on the scene, the Markeys were so infirm that they were unable to attend his Derby and were interviewed during the pre-race television program from their living room at the farm.

Louis Wolfson, through his Harbor View Farm, was key to establishing Florida as a power in the breeding and racing of thoroughbred horses. Later he married Patrice Jacobs, daughter of Hall of Fame trainer Hirsch Jacobs.

A native of the Sunshine State, Wolfson ramped a small building materials company he founded into one of the first conglomerates (Merritt-Chapman and Scott). A couple of SEC beefs on illegal stock sales ultimately led to perjury and the old obstruction of justice rap that sent Kid Wolf to a year long stretch at Eglin and not for flying lessons.

For our purposes the starting point of The Greatest Rivalry was Wolfson's 1962 yearling purchase of Raise a Native. Undefeated as a two-year-old and retired from racing due to injury, the son of Native Dancer, was regarded at his death in 1988, as the most influential American sire of his lifetime. He sired 74 stakes winners to that point including 1969 Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince.

His first crop in Florida included the important Exclusive Native whose mating to the Crafty Admiral mare, Won't Tell You, would produce Affirmed. Raise A Native's immediate breeding successes precipitated a move to Kentucky where counted among his mating partners was the accomplished Calumet mare, Sweet Tooth by On And On, from which would result Alydar.

Their 1977 debuts as two-year-olds contrasted somewhat in that Affirmed, though a dominant winner at first asking May 24th at Belmont, was a 14/1 chance at the mutuels. So heralded was Alydar that in his first lifetime start (The Youthful Stakes), he was 9/5 favorite and Affirmed a generous 3/1. Alydar walked out of the gate and was lucky to be fifth. Affirmed won the race by a head in a drive. In every subsequent meeting, they would finish 1-2.

Three weeks later, the odds on favorite Alydar prevailed with Affirmed a well-beaten second. Before their next meeting in the Hopeful at Saratoga, they each notched two more stakes wins. In the Hopeful, the favored Alydar had to be steadied early and missed catching Affirmed by a half length.

In these pre-Breeders' Cup years, the epicenter of American autumn racing was Belmont Park where Derby prospects were separated from the Derby suspects. The seven furlong Futurity in September foretold the plot of the 1978 Classics as the pair was never more than a head apart the last half of the race. Affirmed by a nose spoke the chart. The following month, the one mile Champagne had Affirmed favored for the second time in a row. That colt set the pace but a fast closing Alydar drove past for a length and a quarter win.

Affirmed still held a 3-2 advantage after a demanding schedule. Amazingly only two weeks later, they hooked up yet again in what was thought to be their juvenile finales in the mile and one eighth Laurel Futurity. Alydar regained the bettors' favoritism and the pair was in lock step virtually the entirety of the struggle. With a neck advantage, Affirmed was crowned Champion two-year old.

For some reason, the decision was made to run Alydar once more in the Remsen on a miserable Thanksgiving weekend at Aqueduct. Before Alydar could get uncorked in the slop, Believe It was home free. The camps then separated to their winter redoubts: California for Affirmed and Florida for Alydar.

The soundness of these two after ten starts for Alydar and nine for Affirmed was remarkable as was the narrowness of victory. In their six meetings ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to a mile and 1/16th, Affirmed held a 4-2 advantage but the cumulative net advantage was less than a length.

As disparate as Calumet and Harbor View farms were in their ownership, the training and riding connections were no less so. Alydar's trainer, John Veitch, was the son of Hall of Fame trainer Sylvester Veitch (conditioner for C.V. Whitney and George D. Widener) and an apprentice under Rokeby Stables' Elliot Burch. Reserved and gracious, the younger Veitch, though barely into his third decade, would have been a member of the Hair Club for Men had it then existed. His pate bore a shine rivaled only by Alydar's coat. Affirmed was trained by Laz Barrera, one of nine Havana-born, racehorse-training brothers that made their way to America. Barrera won the 1976 Derby and Belmont with a masterful training job of Bold Forbes, a sprinter that had been champion two-year-old in Puerto Rico. Normally a garrulous interview, Barrera customarily would retreat to an opaque version of English that was unintelligible to the racing press when the question was one he sought to evade.

The principal riders for each were likewise a study in contrast. Although both colts had begun with different riders, by fall Affirmed was partnered by the seventeen year old sensation Steve Cauthen. That year Cauthen would reap a series of seemingly incredible accolades: Eclipse awards for Outstanding Apprentice Jockey and Outstanding Jockey, as well as Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. Alydar's rider was the well-established future Hall of Famer, Jorge Velasquez, who had graduated from his native Panama to the top of the New York Jockey Colony.

The Hot Stove League lacked no subject that winter. Reports of appearance and sizzling works were whispered by the bushel about the rivals. And when the two A-Trains began their preps for the big one, the temperature rose by half.

From Barrera's home base at Santa Anita Park, Affirmed was readied for his three-year-old campaign that began with a facile allowance score in early March. From there his devastating path ran through the San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby, and Hollywood Derby. Every win was by gobs of daylight and in none did the winning odds exceed 2/5.

In Florida, a like tale rode the sports wires. Alydar parlayed a February allowance laugher into odds-on wins in the Flamingo, Florida Derby, and Blue Grass Stakes, the last by a whopping thirteen lengths.

The places were now set for a trio of Classics that has never been equaled. The competition built to a symphonic crescendo worthy of Tchaikovsky's 1812 Overture.

Despite their overlapping lineage, the colts differed greatly in appearance. Affirmed was a light chestnut of lithe construction that invited adjectives like refined, rangy, and handsome. Alydar was a dark chestnut, almost bronze whose appearance suggested an innate athleticism and power that could only find their application on the track. But when it came to that track, there was an equal measure of sagacity, velocity, and tenacity attached to each.

The Alydar faithful once again made him a slight, if only slight, betting favorite in the Derby. For reasons unknown ("he never got a hold of the track" offered his rider), Alydar dropped so far back in the early going that his chances were dismissed by most. Meanwhile, Affirmed stalked an attempted steal by Sensitive Prince, the charge of Allen "Giant Killer" Jerkens, the only dual conqueror of Secretariat. When Sensitive Prince gave way, Believe It took a brief lead bringing equally brief hope to your editor and his long-price playing pals. Affirmed advanced suddenly and surely to open daylight and a rousing rally by Alydar made it look closer than it was:

1978 Kentucky Derby chart notes:
AFFIRMED away alertly but held in reserve for six furlongs, moved up boldly along outside thereafter to take command on second turn, relinquished the lead momentarily a quarter mile out but responded to a rousing ride to regain command in upper stretch and was fully extended to hold ALYDAR safe. The latter, under snug restraint early, commenced to advance from the outside after six furlongs, continued wide in the stretch, swerved to bump with BELIEVE IT in closing sixteenth and finished strongly when straightened.

With jewel number one safely kept, the Affirmed community headed for Pimlico with confident bent. The Alydar faithful now on the short-end of a 5-2 duke were thinking the unthinkable as emigration from their state of denial accelerated. Maybe just maybe, Affirmed was a superior racehorse.

Though both had been at unbettable levels for our purposes, our own affections leaned heavily to Alydar. But much like Brutus' lament in Julius Caesar, it wasn't that we loved Affirmed less, we just loved Alydar more.

At post time of the Preakness, Affirmed was a 2/5 chance and Alydar 9/5. This time Affirmed seized the lead much earlier and Alydar reached even terms with a quarter mile to go. Through the remainder of the race, Affirmed maintained a constant neck advantage:

1978 Preakness chart notes:
AFFIRMED, taken under light restraint after breaking alertly, quickly joined TRACK REWARD from the outside, gained the advantage leaving the first turn, made the pace under clever rating, responded gamely to rousing when challenged by ALYDAR in the upper stretch and turned back that rival under brisk handling. ALYDAR, under restraint and allowed to settle early, advanced willingly outside of horses in backstretch, engaged AFFIRMED well out from the rail approaching the stretch to nearly reach even terms then couldn't get to that rival when set down in a steady drive.

This was a draining experience for both colts yet there was no question they would line up again in three weeks in the longest race either would ever run: the Belmont Stakes at a mile and a half. This is one of those instances where any words put forth here could never give just description to what 56,000 paid admissions witnessed. The dispassionate wording of the Racing Form chart writer was exceeded by race caller Chic Anderson, but even he maintained the detached tone of the reporter typical of the period.

John Veitch, for no apparent reason other than to seek a different result took the blinkers off of Alydar for the Belmont. Affirmed immediately went to the front with Alydar a stalking third. Before the race had reached midpoint, it was clear to Velasquez that Affirmed could not be left unchallenged. When the pair engaged at the 3/4 pole, a cheek to jowl acceleration followed that most serious observers of the sport agree was the ultimate endeavor.

The result (yet again a narrow Affirmed win and Alydar loss) brought criticism of Alydar's trainer and rider (unjustly in our view) but not to the colt's steely determination. Read for yourself, first the chart notes, then the closing moments of the call. Then click on the URL and relive what for me is the most exciting finish in racing history:

1978 Belmont chart notes:
AFFIRMED went right to the front and was rated along on the lead while remaining well out from the rail. He responded readily when challenged by ALYDAR soon after entering the backstretch, held a narrow advantage into the stretch while continuing to save ground and was under left-handed urging to prevail in a determined effort. ALYDAR, away in good order, saved ground to the first turn. He came out to go after AFFIRMED with seven furlongs remaining, raced with that rival to the stretch, reached almost even terms with AFFIRMED near the 3/16th pole but wasn't good enough in a stiff drive.

"It's Alydar and Affirmed battling back along the inside! We'll test these two to the wire! Affirmed under a left-hand whip. Alydar on the outside driving! Affirmed and Alydar heads-apart! Affirmed's got a nose in front as they come on to the wire"

YouTube Video: Affirmed in Belmont

The Triple Crown was Affirmed's but there was one last battle left that would do little to change the minds of either fan base. The two colts were pointed to the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August. The fact that they continued in training after their historic campaign was itself anomalous. Affirmed's lone prep would be the Jim Dandy in which he ran down Sensitive Prince late. Meanwhile Alydar had double-digit virtual walkovers in the Arlington Classic and Whitney Stakes.

An injury to Steve Cauthen brought Laffit Pincay back as Affirmed's rider (he had been aboard for both the wins in the Hollywood Juvenile and Santa Anita Derby). The heavily favored Affirmed, leaving the half mile pole, was racing well off of the rail. Alydar was inside of two horses behind him, and Velasquez guided his colt to the opening on the rail. With Alydar motoring at a level that his faithful were certain would lead to victory, Pincay suddenly moved Affirmed to the rail not only blocking his path, but forcing Velasquez to check sharply to avoid going down. Remarkably after dropping to the back of the field, Alydar re-rallied only once again to finish second behind Affirmed.

The stewards acted quickly, Alydar was led to the winner's circle, and the tote board reversed the order of finish when the results became official. The outcome dissatisfied even the Alydar bettors for the win was clearly tainted.

The courtly John Veitch, obviously feeling the frustration of the long campaign, cast a xenophobic jab: "The way it happened today, the satisfaction of winning is greatly diminished.What Pincay did today might be the way they ride in California. That might be the style there, but you don't get away with that sort of thing here."

They would never meet again though both would race further. An injury to Alydar postponed his return to spring of the following year. Though producing 2 wins and 2 narrow loss seconds from 7 starts at 4, he never recaptured his previous year's form. Affirmed hooked older horses in the fall including a second to a well-rested Seattle Slew in the Marlboro (these were pre-tobacco Taliban days) Cup. Affirmed's four year old record without doubt brought a regal coda to a great horse's career. From 9 starts he scored 7 wins (the last 7 in a row) all with Laffit Pincay aboard. The finale was a 3/4 length win over Specatular Bid in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The final margin of victory in Affirmed's favor tells us much and tells us little. In today's urban vernacular, he is deserving of his props. But after those miles and miles of encounters the net difference in Affirmed's margin of win was a shorter distance than a five year-old can throw a baseball. And that's no joke. Who can say what some minor change in training, strategy, riding technique, or diet might have had on the outcome? This much can be said, that these were two hickory-hard colts and that the runner-up might well have been not only a Derby winnner but a Triple Crown winner in many years before and since.

EPILOGUE:

Fulfilling the predictions at time of retirement, Alydar proved to be his rival's superior at the stud. Affirmed was certainly useful and sired the wonderful champion grass mare Flawlessly, the darling of Del Mar, as well as Canadian Triple Crown winner Peteski. But Alydar sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba '87 and Strike the Gold '91). Another son, Easy Goer, captured the Belmont and denied his nemesis, Sunday Silence, the Triple Crown. The fillies Althea and Miss Oceana were magnificent.

Alydar was euthanized in 1990 after suffering a shattered leg in an apparent stall accident. Affirmed was euthanized in 2001 as a result of severe laminitis.

The Admiral bowed out in 1980, age 84 while Lucille Wright Markey shed her mortal coil 2 years later, age 93. Both Wolfsons were, at last report, alive and kicking.

Laz Barrera died in 1991 of heart disease, age 66. John Veitch trained 1985 Breeders' Cup Classic champion, Proud Truth (with old friend Jorge Velasquez in the irons) and retired from training in 2003. He was a 2006 inductee into the Hall of Fame and currently serves as chief steward in the State of Kentucky.

Finding his adult stature more adaptable to European weight standards, Steve Cauthen moved to England in 1979 where his career flourished. He was champion rider there 3 times and won the Epsom Derby (twice), as well as French, Irish, and Italian Derbies. He retired in 1992 and returned to his native Kentucky where he is an executive at Turfway Park. Jorge Velasquez won the Derby and Preakness aboard Pleasant Colony in 1981 and retired from riding in 1997. Both riders are in the Hall of Fame.

The rise and fall of Calumet Farm could fill a book and in fact has ("Wild Ride" by Ann Hagedorn Auerbach, a valuable resource for this piece and highly recommended). The fall part can be summarized thusly. At the passing of Lucille Markey, control passed to her grandaughter's spalpeen husband, one J.T. Lundy. Lundy, a low-life beyond description, plundered Calumet into bankruptcy. Whether it is true that he engineered Alydar's death for the $36 million insurance award remains unproven. What was proven though were multiple felony counts involving bank fraud, bribery, and conspiracy for which Lundy earned a four and one half year sentence that was completed in 2005.

The dramatis personae of this epic are interesting and memorable but the dramatis equi are indelible and unforgettable.

THIS YEAR'S RACE

One of the endearing qualities of thoroughbred horse racing is its slowness to change and its virtual Luddite resistance to technological advance. Watch a Derby from 50 years ago and apart from the grainy film and the fashions of the spectators you would be hard pressed to separate it from the present. The shunning of broad television coverage in that medium's early days (fans would stay home instead of going to the track the wisemen calculated) conceded the canvas to sports that have long since surpassed horse racing in popularity.

Now we have a new entry to the sport's glossary: Polytrack. Briefly Polytrack is a synthetic racing surface that after a successful run at Turfway Park is growing in popularity due to its consistency (always a fast track) and its kinder treatment of horses' limbs. But the version at Keeneland produced a result in the Blue Grass Stakes that makes determining that race's relevance to the Derby all but impossible. Most of the race was at a Euro-style gallop followed by a mad dash to the finish. So those of us obsessed with finding the Derby victor have another imponderable to weigh. Just what is present in the handicapper's DNA that directs us thus? We would borrow Hannibal Lecter's answer to a similar question in Silence of the Lambs. "Nothing happened to me Officer Starling. You can't reduce me to a set of influences." Ever mindful of the import of our task, we venture forth with a favorite Latin quote of our high school writing teacher: "verba volant, scripta manent" (spoken words fly away, written words endure).

THIS YEAR'S FIELD (BY PROGRAM NUMBER AND POST POSITION)

1) SEDGEFIELD- Same Daddy as Curlin and was a decent second in the Lane's End. We are operating on the assumption that this colt is named for the English Race Course. Possible hunch play for the Queen but a Sedgefield win would surely come from left field.

2) CURLIN- This colt is in the "pay whatever it takes to buy after a maiden win with a big figure" category of prospects. Principal owner at present is Jess (Kendall-Jackson Winery) Jackson whose partnership paid $3.5 million for the colt after his stunning debut at Gulfstream in February. The prior owners paid but $57k for Curlin as a yearling. They are two lawyers, named William Gallion and Shirley Cunningham, Jr., who are in a legal boil after allegedly pilfering over $60 mill from their client plaintiffs in the Fen-phen diet drug case. Almost certain to be the favorite after posting a perfect 3 for 3 tab, the colt is up against the well-worn historical taboos: Apollo in 1882 was last Derby winner with no starts at 2 and the filly Regret in 1915 was last Derby winner with 3 or fewer starts. Most of sire's (Smart Strike) runners seem best at less than Derby distance, but there is plenty of staying power on the dam's (by Deputy Minister) side. Trainer Asmussen (not one of our favorites) has multiple leading trainer titles as well as multiple medication violations; jockey Albarado is latest Louisiana star. If this colt's on the lead turning for home, the only thing curlin' at our house will be our toes.

3) ZANJERO- This guy made steady progress all winter here and looms as the wise guy horse after his tough beat in the Blue Grass while stuck on the rail. Zanjeros were the irrigation workers in the west who traveled by horseback opening and closing gates. This is the other Asmussen trainee and has labored in Curlin's shadow. Sire Cherokee Run was a sprinter but dam (by A.P. Indy) has lots of Europeans stayers in her family. Outsider with a shot.

4) STORM IN MAY- Hats off to this $16,000 over-achiever. To have 8 starts at 2 and still be able to finish second in the Arkansas Derby certanly gives him a right to be here. A top ten finish is about our most optimistic expectation.

5) IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY- We find people that name their horses with the maximum allowable letters in one word especially annoying. This son of Wild Event was a surprising second in the Risen Star but was subsequently well beaten in the Louisiana and Florida Derbies. Drew in after defections of Cobalt Blue and Xchanger. If she is thinking of junior, this could complete the Queen's exacta but Youwouldbeawildandcrazyguy to bet this one.

6) COWTOWN CAT- Another Pletcher prize, this guy sold for $1.5 million at 2. Son of Distorted Humor, out of a Storm Cat mare and comes to the big one off of 2 convincing wins in the Gotham and Illinois Derby. Female family is a little light for the price tag. We have no beef with Cowtown's record but looks a better Preakness fit to us.

7) STREET SENSE- If we had any, we would pick him. Looking to break the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner jinx (none has won the Derby), this guy has done nothing wrong and has proven fondness for Churchill. Trainer Nafzger, a great guy and great horsemen trained beloved 1990 Derby champ Unbridled (picked here). Another Louisiana rider, Borel, has been with the colt every step of the way. The colt is from the first crop of the magnificent $5 million winner Street Cry out of the speedy Dixieland Band mare, Bedazzled. Apart from having only 2 starts at 3, there is absolutely nothing not to like here. Street Sense has street cred.

8) HARD SPUN- Connections are Derby firsters but deserve respect. This colt took the Smarty Jones route through the Keystone State at 2 and impressed during his later stay in New Orleans. Blew his perfect record at Hot Springs in an inexpicably dull effort in an Arkansas Derby prep. Made resounding amends in the Lane's End. With no starts in April, this guy was nearly forgotten until white hot work at Churchill this week. Impeccable Derby pedigree with stalker speed equals major contender.

9) LIQUIDITY- Another Reddam-O'Neill participant, this colt was thought to be at the head of the California class until 2 consecutively dull efforts in the Louisiana and Santa Anita Derbies. Sire Tiznow won the Breeders' Cup Classic twice. We admit to a soft spot for Liquidity as Tiznow was awfully good to us and his female family contains Innisfree Farm's lone homebred stakes winner, Scruffy Murphy. Loads of stamina in this pedigree and if O'Neill has a formula for converting liquid into gas, this colt's best would put him in the frame for sure.

10) TEUFLESBERG- A blue collar yearling buy ($9000) that took 9 tries before he won a race. By Johannesburg out of a Devil's Bag mare, his name translates as Devil's Mountain. Part of the blanket Blue Grass finish, he figures to be a pace factor but think he will have a devil of a time climbing the Derby mountain.

11) BWANA BULL- This son of Holy Bull won the two major Northern California fixtures, El Camino Real and California Derbies, which is sort of like winning the Arena Football League. Tried to step up to the bigs in the Santa Anita Derby and was no threat. Respect Trainer Hollendorfer, who always springs some NoCal shipper upsets to Del Mar, but we are bearish on this bull.

12) NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ- Wonderfully named colt owned by the widow of Tommy Valando, a delightful character and producer of Broadway music, who owned Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and Derby 5th '91 Fly So Free. Trainer Barclay Tagg found the way with Funny Cide '03. So impressive was Biz's maiden win that an offer of $17 mill was received (and rejected) on behalf of the elder Dubai Brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum . The colt's failure to maintain concentration was seemingly solved in his Wood Memorial win in which blinkers and ear plugs were added. For this race a show biz, a place biz, and even a win biz are all possibilities.

13) SAM P.- This colt is named for one Sam P. Burton, a legendary WWII hump pilot who flew countless high risk missions over the Himalayas and happily will be watching Saturday. Sent west by Pletcher to avoid the rest of his Derby team, the colt finished second in the last prep for, and third in, the Santa Anita Derby. The equine Sam P. has not quite gotten over the hump yet. If you are looking for a Derby Letter swami angle, this son of Cat Thief has both Alydar and Affirmed in his pedigree.

14) SCAT DADDY- From first crop of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion, Johannesburg, this colt comes to Louisville off of consecutive impressive wins in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Another soldier in the Pletcher army, about the only reservation we can muster is his taste for those last 220 yards at Churchill. Will partner with Barbaro's jock of last year, Edgar Prado, and figures to get some prominent calls. Whether this Daddy scats or scuttles at crunch time is your call.

15) TIAGO- Except for the sire (replace Holy Bull with Pleasant Tap), you have a replay of 2005's edition with Giacomo. Same mama, owner, trainer, and jock. Much like Giacomo (named for Sting's son), Tiago is named for the son of Sergio Mendes. Also following his older brother, this colt was slow to come to hand. Tiago was visually stunning in his last to first (sound familiar?) win in the Santa Anita Derby. With apoplogies to Shakespeare and Othello, you could say a more "Honest Tiago" emerged in that race. We never forget our friends and we'll have something on this guy just in case, but not enough in the original Iago's words "to ever make my fool my purse."

16) CIRCULAR QUAY- First of all, it is pronounced "key" and is the hub of Sydney, Australia's harbor. Damon Runyan once wrote a gem called "All Horseplayers Die Broke." A sequel could have been "But Not The Bookmakers." From his successful career from turf and sports accountancy, Michael Tabor has already produced one Derby winner in Thunder Gulch '95. Now he comes with a homebred son of that one who took this year's Louisiana Derby handily. This colt is not robust of build and has been handled accordingly. Top trainer in Pletcher and rider Johnny V is probably the best rider to have not won a Derby. Only 2 starts at two, an 8 week layoff, and no start beyond a mile and 1/16th are major issues for an obviously serious threat.

17) STORMELLO- Admit to being stumped on this one as he showed both solid form at two and promise in early preps at three. Two California-Florida commutes in the month of March along with a taxing setting of the pace in the Florida Derby set this colt back some. But he should go to the gate well-rested. Owner-trainer Currin is an aquaintance of ours and we hold him in high esteem both professionally and personally. With Kent D at the controls, you can pretty well assume that the game plan is to steal. Without a classic stamina pedigree, there is a late stage risk of legs turning to jello. But no one will call this fellow Stormello yellow. He carries his track and his game with him.

18) ANY GIVEN SATURDAY- Another Pletcher trainee that ran an excusable sub-par effort in the Wood Memorial on short rest. Being a son of Distorted Humor (sire of Funny Cide '03 winner) and from an A.P. Indy mare leaves little doubt that he will stay the distance. Rider Gomez is the now rider and certainly has a Derby waiting in his resume. Our beef is with the owners, founders of a pyramid scheme in the long distance reselling business that lost a lot of people money apart from them. There could be a given Saturday where we could bet this guy but not this one.

19) DOMINICAN- Although not without some stamina influences in his pedigree, this surprise winner of the wackily run Blue Grass, does not look suited to the Derby distance. His sire El Correador was at his outer limits at a mile. The Dominican Republic is the wellspring of major league shortstops. We expect this guy to come up short and stop major league.

20) GREAT HUNTER- Another 2 prep starter, this son of Derby and Belmont runnerup, Aptitude '00, figures to relish the distance but also to be far back early. Has a tendency to get caught in traffic and in the Blue Grass was forced to check sharply mid-stretch. Owned by J. Paul "just lost another loan to Ditech" Reddam and trained by top Californian Doug O'Neill, he will piloted by Corey Nakatani. The latter, though only 35, is 0 for 11 in this one. If the hunter can avoid being the hunted, he could make it very interesting late in the running.

OUR PICK:

Thoroughbred horse racing is a pure meritocracy once the minimal requirements of breed certification have been met. That said, we have always weighed pedigree heavily in our Derby analysis simply because it works.

In the hopes that there may be a first time reader or two out there, we remind you that this letter seeks a value bet not necessarily the most likely winner. We would name Street Sense if that were the case. But unless he goes off at 5/1 or better, which is highly unlikely, we are looking elsewhere.

The sire of our pick, the recently deceased Danzig, will be remembered as Northern Dancer's most influential son having produced 192 stakes winners and 10 champions. The dam of our pick, Turkish Tryst is a daughter of Alydar's son, Turkoman and offers a peek into a beautiful Darby Dan foundation family developed by the late John Galbreath. That industrialist and sportsman was owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates, one English Derby and 2 Kentucky Derby winners. Third dam, Luiana, was not only a sister of Derby winner and champion Chateaugay and champion Primonetta, she produced Preakness and Belmont winner, Little Current. Additionally Luiana produced Water Dance, Prayers 'N Promises, and our pick's second dam, Darbyvail by Roberto.

Normally you would expect this pedigree to produce the deep closer type but our pick has exhibited a handy ability to quicken whenever asked. Our trainer, Larry Jones, is a Derby newbie but trained Grade I winner, Island Sand. Our rider is 46 year old Derby rookie, Mario Pino. Mario is a perennial leader on the Mid-Atlantic circuit. Patience is crucial in the Derby and his ability to wait patiently in turf contests has produced a betting angle known as "Pino on the green-o."

Since our pick's last start winning the Lane's End in March, he had slipped somewhat from notice until blowing by his Grade I winning filly workmate, Wildcat Bettie B., in a 5/8 mile work at Churchill this Monday. Eyes popped when the clockers caught him in 57 3/5 seconds. Was this too much too fast so close to the race as many observers think? Our vote is no. Our pick has a history of bullet works and has recovered well from this one.

We are certainly assured of double digit odds with this year's pick. There will be a slight change in the betting angle since the Derby is on dirt not grass. Instead of "Pino on the green-o," how about "Pino with the green-o?" We know this year's edition will be hard won-let's hope it is also HARD SPUN!

THE BET- Time to put your gamble on, my brothers and sisters. We will bet Hard Spun to win and place. We will box a serious exacta with Street Sense and Hard Spun. Our moonshot-longshot will be Liquidity which we will bet across the board. Throw in Great Hunter for tris and superfectas.