Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 2009 - 30th Edition

“He kept us out of war!” was the triumphant campaign slogan chosen for Woodrow Wilson’s reelection campaign. In 1915, the election was still a year distant and Wilson had indeed steered America through a neutral strait between the warring powers of Europe. Less appreciated, and even far less understood by the electorate, was his leadership in passage of two major pieces of legislation that, depending on one’s politics, evokes either profound admiration or deep odium. The acts creating the Federal Reserve Bank and the Federal Trade Commission were both scripted by that former New Jersey Governor and President of Princeton.

Woody’s catchy mantra did produce a win over Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes in the election the following year. Like most campaign commitments, this one soon gave way to another: “Make the world safe for democracy” as Wilson declared the entrance of the U.S.A. into World War I within a year of his second inauguration. “The war to end all wars” it was called. As Casey Stengel often said “You could look it up.”

“Going, going, gone” might have been the announcer’s chosen phrase had there been such a thing as radio or television, which there was not. On that day (May 6, 1915), the Boston Red Sox lost 4-3 to the New York Yankees in fifteen innings. The Red Sox losing pitcher could take some consolation in hitting his first career home run. No fan or player would have guessed that the pitcher’s initial circuit clout would be followed by 713 more. But George Herman Ruth, the luckless Sox hurler, not only had not yet become the Sultan of Swat or the Bambino; he had not even acquired his legendary moniker, Babe.

The day after the Babe went yard a German U-boat sunk the British ocean liner, Lusitania, killing 1198 of the 1959 persons aboard. Among the doomed was Alfred Vanderbilt, en route to England in search of additions to his stable of race horses. The foppish third son of the Commodore met his end with purpose as he voluntarily removed his life vest and secured it onto a young mother holding her infant. The thirty eight year old non-swimmer put women and children first in full knowledge that by doing so his chance of survival had been reduced to zero.

Alfred Vanderbilt

The day after the loss of Lusitania, the Kentucky Derby was run in Louisville. The public installed Harry Payne Whitney’s filly, Regret, as the 5/2 favorite over champion colt Pebbles. All of the forty one previous renewals had been won by colts or geldings though distaff representation was not infrequent. Lady Navarre came second in the 1906 edition and fillies had finished third the three years previous.

Whitney was the brother-in-law of the just deceased Alfred Vanderbilt by virtue of a marital union with poor Alfie’s older sister, Gertrude. The consummate sportsman, Harry was a ten goal polo player and crossed American quarter horse stallions with English thoroughbred mares to produce the distinctive American polo pony.

Mrs. Whitney would make her own headlines fifteen years later in winning a custody suit involving a young niece. Later in life, the niece would parlay her designer genes into designer jeans under the Gloria Vanderbilt label. Many years later from the womb of Gloria would spring the future CNN anchor, Anderson Cooper.

Derby history was made in a most anticlimactic manner as reported by the chart caller who wrote that Regret “drew away to win easing up.” After all Regret had drilled the best colts of her generation the previous summer at Saratoga and was undefeated going into the Derby. So while the first filly winning the Derby could be seen as precedent setting, this was hardly a “stop the presses” moment. Given that ratification of the Nineteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution (in effect giving women the right to vote) was still five years away, the coverage was not surprising. Below is the entire reportage of the New York Times on the event:

Financial Panics in 1893 and 1907 had set back the Derby’s progress from both a business and sporting perspective. But the race’s tireless promoter, Colonel Matt Winn, gave Regret the most regal of accolades. “Regret made the Kentucky Derby an American institution,” said the Colonel. In spite of the Times’ apparent short shrift, Regret’s win resonated from coast to coast. (n.b. from the verb shrive, to confess, in first usage a short shrift was an easy penance given at confession).

In Regret’s eleven race career, she won nine times only two of which were exclusive to her sex. She was the favorite in every start and carried imposts as high as 129 lbs.

Her force as a dominating race horse, not just holding a perfect record against fillies and mares, was undeniable. That combined with her parentage (Broomstick-Jersey Lightning by Hamburg) produced high hopes for her offspring.

Alas Regret’s produce record paled next to her race record. From eleven foals, she produced six winners and a single stakes winner, Revenge. Such an accomplishment would have been envied by most mares, but for her it could only be characterized as regretful. At her death in 1934, this precedential race mare was interred at the Whitney Farm.

From Regret’s Derby to 1959, another fourteen fillies took a shot at the garland of roses. All fell short, though there were some interesting placings. Viva America came third in 1918 and in 1921 Prudery and Careful (two rare female characteristics in the flapper era) came third and fifth respectively.

In 1923 the Equal Rights Amendment was first introduced in the Congress but no fillies appeared in the Derby again until 1929. During the Great Depression years, six fillies went post ward, the most notable being Nellie Flag in 1935 who started as betting favorite and came fourth.

The next year, precisely three years after FDR outlawed the private ownership of gold, Gold Seeker could finish no better than ninth. And with that feeble attempt, fillies all but disappeared from the Derby scene as a mere two young ladies passed the entry box over the next forty three years. Indeed throughout the sixties and seventies, the sum of Derby fillies totaled nil.

Now get this: the ERA was introduced in every Congress from 1923 to 1970. An endorsement of the amendment was included in every Republican platform from 1944 to 1980. Fierce opposition came from organized labor which did not want women competing with their membership for jobs. Eleanor Roosevelt and most New Dealers were opposed owing to a fear of women being forced into labor outside the home.

When the ERA was finally sent to the states for ratification in 1972, the joint resolution was adopted in Congress behind hearty backing from none other than President Richard Milhous Nixon. And there began a seven year shot clock of sorts for the backers to get the required approval of thirty eight state legislatures.

So what, the reader (if even still present) asks, does this have to do with horse racing? So here’s the deal. In the quest for equal footing, pay, and opportunity, the rise of the biped feminism movement foretold a similar ascent of equine feminism. The early years of the 70’s decade were crammed with Roe vs. Wade, Billy Jean King vs. Bobby Riggs, bra burnings, and even a few colonies of women separatists.

Into this milieu in 1974 entered a Wonder Woman of sorts. A two-year old filly, from the mating of Reviewer and Shenanigans, strode rampant over her generation. Her anthracite coat covered an Amazon-like physique that cast a spell of intimidation. She was called Ruffian and to even type her name brings tremors to your editor’s fingers. The ease with which she dispatched those unfortunates who opposed her can only be called total. Five for five in her juvenile year, she continued her run at three annexing every major filly stakes on offer in New York. By June she not only had ten wins in as many starts but had been in front every step of the way in every heat. Her past performance lines in the Daily Racing Form read nothing but aces at every pole.

Meanwhile a very good little colt named Foolish Pleasure, conditioned by Leroy Jolley, had hung up a perfect score in seven starts at two. At three, he impressed with a Derby win and a pair of game seconds in the Preakness and Belmont to Master Derby and Avatar respectively.

No Mensa membership is required to anticipate what came next. A “Battle of the Sexes” Match Race was proposed. The gauntlet tossers agreed to a mile and a quarter at Belmont on July 6, 1975. Ironically the regular rider for both horses was Jacinto Vasquez who opted to stay with the filly. The masterful Braulio Baeza would partner the colt.

The trainers shared a taciturn demeanor but were a generation apart in age. Ruffian was handled by Hall of Fame trainer, Frank Whiteley, who now sixty had earlier directed the fortunes of champions Tom Rolfe, Damascus, and Forego. At thirty eight, Leroy Jolley, son of trainer Moody Jolley, had finished third with Derby favorite Ridan in 1961 before getting the roses with Foolish Pleasure.

The New York Times produced a boxing-like Tale of the Tape comparing key vitals. Although Foolish Pleasure shaded Ruffian’s 5 ft. 3 in. by a quarter of an inch at the withers, the filly outweighed the colt 1125 lbs to 1061 lbs almost all of which was housed in her powerful girth that was a full 2.5 inches larger than her rival’s.

The eighth race on the card that day was “The Great Match,” a $350,000 Stakes with Ruffian installed as the ½ favorite over Foolish Pleasure at 4/5. The “fresh horse” theory was still decades from fashion and many wizened handicappers gave Jolley’s colt the edge as battle hardened by his recently completed campaign for the Triple Crown while Ruffian’s races had been leisurely leg-stretchers.

The track announcer style was still evolving from the nasal, emotionless calls reminiscent of Clem McCarthy to the present day dramatics of Tom Durkin and Trevor Denman. The voice of Chick Anderson, still resonating from the ’73 Derby when he described Secretariat as “moving like a tremendous machine”, was on duty that day.

Foolish Pleasure got the first jump, but Ruffian quickly took a narrow lead along the inside. After reporting that the first quarter had been run at a Breeders’ Cup Sprint (3/4 mile) pace of 22 1/5 seconds with over a mile still awaiting the pair, Anderson called Ruffian a head in front and widening her advantage when suddenly in only a slightly elevated tone said “Ruffian has broken down. This race is over.”

Not only was the race over but in less than twenty four hours, so would be Ruffian’s life. Her shattered right ankle and associated complications left euthanasia as the only humane option. She left as two Greek goddesses in one: Aphrodite, the goddess of beauty and Athena, the goddess of heroic endeavor.

She was interred at nine in the evening in the infield of Belmont Park, the site of her greatest racing moments. Bill Nack, whose “Ruffian- A Racetrack Romance” recounts her time in unequaled eloquence, wrote: “All that was left were the memories. Only the legend lived.”

The rest of the decade belonged to the colts as Seattle Slew and Affirmed won back to back Triple Crowns in 1977 and 1978. Spectacular Bid almost made it a three peat in 1979 before being upset by Coastal in the Belmont.

Little notice was paid in late September of 1979 when Leroy Jolley saddled a daughter of Exclusive Native –Virtuous with Jacinto Vasquez up to a convincing debut win over a sloppy Belmont track. Attention that day was on Derby prospect, Rockhill Native, boosting his reputation in the Grade II Cowdin Stakes.

Not until Genuine Risk followed that maiden win with three consecutive wins including two graded stakes did the R word dare be mentioned. Could she sweep the New York filly stakes as the sainted one had? Would she break the two decade long draught of female Derby starters?

Leroy Jolley had grown no freer with words in the five years that had passed since Foolish Pleasure’s Derby. The filly’s owners, Bert and Diana Firestone, were all too happy to express their Derby hopes.

Diana, in whose name Genuine Risk ran, was an heiress to the Johnson & Johnson fortune. She and Bert’s homebred General Assembly, a son of Secretariat, had been second in The Bid’s Derby procession the year before.

After a winter freshening, Genuine Risk ran her perfect total to six with a pair of allowance wins against fillies before being entered in the Wood Memorial, a key test for Derby hopefuls.

At this point, please indulge a brief digression. That year (1980) at the request of friends and co-workers, I committed to authoring a brief analysis of the Derby to be circulated in memo form to those interested. Though brevity was long since abandoned, this year will be number thirty.

Going into the Wood, I was a committed Genuine Risker and supported her significantly at what I considered generous odds of 8/1. The favorite, Plugged Nickle, led throughout but drifted out badly in front of the filly as she was winding up her move. Vasquez’s brief checking of his mount produced a claim of foul against the winner but the stewards were not impressed.

Seething at the injustice of the moment, I was nonetheless convinced I had my Derby horse until….. in a post race interview on national television Leroy Jolley said the Derby was no longer a possibility and the Oaks would be the next start. When the Firestone’s overruled him, I wrote it off to owner impulse trumping the best interests of the horse.

Oof! Small consolation was afforded that your editor’s eventual Derby pick, Rumbo, closed from last to second behind the first filly since Regret to win the Kentucky Derby. Genuine (always remember the announcer pronounced it gen-you- wine) Risk stormed home to win going away at odds of 12.40/1!

Now everyone’s sweetheart and 2/1 in the Preakness, as a lover scorned I vowed to even the score with the track gods by backing California invader, Codex, a son of my old fave Arts and Letters.

Why try to improve on the late Joe Hirsch's description?

At the half-mile pole, Codex took off, had the lead in an instant. Genuine Risk began moving almost as soon as Codex and was in high gear around the turn, racing in the middle of the track.

As Codex passed the point of the turn, entering the stretch, Cordero turned in the saddle and spotted Genuine Risk. He then guided Codex out to a point just inside the filly and carried her even wider than she would have gone on her own momentum, while swinging his whip vigorously on the right side. There was light brushing, the filly's head seemed to nod sharply as though struck, and she lost her momentum for an instant. Gamely she recovered, pursued Codex to the wire, but the battle was lost by a margin of four and a three-quarter lengths.

Reasoning that Codex was much the best, a claim of foul by Vasquez's was disallowed. Immediately the howling began with Angel Cordero cast as the villain, a role from which he did not shirk. As the last of the truly old school race riders, at a minimum he was a liberal interpreter of the rulebook. Codex’s trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, defending his rider through perfectly aligned store-bought ivories and witness protection program shades came across as a real life Snidely Whiplash.

An appeal to the Maryland Racing Commission to overrule the stewards was rejected and the tension between Vasquez and Cordero grew in the run up to the Belmont in which both were projected starters. As told in Hallie Mc Evoy’s excellent biography of Genuine Risk, the Belmont stewards summoned the riders and delivered a dire warning regarding threats and predatory race riding.

Despite their presence in adjacent starting gate stalls, Codex and Genuine Risk saw little of each other in the Belmont. Codex displayed soreness in training after the Preakness and was finished early. Genuine Risk stalked the leaders, took command over the sloppy track briefly before being run down by 53/1 Temperance Hill, the Arkansas Derby winner.

Not only had she become the first filly to compete in all the Triple Crown races, Genuine Risk left with a win and two seconds. She raced with distinction into her fourth year and was never worse than third in fifteen career starts.

Her Hall of Fame slot as a race mare was always assured. Her life as a broodmare, anticipated with studied excitement when booked to fellow champion Secretariat in 1992, can only be called a tragedy of operatic dimension.

The horror commenced with a stillborn colt from that mating. The next ten years featured non-breeding, failures to conceive, and miscarriages before a colt named Genuine Reward by Rahy was produced in 1993. Neither he nor her other foal, Count Our Blessing by Chief Honcho ever raced. The former stands at stud for a pittance in Wyoming while the latter fashioned a career in the show ring.

Her doting owners provided nothing but the best for her even moving her to Giltown Stud, their farm in Ireland (site of Shergar’s kidnapping when owned by the Aga Khan) in hopes that a more hospitable setting would produce favorable breeding results. It was there that I met the great lady during her appointment with Cure the Blues in 1984. She was turned out next to the Firestone’s superb turf mare, Run The Gauntlet.

Her later years were spent at the Firestone’s Virginia farm where she died in her paddock the morning of August 18, 2008.

An overmatched Cupecoy’s Joy served as a rabbit in the 1982 upset by Gato Del Sol (picked here) but the next significant filly effort came from D. Wayne Lukas in 1984. Finding the Derby an unsolvable Rubik’s Cube despite his coming successes in the nascent Breeders’ Cup series, he sent a two filly entry of Life’s Magic (8th) and Althea (19th). For reasons still unknown here, the public made the entry favorite over the winner Swale. Undaunted D. Wayne was back in 1988 with a much stronger distaff hand.

Eight years after Genuine Risk shattered the filly jinx in the Derby, Winning Colors added another win but it was no upset. After parlaying the Santa Anita Oaks and Derby gate to wire by a total of fifteen lengths, Gary Stevens kept the same strategy intact successfully at Churchill and ole D. Wayne finally hugged the rose bouquet. Following a troubled third in the Preakness, the obviously spent filly was pressed into duty in the Belmont where she finished last of six to Preakness and Belmont winner, Risen Star.

Notwithstanding her earlier success, we count her nostril loss to Personal Ensign in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff as not only her most gallant moment, but one of the greatest finishes we ever witnessed. Racing in looming darkness over a sloppy Churchill strip, Winning Colors appeared in control over a closing Goodbye Halo midway the stretch. The heretofore undefeated Personal Ensign appeared hopelessly beaten at the back of the pack well into the lane. Finally getting her best stride under Cajun Randy Romero’s patient guidance, Personal Ensign launched a tornadic bid that still appeared short in the final strides. It was not. Personal Ensign retired undefeated because she was just that much better and Winning Colors lost with no disgrace.

Though eight year her junior, Winning Colors pre-deceased Genuine Risk by six months. In foal to Mr. Greeley, she was euthanized due to complications from colic. Though not distinctive, her produce record does include a graded stakes placing in Japan.

In the following twenty years two deserving fillies (Serena’s Song, 16th ’95 and Excellent Meeting, 5th ’99) and one rank outsider (Three Ring, 19th ’99) took their shots. However, a non-Derby starter, the filly Rags to Riches, out gamed the Preakness and eventual Breeders Cup Classic champ, Curlin, in the 2007 Belmont. The next Derby filly did not show until last year.

This brings us to the tragedy of Eight Belles. No matter what rooting interest one had in last year’s Derby, seeing this brave filly leave eighteen of the best three year old colts in her wake was joyful. And seeing her inexplicable post race demise, the result of two shattered front ankles, relegated nearly everyone save the callous, clueless, trophy- presenting Churchill Downs C.E.O. to the depths of despond.

Anyone fortunate enough to witness Eight Belles’ fifteen length romp in a non-winners of two at Fair Grounds last January could only fantasize what her ultimate upside might become. Shipped to Hot Springs to separate her from her talented stable mate, Proud Spell, the grand filly reeled off three straight stakes wins before shipping to Louisville.

Despite her connections being the same as our ‘07 pick, Hard Spun (2nd), we assumed she was bound for the Oaks and withheld her from our Derby screen. The last minute change in plans left us wrong-footed with our picks already made. Still we felt a part of her scintillatingly Derby effort and equally so her heart rending end.

The uninformed and ill-informed criticism leveled at trainer Larry Jones and rider Gabriel Saez sickened us further. Jones gave Eight Belles the highest level of care without anabolic steroids or other performance enhancers. Nor did the rider abuse her in any way.

The sad truth is that decades of permissive race day medication rules have introduced a genetic complex into thoroughbred breeding the result of which is a speedy but far less durable animal. And worse, the lax penalties for violations of these rules encourage the malefactors in the game. That should be the subject of protest not the exemplary professional conduct of Jones and Saez.

Macbeth’s soliloquy upon learning of his Lady’s passing has phrases that fit our tale so well. “I have supp’d full with horrors” says the Thane of Cawdor. “Direness familiar to my slaught’rous thoughts cannot once start me.”

“She could have died hereafter. There would have been a time for such a word.” These of course are the final prefacing phrases to the immortal “Tomorrow “lament.

Are their lives just a “walking shadow”? Were the “dusty deaths” of Ruffian and Eight Belles unworthy of marking? Are these late beauties just “poor players that strut and fret their hour upon the stage and then are heard no more”?

We, of course think not. What can be said of this estimable group of equine marvels that raced our flawed but mesmerizing sport with grace beyond compare? Repeating their names only enhances the glister of these “brief candles”: REGRET-RUFFIAN- GENUINE RISK- WINNING COLORS-PERSONAL ENSIGN- EIGHT BELLES. No more fitting collective epitaph could be issued on their behalf than what Ben Johnson wrote of William Shakespeare nearly half a millennium ago: “not of the age, but for all time." Or again Macbeth: “To the last syllable of recorded time.”

EPILOGUE:

Frank Whiteley- Ruffian’s trainer died last year age 93. He left this life as he led it and at his request, no funeral or memorial service was held.

Leroy Jolley- The Hall of Fame trainer of Foolish Pleasure and Genuine Risk still operates a small public stable on the New York circuit at age 72.

Foolish Pleasure- After a successful racing career, Foolish Pleasure enjoyed success as a stallion as well. He died of colic in 1994 at age 22 at his owner’s ranch in Wyoming a year after being retired from stud duty.

D. Wayne Lukas- Still training at age 74 with a much lower profile, Lukas followed Winning Colors’ Derby win with Thunder Gulch ’95, Grindstone ’96, and Charismatic ’99.

Jacinto Vasquez- Ruffian’s only rider and winner of two Derbies on Foolish Pleasure and Genuine Risk, also has the distinction of being the only rider to have beaten Secretariat twice (Angle Light and Onion). At 66, he is training horses in Ocala, Florida.

Angel Cordero- Retired from race riding in 1992 with three Derby wins (Cannonade’74, Bold Forbes ’76, and Spend A Buck ’85). Still periodically seen exercising horses at New York tracks at age 67, he also acts as agent for top rider John Velasquez.

Snidely Whiplash- The arch-villain of the Dudley Do-Right segments of Rocky and Bullwinkle lives on in endless reruns via the Cartoon Network as any Grandparent can attest.

Bert and Diana Firestone- Both aged 77; the Firestone’s are still active breeders and racers of thoroughbreds in the U.S. and Ireland.

Equal Rights Amendment- The ERA failed to get ratification by 35 states before deadline. Although it has been reintroduced in every Congress since 1982, the amendment’s support has withered with the years.

Connections of Eight Belles- Probably weary of being “baited by the rabble’s curse” in Macbeth’s words, trainer Larry Jones says he will retire at the end of this racing season. Owner, trainer, and jockey have a live candidate again this year in Louisiana Derby winner, Friesan Fire.

Before addressing this year’s classic, you may remember in last year’s John Henry profile we mentioned our inability to locate John’s first trainer, Phil Marino. He was most unfairly maligned for his supposed inability to train the future champion. Scanning the obituaries in the New Orleans Times Picayune last month, we ran across the following notice that to our knowledge was unreported by any racing news organization:

Philip Joseph Marino Sr.
MARINO Philip Joseph Marino, Sr. passed away Thursday, February 26, 2009 after a lengthy illness at his home in Maryland at the age of 59. Phil was a native of New Orleans, LA. He trained thoroughbred horses at various tracks across the country. He trained the legendary thoroughbred, John Henry, and won the Louisiana Futurity in 1977 at Evangeline Downs in Lafayette, LA. Survivors include: his mother, Nancy Edgecombe; his aunt, Nina Mae Chachere; his brother, Joseph Marino III and his wife, Angeli; his sister, Aaron Sealy and her husband, Frank; his grandson, Chase Michael Marino; two nephews: Jason and Wesley; two nieces: Lauren and Alexis; and finally his beloved Jack Russell Terrier, Specimen. Phil was preceded in death by his father, Joseph Marino, Jr.; his step-father, Aaron Edgecombe; his uncle, Robert Chachere; and his son, Philip Marino, Jr. Visitation will be at 9:00 AM Monday, March 2, 2009 with a Funeral Mass at 10:00 AM in the chapel at Jacob Schoen Funeral Home with interment at Greenwood Cemetery. Jacob Schoen Funeral Home, 3827 Canal Street, New Orleans, LA 70119 directing.

THIS YEAR’S DERBY-

If you followed our advice last year, you are, willingly or unwillingly, in league with our new President because like Mr. Obama our letter embraces “Hope and Change.” Change was all we had left after last year’s renewal, but a change of result this year is deeply hoped for. Our principal pick last year, Colonel John, was clobbered early in the race and finished bravely despite that. Long shot Gayego was hopelessly wide into the first turn trying to gain the lead and lost all chance. The Colonel later won the Travers and Gayego was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed and has raced with distinction in Dubai. All of which means only that we got it wrong.

This year again possesses the challenge of translating synthetic surface form to the dirt, appraising the new minimalist school of training for this grueling contest, and of course the relative strength of regional markets: West, Midwest, and East. This year we can add a fourth: Mideast, as in Dubai.

Will the flock of deep closers be compromised by a “petty pace?” Will the precocity of Dunkirk overcome his sound bite sized past performances? Can Friesan Fire hold his form with almost two months between starts? Can a son (Musket Man) of a stallion (Yonaguska) that stands a five iron from your editor’s farm in Nowheresville extend his Al Davis inspired “win baby win” consecutive Graded Stakes win streak to three?

All these queries and any of your own will be settled this Saturday in a few ticks over two minutes. Let’s take a look at the field:

WEST SIDE BERNIE- Ran decently in BC Juvenile and earned a triple digit Beyer in Revenge’s Wood but is more of an outsider here than East Side Bernie (Madoff) who is 100/1 to ever leave the gate.

MUSKET MAN- Has already outrun his pedigree in Tampa Bay and Ill Derby wins but mired in Rodney Dangerfield ratings. “Ooo I tell ya..can’t get no respect.” Probably in deep here but he is definitely more Musketeer than Mouseketeer.

MR. HOT STUFF- Full brother to last year’s pick, Colonel John, which you can imagine put him on the screen early. Late bloomer (unlike John) has steadily moved forward and third place close in S.A. Derby was promising. Did not expect him in Louisville and fact that conservative trainer Eoin Harty is there says a lot. Expect a surprisingly good effort.

ADVICE- Yet another Pletcher (count ’em three) starter gets in off of last chance saloon win in the Lexington. Yes, Charismatic won the Derby off of that race and the Saints won a playoff game. Someday it will happen again. The advice is here is not this year.

HOLD ME BACK- Apropos name for long shot players as he is tempting though best efforts were on synthetic surfaces in Lane’s End (1st) and Blue Grass (2nd). One of three WinStar starters, this guy is trained by Cigar’s conditioner (Bill Mott) and partnered by three time winner Desormeaux. Pedigree has grass/synthetic lean as do past performance lines. Price could overcome that reservation.

FRIESAN FIRE- Was the backup in the Larry Jones stable until Old Fashioned’s career ending mishap in the Arkansas Derby. Long striding son of A.P. Indy swept the 3YO stakes series at Fair Grounds including a blowout in the La. Derby. Seven week layoff and no race beyond a mile and a sixteenth are only concerns. Friesan has torched the Churchill surface with final Derby work so probably can throw out the “forgotten horse” theory on this guy. Major player.

PAPA CLEM- We bet him at 17/1 when he got beat (2nd) a long neck by Pioneer, bet him again when a got beat (2nd) a long way by Friesan, and finally cashed in the Ark Derby. Another second generation (Papa was Clement Hirsch, owner is son Bo) homebred with predictably quality blood. Son of emerging super sire Smart Strike (Curlin et al.) and rock hard Miss Houdini. Trainer Stute and rider Bejarano deserve more respect than they are getting. This Clem is no Kadiddlehopper.

MINE THAT BIRD- The other first crop Birdstone was on our list early with his 2YO Canadian wins. Ran awful in the BC Juvenile and hasn’t shown us much at three. Hate to say it with our personal bets on the sire but Miney looks like a Flight of Fancy, Eh?

JOIN IN THE DANCE- Or more appropriately Backed into the Dance thanks to unexpected defection of Square Eddie. Was all the pace in his eventual fifth place finish in the Blue Grass and figures to play the rabbit for the Pletcher team that is banking on a big late move from Dunkirk. Prediction here is this Dance will end around after a mile.

REGAL RANSOM- The other Godolphin guy also summered at Saratoga at two and was thought to be the understudy until he upset D.P. in the UAE Derby. Same sire as Funny Cide and very likely to get first mover advantage on pacesetter Join in the Dance and has the pedigree to hang around late…very late.

CHOCOLATE CANDY- Ironic name for a homebred of diet queen, Jenny Craig. We always loved sire Candy Ride. This guy has chased Pioneer home twice but getting closer. Was way, way wide in the S.A. derby and still only a length behind at the wire. NoCal trainer Hollendorfer won’t get headlines but fade his action at your peril. Price will be big and you get Giacomo’s rider, Mike Smith, in the deal.

GENERAL QUARTERS- Retired high school principal claims horse for $20k and goes to Derby sounds like a stretch. But he was clear in the stretch in the Blue Grass. Also rans in the Blue Grass fare much better than winners when the game moves to Louisville. A first quarter of the field finish is our best hope for this General.

I WANT REVENGE- Respectable Cal efforts on synthetic surfaces were followed by freakish efforts in the Gotham and Wood at Aqueduct. Likely favorite is by the underrated Stephen Got Even (which was owned by disgraced CEO of Conseco Inc., Stephen Hilbert). IEAH crowd of Big Brown fame bought into the deal after big Gotham score. They kept trainer Jeff “I Want Syringe” Mullins, whose illegal medication missteps rival Robert Downey, Jr. Only good biped in this picture is star teenage jock, Joe Talamo, who began exercising horses age twelve right here in Folsom, La.

ATOMIC RAIN- Someone has to be number twenty and he is it. Nuclear winter will win a Derby before Atomic Rain.

DUNKIRK- This guy was a $3.7 mill yearling and may well end up being a bargain. Was sent off the chalk in the Florida Derby before giving way to Quality Road in deep stretch. Now that quarter cracks have forced Q.R. to take the “road less traveled,” Dunny will likely get pounded at the Churchill windows. And if he doesn’t get there, we will see a recreation of the WWII Evacuation of Dunkirk.

PIONEER OF THE NILE- His wins are called ugly but they keep accumulating and horses he vanquished (Revenge and Clem) shipped East and notched Grade I wins. All starts are on synthetics but dirt works at Church impressive. Three time Derby winner Baffert trains and top rider Gomez opts to stay here over Dunkirk. Pedigree cries for Derby distance and if this guy is not in the frame the Pioneer will be a Pie in the Ear.

SUMMERBIRD- This son of Belmont winner Birdstone came from the clouds, off a maiden win, to finish a narrow third in the Arkansas Derby. Now when it comes to Swami Angles, you can’t beat this. Innisfree Farm’s only yearling is a colt by Birdstone foaled on the 86th birthday of your editor’s Dad. This Bird’s trainer is named Tim Ice. This is as close to a Derby start as we will ever get. We have to bet him. You, of course, don’t.

NOWHERE TO HIDE- Eleventh hour sneak in on Win Willy’s late scratch. Up the track in all Derby preps. Next start after Derby will be a non-winners of two. Respect trainer Zito but think the D. Wayne Derby flu may have spread to Nick’s barn.

DESERT PARTY- One of two Dubai brothers to take a shot this year. Both in a sense have dual citizenship as they are both U.S. bred and raced here as two year olds. He was a $2.1 mill yearling and is by Street Cry, sire of ‘07 winner Street Sense. Derby has evaded the hugely successful Godolphin enterprise but this year’s entrants are their strongest hand to date. If they don’t get a piece of it this year, they may become the deserted party.

FLYING PRIVATE- This we know: Ole D. Wayne would run Mr. Ed in the Derby if the alternative was not being in area code 502 on May’s first Saturday. Now this is not a bad horse but disappointed in the Ark Derby after placing in the Lane’s End. Do not think this private is first class.

THE PICK:

This year’s final cut has been as tough as any in memory. By definition the favorite, I Want Revenge, was a toss out. Next to go was Dunkirk. Despite his obvious talent, we worry that a start that looks like a Wal-Mart opening on Thanksgiving Friday could be tough on a colt with no 2YO experience. Pioneer of the Nile has done nothing not to like but short price and trying to win five straight cooled our enthusiasm. We’d love to see the Friesan Fire connections in the winner’s circle but the weak gallop out, after his torrid work, left us a bit apprehensive of a short priced horse. The Dubai contingent looks like they will be closer this year than any previous and Desert Party was our last finalist to go.

This left us with our pick who will be double digit odds for sure. His second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby to Pioneer left no doubt about his ability to close or to stay. His overland route probably approached a mile and a quarter that day so we know he can handle the Derby distance.

His sire, Candy Ride, has replicated his own ability in his progeny and his dam, Crownette, by Seattle Slew is replete with other classic names like Affirmed and Alydar.

Our pick is a deep closer so don’t lose heart if we are out of it early. We are relying on pilot Mike Smith to keep him out of trouble and wound tight for that big late run.

Owner Jenny Craig has been responsible for thousands of pounds of weight loss but this go round we’d like to put on some pounds and dollars. So how about a bite of CHOCOLATE CANDY!

LONGSHOT SPECIAL- More like a moonshot than a longshot. MR. HOT STUFF will likely be 50/1 but he was just behind CANDY in the S.A. Derby and is improving by the day. One more jump forward could put him right there.

THE BET- We will make a serious win/place play on CANDY and bet MR. across the board. Our exacta box will be the first three S.A. Derby finishers: PIONEER OF THE NILE-CHOCOLATE CANDY-MR. HOT STUFF. Needless to say we are looking for an IRS deduct if we hit any of this stuff.